SAISA Open Fleet Race Champs (Tillman Trophy)

HostEckerd
Date04/08/2023
TypeConference Championship
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	24	28	52
2	University of Miami	Hurricanes	24	44	68
3	Florida State University	Seminoles	39	48	87
4	College of Charleston	Cougars	52	35	87
5	Jacksonville University	Fins	52	53	105
6	Eckerd College	Tritons	56	50	106
7	University of South Florida	Bulls	58	62	120
8	University of South Carolina	Gamecocks	99	48	147
9	Rollins College	Tars	79	72	151
10	The Citadel	Bulldogs	74	80	154
11	Clemson University	Tigers	99	65	164
12	Florida Institute of Technology	Panthers	72	101	173
13	University of Central Florida	Knights	78	98	176
14	Wake Forest University	Demon Deacons	109	88	197
15	University of North Carolina at Wilmington	Seahawks	90	128	218
16	Duke University	Blue Devils	94	125	219
17	Embry-Riddle University	Eagles	132	102	234

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	4	2	2	3	3	2	5	3	24	Adam Larson '24 Sean Harris '25
University of Miami	Hurricanes	6	1	3	1	2	4	6	1	24	Atlee Kohl '25 Natalie Elder '25
Florida State University	Seminoles	1	10	9	10	5	1	1	2	39	Mateo Rodriguez '23 Brady Parks '25
College of Charleston	Cougars	3	3	1	13	DSQ	7	2	5	52	Noah Zittrer '26 Noelle Owen '24
Jacksonville University	Fins	12	7	6	4	6	5	3	9	52	Emily Allen '25 Reagan Carris '26
Eckerd College	Tritons	17	5	4	2	1	6	14	7	56	Eden Nykamp '25 Elissa Martinez '23
University of South Florida	Bulls	13	8	10	8	4	3	4	8	58	Zachariah Schemel '25 Brilan Christopher '24
Florida Institute of Technology	Panthers	2	6	5	15	10	8	16	10	72	Brendan Smucker '25 Sofia Scarpa '26
The Citadel	Bulldogs	10	4	8	6	11	15	7	13	74	Gregory Walters '23 Gordan Stine '26
University of Central Florida	Knights	9	9	11	9	DSQ	10	8	4	78	Hudson Jenkins '25 Eric Bonifacic '25
Rollins College	Tars	7	12	13	11	9	9	12	6	79	Hilton Kamps '25 Angelina Khourisader '23
University of North Carolina at Wilmington	Seahawks	5	11	7	16	7	13	15	16	90	Nicholas Patin '26 Christine Moore '24
Duke University	Blue Devils	14	15	14	7	8	14	10	12	94	Ian Hoogenboom '25 Rio (Kang-Cheng) Asaka (Wey) '26
Clemson University	Tigers	8	13	12	14	13	11	13	15	99	William Turner '24 [1-3] Samantha Bialek '24 [4-8] Ian Bosse '25 [1-3] Jonathan Schrantz '24 [4-8]
University of South Carolina	Gamecocks	11	14	16	5	DSQ	12	9	14	99	Ian Street '23 Anna Soykan '25
Wake Forest University	Demon Deacons	15	17	15	12	12	16	11	11	109	Johnny Perkins '25 Catherine Carpenter '23
Embry-Riddle University	Eagles	16	16	17	17	14	DNF	17	17	132	Zechariah Frantz '25 Alexander Chidester '24

