| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rollins College | Tars | 5–3 |
| 2 |  |
The Citadel | Bulldogs | 5–3 |
| 2 |  |
Clemson University | Tigers | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 5–3 |
| 5 |  |
Florida Institute of Technology | Panthers | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Embry-Riddle University | Eagles | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,415 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 21 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.515 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.31 ± 0.42: a typical event, more orderly than 19% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | The Citadel | 3.88 | 4.96 | 5–3 | 3.5 | +1.08 | 1.2 | 18% |
| 2 | Clemson University | 4.16 | 4.78 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 1 | Rollins College | 4.69 | 4.65 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 5 | Florida Institute of Technology | 2.39 | 1.52 | 1–4 | 1.4 | −0.87 | 0.2 | 94% |
| 4 | University of South Florida | 5.75 | 4.37 | 5–3 | 6.8 | −1.38 | 2.0 | 98% |
| 6 | Embry-Riddle University | 0.21 | -2.79 | 0–5 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Buck | The Citadel | 1.46 | 2.54 | 5–3 | 3.5 | +1.08 | 1.2 | 18% |
| Andrew Tollefson | The Citadel | 1.44 | 2.52 | 5–3 | 3.5 | +1.08 | 1.2 | 18% |
| Nilah Miller | Clemson University | 1.68 | 2.30 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 37% |
| Antonio Priskich | Clemson University | 1.07 | 1.69 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 37% |
| Julia Scott | Rollins College | 1.32 | 1.38 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Jackson Mcgeough | Rollins College | 1.40 | 1.36 | 5–3 | 5.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Ka Hamner | Rollins College | 1.20 | 1.01 | 2–1 | 2.1 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Brendan Smucker | Florida Institute of Technology | 1.73 | 0.86 | 1–4 | 1.4 | −0.87 | 0.2 | 94% |
| Annslee Maloy | Florida Institute of Technology | 0.34 | -0.53 | 1–4 | 1.4 | −0.87 | 0.2 | 94% |
| Andreas Keswater | University of South Florida | 2.33 | 0.95 | 5–3 | 6.8 | −1.38 | 2.0 | 98% |
| Jordan Byrd | University of South Florida | 2.12 | 0.74 | 5–3 | 6.8 | −1.38 | 2.0 | 98% |
| Brilan Christopher | University of South Florida | 1.31 | -0.07 | 5–3 | 6.8 | −1.38 | 2.0 | 98% |
| Zechariah Frantz | Embry-Riddle University | 0.80 | -2.20 | 0–5 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Josh Rosen | Embry-Riddle University | -0.29 | -3.29 | 0–5 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
| Timothy Dolan | Embry-Riddle University | -0.25 | -3.25 | 0–5 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Tars | Bulldogs | Tigers | Bulls | Panthers | Eagles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollins College Tars | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Clemson University Tigers | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–2 | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Florida Institute of Technology Panthers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Embry-Riddle University Eagles | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Tars | Bulldogs | Tigers | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollins College Tars | 1–2 | ✕ | L | L | W |
| The Citadel Bulldogs | 2–1 | W | ✕ | W | L |
| Clemson University Tigers | 1–2 | W | L | ✕ | L |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–1 | L | W | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Tars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Tars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Tars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Tigers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Panthers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Tigers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Bulls | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tars | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Tars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulls | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-3-6 |
| 19 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Bulls | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Tigers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tars | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rollins College | Tars | Hilton Kamps '25 Jackson Mcgeough '25 Julia Scott '27 Ka Hamner '26 |
Jane Mckenzie '27 Angelina Khourisader '23 Julia Scott '27 Maggie Burnham '26 Sam Frushone '27 |
|
The Citadel | Bulldogs | Andrew Tollefson '26 Camden Hom '26 Kenneth Buck '26 |
Thomas Hester '27 Alana Hantz '27 Carolyn Staples '25 |
|
Clemson University | Tigers | Antonio Priskich '27 Nilah Miller '25 Rowan Barnes '26 |
Jack Houseal '27 Sam Heighway '25 Vanessa Marahrens '26 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Andreas Keswater '24 Brilan Christopher '24 Jordan Byrd '24 |
Melissa Janes '26 Garrett Floerchinger '26 Dana Aljasir '27 |
|
Florida Institute of Technology | Panthers | Annslee Maloy '26 Brendan Smucker '25 William Mullray '26 |
Lara Sloep '27 Madison Shore '27 Thomas Mccormack Iii '25 |
|
Embry-Riddle University | Eagles | Josh Rosen '26 Timothy Dolan '26 Zechariah Frantz '25 |
Rylie Cataldo '27 Paige Arneson '25 Suhas Medidi '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
