North Carolina State University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.22 (fleet 1.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–4 (20%) as crew 5–4 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | — | 5–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 6–8 against 6.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | SAISA Women's Top 6 Team Race | skipper | 1.56 | 1.17 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 2025-04-05 | SAISA Open Team Race Champs | crew | 2.59 | 2.36 | 5–4 | 5.3 | −0.23 | 0.0 | 77% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lyla Solway |  Marthas Vineyard RHS |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
