Bud Morrow Open Team Race

HostRollins
Date03/14/2026
TypeNOT ALLOWED Promotional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	12–0
2	Jacksonville University	Fins	9–3
3	University of Miami	Hurricanes	8–4
4	Rollins College	Tars	6–6
5	Clemson University	Tigers	8–6
6	University of South Florida	Bulls	7–7
7	Rollins College	Tars Women	7–7
8	University of South Florida	Bulls Women	7–7
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	1–13
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Midshipmen	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,966 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 55 of 66 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.396 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.01 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	7.95 school +0.40	Connor Demming / Caroline Uram Maison Koepke / Ava Cohen 2.64 Theo Westerlind / Belle Placa 2.77	86%	12–0 (100%)	+1.7
2	Jacksonville University Fins	3	7.05 school −0.22	Darby Smith / Natalie Dunlap Parker Thran / Ella Wisely Joshua Knowles / Nilias Vidarte 2.55	72%	9–3 (75%)	+0.4
3	University of Miami Hurricanes	7	5.89 school +0.35	Josh Becher / Aidan Weirich 1.73 Matthew Black / Harbor Scheuermann 1.98 Harrison Vanderground / Lauren Montgomery 1.58	45%	8–4 (67%)	+2.6
4	Rollins College Tars	5	6.43 home +0.38	Jack Adderley / Alexander Goldsmith 1.62 Milo Miller / Soleil Aurignac 2.44 Caleb Kinnear / Maggie Burnham 2.12 4–4 Ka Hamner / Maggie Burnham 1.67 2–2	58%	6–6 (50%)	−0.9
5	Clemson University Tigers	6	5.25 school −0.46	Mitchell Hnatt / Bryson Eaton 2.21 Ian Richardson / Madeleine Harris 1.95 Luke Adams / Taylor Bulwinkle 1.46	47%	8–6 (57%)	+1.4
6	University of South Florida Bulls	4	5.89	Efe Guder / Macy Parke 2.71 Zach O'Connor / Hannes Leonard Garrett Floerchinger / Sienna Curcio 1.28	59%	7–7 (50%)	−1.2
7	Rollins College Tars Women	2	6.95 home +0.38	Annie Samis / Jane Mckenzie 2.45 Adelaide Matzky / Julia Scott 2.05 Shay Bridge / Mollie Wood 2.08	78%	7–7 (50%)	−4.0
8	University of South Florida Bulls Women	8	5.02	Sara Menesale / Ruth Bergman 1.95 Marina Dreyfuss / Melissa Janes 1.89 Reese Ambrose / Esme Pray	43%	7–7 (50%)	+1.0
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	9	3.27 school −0.34	John Sanderson / Haylie Dawson Kevin Ryan / Ava Candage 1.25 Benjamin Mohrman / Peter Mascilli 1.45	18%	1–13 (7%)	−1.5
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	10	1.74 school −0.34	Alden Hughes / Madalyn Richardson 0.07 Caleb Keister / Gentry Schneider Carson Totino / Sean Warwick	4%	1–13 (7%)	+0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	College of Charleston Cougars	7.95	10.95	12–0	10.3	≥+3.00	2.6	15%
3	University of Miami Hurricanes	5.89	7.15	8–4	5.4	+1.27	2.4	7%
5	Clemson University Tigers	5.25	5.92	8–6	6.6	+0.67	0.7	25%
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	1.74	2.39	1–13	0.6	+0.65	0.2	47%
8	University of South Florida Bulls Women	5.02	5.52	7–7	6.0	+0.50	0.4	34%
2	Jacksonville University Fins	7.05	7.28	9–3	8.6	+0.24	0.1	54%
4	Rollins College Tars	6.43	5.97	6–6	6.9	−0.45	0.3	84%
6	University of South Florida Bulls	5.89	5.32	7–7	8.2	−0.57	0.5	88%
9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	3.27	1.48	1–13	2.5	−1.78	1.8	99%
7	Rollins College Tars Women	6.95	5.12	7–7	11.0	−1.83	5.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Connor Demming	College of Charleston	1.99	4.99	12–0	10.3	≥+3.00	2.6	15%
Maison Koepke	College of Charleston	2.64	5.64	12–0	10.3	≥+3.00	2.6	15%
Theo Westerlind	College of Charleston	2.77	5.77	12–0	10.3	≥+3.00	2.6	15%
Josh Becher	University of Miami	1.73	2.99	8–4	5.4	+1.27	2.4	7%
Matthew Black	University of Miami	1.98	3.25	8–4	5.4	+1.27	2.4	7%
Harrison Vanderground	University of Miami	1.58	2.84	8–4	5.4	+1.27	2.4	7%
Mitchell Hnatt	Clemson University	2.21	2.88	8–6	6.6	+0.67	0.7	25%
Ian Richardson	Clemson University	1.95	2.62	8–6	6.6	+0.67	0.7	25%
Luke Adams	Clemson University	1.46	2.12	8–6	6.6	+0.67	0.7	25%
Alden Hughes	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	0.07	0.72	1–13	0.6	+0.65	0.2	47%
Caleb Keister	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	0.94	1.58	1–13	0.6	+0.65	0.2	47%
Carson Totino	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	0.64	1.29	1–13	0.6	+0.65	0.2	47%
Sara Menesale	University of South Florida	1.95	2.45	7–7	6.0	+0.50	0.4	34%
Marina Dreyfuss	University of South Florida	1.89	2.39	7–7	6.0	+0.50	0.4	34%
Reese Ambrose	University of South Florida	1.01	1.51	7–7	6.0	+0.50	0.4	34%
