| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Eckerd College | Tritons | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
University of Miami | Hurricanes | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Florida State University | Seminoles | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,110 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 21 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.388 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 33% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston | 9.96 | 12.96 | 8–0 | 7.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 60% |
| 2 | Eckerd College | 7.02 | 9.27 | 6–2 | 3.7 | +2.24 | 3.6 | 3% |
| 4 | University of Miami | 4.94 | 6.27 | 2–6 | 0.8 | +1.33 | 1.3 | 18% |
| 5 | North Carolina State University | 6.39 | 5.03 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.36 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University | 8.30 | 6.81 | 4–4 | 5.6 | −1.49 | 1.8 | 98% |
| 6 | Florida State University | 5.82 | 2.82 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Tritons | Fins | Hurricanes | Wolfpack | Seminoles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 8–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Eckerd College Tritons | 6–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 4–4 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Miami Hurricanes | 2–6 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tritons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Tritons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tritons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seminoles | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Tritons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Tritons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Fins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Charlie Allen '28 Jonnie Ciffolillo '27 Pierce Olsen '29 |
Malia Deane '29 Belle Placa '29 Ava Cohen '29 |
|
Eckerd College | Tritons | Jordan Vieira '28 Peter Miller '29 Pj Rodrigues '28 |
Tia Soultanakis '26 Peyton Seidle '29 Avery Guck '28 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Cole Schweda '27 Hank Seum '27 Patrick Igoe '26 |
Taylor Collison '28 Jesse Anderson '27 Reagan Carris '26 |
|
University of Miami | Hurricanes | David Webb '28 Harrison Vanderground '28 Oliver West '27 |
Christopher Mccollum '28 Grace Harvey '29 Isabelle Bornebusch '29 |
|
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | Callen Burnett '29 Kevin Gosselin '27 Ryan Brelage '28 |
Shea Hoffacker '27 Eleanor Crandall '29 Megan Kramer '28 |
|
Florida State University | Seminoles | Carter Weatherilt '28 Peter Foley '26 Samantha Eckert '29 |
Suzie Nguyen '29 Joshua Osborne '27 Olivia Figley '26 Olivia Hoover '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
