| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clemson University | Tigers | 10–2 |
| 2 |  |
The Citadel | Bulldogs | 2–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,468 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.524 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +1.19 ± 0.91: an orderly event, more orderly than 100% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson University Tigers | 1 | 4.82 school +0.26 | Nilah Miller / Sam Heighway 1.75 Antonio Priskich / Jonathan Caruso 1.11 Ashton Loring / Vanessa Marahrens 1.62 | 66% | 10–2 (83%) | +2.1 |
| 2 | The Citadel Bulldogs | 2 | 4.15 school +0.07, home +0.41 | Kenneth Buck / Thomas Hester 1.45 Andrew Tollefson / Preston Cyr 1.54 Camden Hom / Ella Crider 0.64 | 34% | 2–10 (17%) | −2.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson University | 4.82 | 5.76 | 10–2 | 7.9 | +0.94 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 2 | The Citadel | 4.15 | 3.21 | 2–10 | 4.1 | −0.94 | 1.3 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nilah Miller | Clemson University | 1.75 | 2.69 | 10–2 | 7.9 | +0.94 | 1.3 | 17% |
| Antonio Priskich | Clemson University | 1.11 | 2.05 | 10–2 | 7.9 | +0.94 | 1.3 | 17% |
| Ashton Loring | Clemson University | 1.62 | 2.56 | 10–2 | 7.9 | +0.94 | 1.3 | 17% |
| Kenneth Buck | The Citadel | 1.45 | 0.51 | 2–10 | 4.1 | −0.94 | 1.3 | 95% |
| Andrew Tollefson | The Citadel | 1.54 | 0.60 | 2–10 | 4.1 | −0.94 | 1.3 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 65% | |
| 2 | 2 | The Citadel | Clemson University | 34% | upset |
| 3 | 3 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 66% | |
| 4 | 4 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 66% | |
| 5 | 5 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 66% | |
| 6 | 6 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 66% | |
| 7 | 7 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 66% | |
| 8 | 8 | The Citadel | Clemson University | 34% | upset |
| 9 | 9 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 66% | |
| 10 | 10 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 67% | |
| 11 | 11 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 67% | |
| 12 | 12 | Clemson University | The Citadel | 67% |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 0–1 | ✕ | L |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 1–0 | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 0–1 | ✕ | L |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 1–0 | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tigers | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 DSQ |
| 9 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 DSQ | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clemson University | Tigers | Antonio Priskich '27 Ashton Loring '26 Nilah Miller '25 |
Jonathan Caruso '25 Vanessa Marahrens '26 Sam Heighway '25 |
|
The Citadel | Bulldogs | Andrew Tollefson '26 Camden Hom '26 Kenneth Buck '26 |
Preston Cyr '27 Ella Crider '27 Thomas Hester '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