Darby Smith	Jacksonville University	2.13	2.37	9–3	8.6	+0.24	0.1	54%
Parker Thran	Jacksonville University	2.27	2.51	9–3	8.6	+0.24	0.1	54%
Joshua Knowles	Jacksonville University	2.55	2.79	9–3	8.6	+0.24	0.1	54%
Caleb Kinnear	Rollins College	2.12	1.85	4–4	4.4	−0.27	0.1	78%
Jack Adderley	Rollins College	1.62	1.16	6–6	6.9	−0.45	0.3	84%
Milo Miller	Rollins College	2.44	1.98	6–6	6.9	−0.45	0.3	84%
Efe Guder	University of South Florida	2.71	2.14	7–7	8.2	−0.57	0.5	88%
Zach O'Connor	University of South Florida	1.58	1.01	7–7	8.2	−0.57	0.5	88%
Garrett Floerchinger	University of South Florida	1.28	0.71	7–7	8.2	−0.57	0.5	88%
Ka Hamner	Rollins College	1.67	0.42	2–2	2.5	−1.24	0.4	97%
John Sanderson	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	0.70	-1.08	1–13	2.5	−1.78	1.8	99%
Kevin Ryan	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.25	-0.53	1–13	2.5	−1.78	1.8	99%
Benjamin Mohrman	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.45	-0.33	1–13	2.5	−1.78	1.8	99%
Annie Samis	Rollins College	2.45	0.61	7–7	11.0	−1.83	5.4	>99%
Adelaide Matzky	Rollins College	2.05	0.22	7–7	11.0	−1.83	5.4	>99%
Shay Bridge	Rollins College	2.08	0.24	7–7	11.0	−1.83	5.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	College of Charleston Cougars	University of Miami Hurricanes	90%
1	2	Rollins College Tars	Clemson University Tigers	79%
1	3	Jacksonville University Fins	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	98%
1	4	Rollins College Tars Women	University of South Florida Bulls	79%
1	5	University of South Florida Bulls Women	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	97%
1	6	University of Miami Hurricanes	Rollins College Tars	31%	upset
1	7	College of Charleston Cougars	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	99%
1	8	Clemson University Tigers	University of South Florida Bulls	37%	upset
1	9	Jacksonville University Fins	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	100%
1	10	University of South Florida Bulls Women	Rollins College Tars Women	12%	upset
1	11	Rollins College Tars	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	95%
1	12	University of Miami Hurricanes	University of South Florida Bulls	51%
1	13	College of Charleston Cougars	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	100%
1	14	Clemson University Tigers	Rollins College Tars Women	15%	upset
1	15	Jacksonville University Fins	University of South Florida Bulls Women	88%
1	16	University of South Florida Bulls	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	93%
1	17	Rollins College Tars	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	99%
1	18	University of Miami Hurricanes	Rollins College Tars Women	25%	upset
1	19	College of Charleston Cougars	Jacksonville University Fins	72%
1	20	Clemson University Tigers	University of South Florida Bulls Women	56%
1	21	University of South Florida Bulls	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	98%
1	22	Rollins College Tars Women	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	98%
1	23	Jacksonville University Fins	Rollins College Tars	72%
1	24	University of Miami Hurricanes	Clemson University Tigers	65%
1	25	College of Charleston Cougars	University of South Florida Bulls Women	95%
1	26	Rollins College Tars Women	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	99%
1	27	Jacksonville University Fins	University of South Florida Bulls	77%
1	28	Clemson University Tigers	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	88%
1	29	College of Charleston Cougars	Rollins College Tars	80%
1	30	University of South Florida Bulls Women	University of Miami Hurricanes	29%	upset
1	31	Jacksonville University Fins	Rollins College Tars Women	54%
1	32	Clemson University Tigers	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	97%
1	33	College of Charleston Cougars	University of South Florida Bulls	89%
1	34	University of Miami Hurricanes	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	93%
1	35	Rollins College Tars	University of South Florida Bulls Women	83%
1	36	Jacksonville University Fins	Clemson University Tigers	86%
1	37	College of Charleston Cougars	Rollins College Tars Women	74%
1	38	University of Miami Hurricanes	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	98%
1	39	Rollins College Tars	University of South Florida Bulls	66%
1	40	University of South Florida Bulls Women	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	85%
1	41	College of Charleston Cougars	Clemson University Tigers	94%