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
North Carolina State University	Wolfpack	3	2	3	2	7	3	7	1	28	Isabella Du Plessis '24 Olivia Sowa '24
College of Charleston	Cougars	2	4	6	9	4	2	5	3	35	Brandon Geller '23 Lucy Klempen '24
University of Miami	Hurricanes	4	1	1	5	6	6	9	12	44	Aidan Dennis '25 [1-6] Steven Hardee '26 [7-8] Sandra Heilshorn '23 [1-6] Teddy Bueres '24 [7-8]
Florida State University	Seminoles	6	5	8	8	3	1	8	9	48	Joey Meagher '24 [1-8] Olivia Hanley '24 [1-3] Katie Nelson '24 [4-8]
University of South Carolina	Gamecocks	9	7	10	1	1	8	10	2	48	David Manley '23 Thomas Gallant '25
Eckerd College	Tritons	8	6	2	10	5	10	1	8	50	Matthew Monts '24 [1-8] Amelia Johnson '25 [1-6] Brooks Jordan '24 [7-8]
Jacksonville University	Fins	5	9	5	13	2	12	3	4	53	Matthew King '24 Rori Bywater '25
University of South Florida	Bulls	13	3	4	7	9	14	6	6	62	Andreas Keswater '24 [1-6] Humberto Porrata '25 [7-8] Melissa Janes '26 [1-6] Emmy Digiacomo '24 [7-8]
Clemson University	Tigers	1	8	DSQ	6	10	4	4	14	65	Nilah Miller '25 Sam Heighway '25
Rollins College	Tars	7	12	9	4	12	5	13	10	72	Carly Orhan '23 Connor Teague '23
The Citadel	Bulldogs	10	14	12	3	8	13	2	OCS	80	Kenneth Buck '26 [1-8] Carolyn Staples '25 [1-3] Camden Hom '26 [4-8]
Wake Forest University	Demon Deacons	12	13	14	11	13	7	11	7	88	Ryan Travers '23 Mary Outland '25
University of Central Florida	Knights	11	11	11	14	11	11	16	13	98	Julian Larsen '26 Thomas Ingram '26
Florida Institute of Technology	Panthers	15	10	13	16	15	9	12	11	101	Brandon Depalma '24 [1-6] Sofia Scarpa '26 [7-8] Alvin Tang '24 [1-3] Annslee Maloy '26 [4-8]
Embry-Riddle University	Eagles	14	16	7	12	DSQ	16	14	5	102	Andrew Lam '26 Dom Aloysius Mandigma '23
Duke University	Blue Devils	17	17	16	15	14	15	15	16	125	Ryan Ringel '25 Benjamin Rubin '23
University of North Carolina at Wilmington	Seahawks	16	15	15	17	16	17	17	15	128	Felicity Davies '23 Sydney Mitchell '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.170+0.17

