Lake Virginia Invitational — Analysis

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W43). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,027 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Caleb Kinnear '29	Rollins College	14/14	231	382	+151	78th → 96th	10.8	0%	2.2 / 4.3	233
2	Peter Foley '26	Florida State University	14/14	340	324	-15	92nd → 91st	0.1	46%	2.6 / 2.7	339
3	Fiona Froelich '28	Jacksonville University Lady Fins	14/14	205	264	+59	73rd → 83rd	2.3	26%	4.1 / 4.7	206
4	Elliot Hellstrom '30	Jacksonville University Fins	14/14	231	212	-19	78th → 75th	0.3	61%	4.6 / 4.3	231
5	Zach O'Connor '27	University of South Florida	14/14	214	218	+4	75th → 76th	0.0	61%	4.8 / 4.6	214
6	Harrison Vanderground '28	University of Miami	10/14	168	211	+43	67th → 75th	0.8	39%	4.9 / 5.2	168
6	Alan Timms '30	University of Miami	4/14	225	242	+17	77th → 80th	0.1	67%	5.0 / 4.5	225
7	Carlos Beckmann '29	University of Central Florida	14/14	251	85	-167	81st → 51st	17.0	99%	6.0 / 4.0	236
8	Oscar Gilroy '27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	8/14	96	95	-1	54th → 54th	0.0	92%	7.4 / 6.3	96
8	Carson Totino '29	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	6/14	89	156	+67	52nd → 65th	0.9	35%	6.0 / 6.4	90

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.	Rating after
1	Jack Adderley '28	Rollins College	14/14	209	271	+62	74th → 84th	2.2	13%	2.9 / 4.0	209
2	Matthew Ray '30	University of Miami	14/14	273	295	+22	84th → 87th	0.3	50%	3.0 / 3.1	274
3	Carter Weatherilt '28	Florida State University	14/14	230	208	-22	78th → 74th	0.3	54%	3.6 / 3.6	231
4	Sean Ellison '29	Jacksonville University Fins	14/14	173	164	-9	68th → 66th	0.0	39%	4.2 / 4.5	173
5	Robert Finora '27	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	14/14	153	169	+16	65th → 67th	0.2	40%	4.5 / 4.8	153
6	Lotty Hugo '30	Jacksonville University Lady Fins	14/14	169	148	-20	67th → 64th	0.3	60%	4.9 / 4.6	169
7	Ava Shakespeare '29	University of South Florida	14/14	120	101	-19	59th → 55th	0.2	77%	6.1 / 5.3	121
8	Zane Munro '29	University of Central Florida	14/14	48	26	-22	44th → 40th	0.2	80%	7.0 / 6.2	47