1	42	University of Miami Hurricanes	Jacksonville University Fins	24%	upset
1	43	Rollins College Tars	Rollins College Tars Women	41%	upset
1	44	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	19%	upset
1	45	University of South Florida Bulls	University of South Florida Bulls Women	71%
1	46	College of Charleston Cougars	University of Miami Hurricanes	88%
1	47	College of Charleston Cougars	Jacksonville University Fins	70%
1	48	College of Charleston Cougars	Rollins College Tars	81%
1	49	Jacksonville University Fins	University of Miami Hurricanes	76%
1	50	University of Miami Hurricanes	Rollins College Tars	36%	upset
1	51	Jacksonville University Fins	Rollins College Tars	74%
1	52	Rollins College Tars Women	University of South Florida Bulls	73%
1	53	University of South Florida Bulls Women	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	96%
1	54	Clemson University Tigers	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	88%
1	55	University of South Florida Bulls Women	Rollins College Tars Women	13%	upset
1	56	University of South Florida Bulls	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	93%
1	57	Clemson University Tigers	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	97%
1	58	University of South Florida Bulls Women	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	85%
1	59	Rollins College Tars Women	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	99%
1	60	University of South Florida Bulls	Clemson University Tigers	67%
1	61	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	81%
1	62	University of South Florida Bulls	University of South Florida Bulls Women	72%
1	63	Rollins College Tars Women	Clemson University Tigers	84%
1	64	University of South Florida Bulls	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	98%
1	65	Rollins College Tars Women	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	97%
1	66	Clemson University Tigers	University of South Florida Bulls Women	55%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Fins	Hurricanes	Tars	Tigers	Bulls	Women	Women	Mariners	Midshipmen
College of Charleston Cougars	12–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	9–3	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	8–4	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W
Rollins College Tars	13–13	L	L	L	✕	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Clemson University Tigers	8–6	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	14–14	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	✕	W	W
Rollins College Tars Women	13–13	L	L	L	✕	W	L	✕	L	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls Women	14–14	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2–26	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	✕
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Midshipmen	2–26	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
2	Tars	1-3-4	def.	Tigers	2-5-6
3	Fins	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
4	Tars Women	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
5	Bulls Women	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
6	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Tars	1-5-6
7	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
8	Tigers	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
9	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
10	Bulls Women	1-2-6	def.	Tars Women	3-4-5
11	Tars	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
12	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
13	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
14	Tigers	1-3-5	def.	Tars Women	2-4-6
15	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Bulls Women	3-4-6
16	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
17	Tars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
18	Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.	Tars Women	2-4-5
19	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
20	Tigers	2-3-5	def.	Bulls Women	1-4-6
21	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
22	Tars Women	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
23	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Tars	4-5-6
24	Hurricanes	1-4-5	def.	Tigers	2-3-6
25	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls Women	4-5-6
26	Tars Women	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
27	Fins	2-3-5	def.	Bulls	1-4-6
28	Tigers	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
29	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tars	3-5-6