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
College of Charleston Cougars	2	2	2	4	4	4	6	6
The Citadel Bulldogs	11	11	11	13	13	13	15	15
Clemson University Tigers	1	1	1	3	3	3	5	5
Duke University Blue Devils	3	3	3	5	5	5	7	7
Eckerd College Tritons	4	4	4	6	6	6	8	8
Embry-Riddle University Eagles	5	5	5	7	7	7	9	9
Florida State University Seminoles	7	7	7	9	9	9	11	11
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers	6	6	6	8	8	8	10	10
Jacksonville University Fins	8	8	8	10	10	10	12	12
University of Miami Hurricanes	13	13	13	15	15	15	17	17
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	9	9	9	11	11	11	13	13
Rollins College Tars	10	10	10	12	12	12	14	14
University of South Carolina Gamecocks	15	15	15	17	17	17	2	2
University of South Florida Bulls	16	16	16	1	1	1	3	3
University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	14	14	14	16	16	16	1	1
University of Central Florida Knights	12	12	12	14	14	14	16	16
Wake Forest University Demon Deacons	17	17	17	2	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
College of Charleston Cougars	3	3	3	5	5	5	7	7
The Citadel Bulldogs	12	12	12	14	14	14	16	16
Clemson University Tigers	2	2	2	4	4	4	6	6
Duke University Blue Devils	4	4	4	6	6	6	8	8
Eckerd College Tritons	5	5	5	7	7	7	9	9
Embry-Riddle University Eagles	6	6	6	8	8	8	10	10
Florida State University Seminoles	8	8	8	10	10	10	12	12
Florida Institute of Technology Panthers	7	7	7	9	9	9	11	11
Jacksonville University Fins	9	9	9	11	11	11	13	13
University of Miami Hurricanes	14	14	14	16	16	16	1	1
North Carolina State University Wolfpack	10	10	10	12	12	12	14	14
Rollins College Tars	11	11	11	13	13	13	15	15
University of South Carolina Gamecocks	16	16	16	1	1	1	3	3
University of South Florida Bulls	17	17	17	2	2	2	4	4
University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	15	15	15	17	17	17	2	2
University of Central Florida Knights	13	13	13	15	15	15	17	17
Wake Forest University Demon Deacons	1	1	1	3	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Clemson University	William Turner '24 [1-3] Samantha Bialek '24 [4-8]	Ian Bosse '25 [1-3] Jonathan Schrantz '24 [4-8]
Tigers	Nilah Miller '25	Sam Heighway '25
College of Charleston	Noah Zittrer '26	Noelle Owen '24
Cougars	Brandon Geller '23	Lucy Klempen '24
Duke University	Ian Hoogenboom '25	Rio (Kang-Cheng) Asaka (Wey) '26
Blue Devils	Ryan Ringel '25	Benjamin Rubin '23
Eckerd College	Eden Nykamp '25	Elissa Martinez '23
Tritons	Matthew Monts '24 [1-8]	Amelia Johnson '25 [1-6] Brooks Jordan '24 [7-8]
Embry-Riddle University	Zechariah Frantz '25	Alexander Chidester '24
Eagles	Andrew Lam '26	Dom Aloysius Mandigma '23
Florida Institute of Technology	Brendan Smucker '25	Sofia Scarpa '26
Panthers	Brandon Depalma '24 [1-6] Sofia Scarpa '26 [7-8]	Alvin Tang '24 [1-3] Annslee Maloy '26 [4-8]
Florida State University	Mateo Rodriguez '23	Brady Parks '25
Seminoles	Joey Meagher '24 [1-8]	Olivia Hanley '24 [1-3] Katie Nelson '24 [4-8]
Jacksonville University	Emily Allen '25	Reagan Carris '26
Fins	Matthew King '24	Rori Bywater '25
North Carolina State University	Adam Larson '24	Sean Harris '25
Wolfpack	Isabella Du Plessis '24	Olivia Sowa '24
Rollins College	Hilton Kamps '25	Angelina Khourisader '23
Tars	Carly Orhan '23	Connor Teague '23
The Citadel	Gregory Walters '23	Gordan Stine '26
Bulldogs	Kenneth Buck '26 [1-8]	Carolyn Staples '25 [1-3] Camden Hom '26 [4-8]
University of Central Florida	Hudson Jenkins '25	Eric Bonifacic '25
Knights	Julian Larsen '26	Thomas Ingram '26
University of Miami	Atlee Kohl '25	Natalie Elder '25
Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 [1-6] Steven Hardee '26 [7-8]	Sandra Heilshorn '23 [1-6] Teddy Bueres '24 [7-8]
University of North Carolina at Wilmington	Nicholas Patin '26	Christine Moore '24
Seahawks	Felicity Davies '23	Sydney Mitchell '23
University of South Carolina	Ian Street '23	Anna Soykan '25
Gamecocks	David Manley '23	Thomas Gallant '25
University of South Florida	Zachariah Schemel '25	Brilan Christopher '24
Bulls	Andreas Keswater '24 [1-6] Humberto Porrata '25 [7-8]	Melissa Janes '26 [1-6] Emmy Digiacomo '24 [7-8]
Wake Forest University	Johnny Perkins '25	Catherine Carpenter '23
Demon Deacons	Ryan Travers '23	Mary Outland '25

Conditions — 04/08/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

79°F

↑ 81°F ↓ 73°F

Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.6 kn

avg · max 10.5 kn

Gusts to 21.0 kn

From SSW (204°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1018.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn · NE 11 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Eckerd: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.05 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.25 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Eckerd by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (55 labelled days at Eckerd).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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