Embry-Riddle University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.72 (fleet -0.97) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–15 (0%) as crew 0–1 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 0–15 | 0–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 0–15 against 1.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-11 | The Turner Team Race | skipper | -0.62 | -3.62 | 0–12 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| 2023-03-04 | Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | skipper | -0.74 | -3.74 | 0–3 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| The Turner Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| SAISA South Spring Tournament / Gregg Popp Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | -1.19 |
| Mendelblatt Open SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Bud Morrow Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.6 | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| 2022 Triangle Tango Intercollegiate | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.7 | -2.11 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