30	Bulls Women	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
31	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tars Women	3-4-6
32	Tigers	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
33	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
34	Hurricanes	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
35	Tars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls Women	3-4-6
36	Fins	1-3-5	def.	Tigers	2-4-6
37	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Tars Women	3-4-6
38	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
39	Tars	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
40	Bulls Women	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
41	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
42	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Fins	3-4-5
43	Tars	1-3-5	def.	Tars Women	2-4-6
44	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
45	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Bulls Women	3-5-6
46	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	2-5-6
47	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
48	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Tars	2-3-6
49	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
50	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Tars	3-5-6
51	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Tars	3-4-6
52	Tars Women	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
53	Bulls Women	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
54	Tigers	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
55	Bulls Women	1-2-5	def.	Tars Women	3-4-6
56	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
57	Tigers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
58	Bulls Women	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
59	Tars Women	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
60	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Tigers	2-4-5
61	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
62	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Bulls Women	1-5-6
63	Tars Women	1-2-3	def.	Tigers	4-5-6
64	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
65	Tars Women	1-3-5	def.	Mariners	2-4-6
66	Tigers	1-3-5	def.	Bulls Women	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Connor Demming '27 Maison Koepke '27 Theo Westerlind '28	Caroline Uram '28 Ava Cohen '29 Belle Placa '29
Jacksonville University	Fins	Darby Smith '28 Joshua Knowles '26 Parker Thran '28	Natalie Dunlap '28 Nilias Vidarte '26 Ella Wisely '27
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Harrison Vanderground '28 Josh Becher '26 Matthew Black '29	Lauren Montgomery '29 Aidan Weirich '28 Harbor Scheuermann '29
Rollins College	Tars	Caleb Kinnear '29 Jack Adderley '28 Ka Hamner '26 Milo Miller '27	Maggie Burnham '26 Alexander Goldsmith '28 Soleil Aurignac '29
Clemson University	Tigers	Ian Richardson '29 Luke Adams '28 Mitchell Hnatt '28	Madeleine Harris '29 Taylor Bulwinkle '28 Bryson Eaton '28
University of South Florida	Bulls	Efe Guder '28 Garrett Floerchinger '26 Zach O'Connor '27	Macy Parke '28 Sienna Curcio '26 Hannes Leonard '27
Rollins College	Tars Women	Adelaide Matzky '29 Annie Samis '29 Shay Bridge '28	Julia Scott '27 Jane Mckenzie '27 Mollie Wood '29
University of South Florida	Bulls Women	Marina Dreyfuss '27 Reese Ambrose '29 Sara Menesale '28	Melissa Janes '26 Esme Pray '29 Ruth Bergman '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Benjamin Mohrman '29 John Sanderson '29 Kevin Ryan '29	Peter Mascilli '29 Haylie Dawson '29 Ava Candage '29
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Midshipmen	Alden Hughes '29 Caleb Keister '26 Carson Totino '29	Madalyn Richardson '29 Gentry Schneider '29 Sean Warwick '28

Conditions — 03/14/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 68% · Pressure 1018.3 hPa

Temperature

75°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 67°F

Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.1 kn

avg · max 8.8 kn

Gusts to 19.4 kn

From ENE (68°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1018.3 hPa Rain0.05 in

What this breeze does at Rollins — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Rollins in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rollins by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Rollins).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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