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SAISA Open Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT
College of Charleston College of Charleston Will Rucker '28 4 8 7 3 6 2 1 2 33
College of Charleston College of Charleston Thomas Kraak '28 7 5 4 2 2 1 6 9 36
University of Miami University of Miami Jackson Bjorklund '29 1 13 6 1 1 4 4 7 37
College of Charleston College of Charleston Connor Demming '27 3 7 1 6 4 5 3 11 40
College of Charleston College of Charleston Elliott Lipp '30 6 1 3 11 12 3 7 8 51
Rollins College Rollins College Caleb Kinnear '29 9 6 11 4 7 11 2 1 51
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Callen Burnett '29 2 11 12 5 5 6 5 10 56
Auburn University Auburn University Brody Wood '30 8 14 13 7 3 7 8 3 63
University of Miami University of Miami Alan Timms '30 13 4 5 10 9 12 9 4 66
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Morgan Smith '27 5 9 9 9 8 9 12 6 67
University of Miami University of Miami Joe Comer V '30 14 3 2 8 10 8 10 13 68
University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Carlos Beckmann '29 12 10 8 15 11 10 11 5 82
University of Miami University of Miami David Webb '28 11 2 10 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS 99
Rollins College Rollins College Matthew Sexton '28 10 12 14 13 13 13 13 12 100
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Noah Scholtz '29 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 115
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Auburn UniversityAuburn University Tigers223315223315223315223315223315223315223315223315

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.25); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  15 boats · 8 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Will Rucker '28College of Charleston Cougars 48/83.183.98+0.8085th → 95th1.613%4.1 / 6.2
2Thomas Kraak '28College of Charleston Cougars 38/83.28u3.74+0.4686th → 94th0.628%4.5 / 6.0
3Jackson Bjorklund '29University of Miami Hurricanes 38/82.323.51+1.1961st → 91st3.17%4.6 / 8.0
4Connor Demming '27College of Charleston Cougars 18/82.783.50+0.7276th → 91st1.321%5.0 / 7.0
5Caleb Kinnear '29Rollins College Tars 18/82.622.88+0.2668th → 79th0.232%6.4 / 7.4
5Elliott Lipp '30College of Charleston Cougars 28/82.952.70−0.2681st → 72nd0.248%6.4 / 6.7
7Callen Burnett '29North Carolina State University8/83.222.69−0.5285th → 72nd0.972%7.0 / 6.1
8Brody Wood '30Auburn University8/82.09u2.30+0.2154th → 60th0.139%7.9 / 8.5
9Alan Timms '30University of Miami Hurricanes 28/82.002.20+0.2151st → 58th0.141%8.2 / 8.8
10Morgan Smith '27Jacksonville University8/82.762.33−0.4275th → 61st0.677%8.4 / 7.1
11Joe Comer V '30University of Miami Hurricanes 48/81.771.86+0.0944th → 47th0.038%8.5 / 9.2
12Carlos Beckmann '29University of Central Florida8/81.771.56−0.2244th → 39th0.165%10.2 / 9.3
13David Webb '28University of Miami Hurricanes 18/82.532.17−0.3664th → 57th0.298%12.4 / 7.5
14Matthew Sexton '28Rollins College Tars 28/81.470.85−0.6236th → 19th1.193%12.5 / 9.8
15Noah Scholtz '29Florida Institute of Technology8/80.01-2.01−2.026th → 1st3.291%14.4 / 12.4

Conditions — 09/12/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

84°F
↑ 89°F   ↓ 79°F
Feels like 95°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.3 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover72% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1016.5 hPa Rain0.42 in

What this breeze does at U. Miami — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at U. Miami in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at U. Miami by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at U. Miami).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →