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SAISA North Fall Tournament

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 3 13 16
2 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 16 3 19
3 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Tar Heels 18 7 25
4 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 10 15 25
5 University of North Carolina University of North Carolina Rams 20 10 30
6 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 19 18 37
7 Wake Forest University Wake Forest University Demon Deacons 14 26 40
8 Vanderbilt University Vanderbilt University Commodores 16 26 42
9 Clemson University Clemson University Orange 22 22 44
10 University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 27 32 59
11 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 33 26 59
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Clemson UniversityClemson University Orange222
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers111
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Rams666
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels555
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror444
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack333
University of TennesseeUniversity of Tennessee Volunteers999
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks777
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub888
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University Commodores101010
Wake Forest UniversityWake Forest University Demon Deacons111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Clemson UniversityClemson University Orange333
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers222
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Rams777
University of North CarolinaUniversity of North Carolina Tar Heels666
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror555
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack444
University of TennesseeUniversity of Tennessee Volunteers101010
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks888
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub999
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University Commodores111111
Wake Forest UniversityWake Forest University Demon Deacons111

Conditions — 09/07/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1015.8 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From NNW (326°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1015.8 hPa Rain0.22 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UNC Wilmington: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.39 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UNC Wilmington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at UNC Wilmington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →