Clemson University '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.39 (fleet 1.86) | 289 of 328 | +0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–28 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 0–5 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 13–11 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (47 matches) the record is 19–28 against 16.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | SAISA Women's Top 6 Team Race | skipper | 1.87 | -1.13 | 0–5 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2025-03-01 | The Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.75 | 2.63 | 3–6 | 2.0 | +0.88 | 0.7 | 29% |
| 2024-04-05 | SAISA Spring Open Team Race Championships | skipper | 1.76 | 1.49 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2024-03-30 | Bulldogs/Tigers Palmetto State Showdown Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | 2.56 | 10–2 | 7.9 | +0.94 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 2023-03-04 | Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | skipper | 0.97 | 1.38 | 3–6 | 2.7 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 54% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ashton Loring |  Oceanside Collegiate Academy |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
