Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/23/2024
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	12–3
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	12–3
3	College of Charleston	Cougars	10–6
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	9–6
5	University of Miami	Hurricanes	8–7
6	Tulane University	Green Wave	7–8
7	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–9
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	5–11
9	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	0–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,158 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 73 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.532 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 57% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	10.41 school +0.26	Nathan Smith / Ryan Wahba 3.37 12–0 Jack Welburn / Madeline Smith 3.32 7–4 Henry Allgeier / Hunter Anderson 3.49 7–4 Nathan Smith / Darby Graham 3.35 1–4 Jack Welburn / Hunter Anderson 3.35 4–0 Henry Allgeier / Tanner Kelly 3.34 4–0 Jack Welburn / Ellie Alex 3.28 2–0 Henry Allgeier / Madeline Smith 3.46 2–0	66%	13–4 (76%)	+1.7
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	10.55 school +0.27	Mateo Di Blasi / Addi Harris 3.36 7–2 Diego Escobar / Caro Gaston 3.31 7–2 Mariner Fagan / Vaughn Slatoff 3.62 6–2 Mateo Di Blasi / Xavier Stoldt 3.19 6–2 Diego Escobar / Spencer Kriegstein 3.27 6–2 Mariner Fagan / Emily Panarella 3.74 3–2 Mariner Fagan / Spencer Kriegstein 3.70 4–0	71%	13–4 (76%)	+0.9
3	College of Charleston Cougars	4	9.73 school +0.39	Noah Zittrer / Lucy Klempen 3.17 6–4 Benjamin Dufour / Noelle Owen 3.23 6–4 Axel Stordahl / Andrea Melnik 2.88 4–2 Noah Zittrer / Aidan Iaconis 3.13 4–2 Alexander Gonzalez / Lucy Klempen 3.08 3–1 Axel Stordahl / Garrett Grenauer 2.83 3–1 Brandon Geller / Andrea Melnik 3.31 2–2 Benjamin Dufour / Garrett Grenauer 3.19 1–1 Axel Stordahl / Lucy Klempen 2.96 1–1	55%	10–6 (62%)	+1.2
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	1	10.73 school +0.30	Robert Bragg / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.63 6–2 Ryan Satterberg / Reese Bragg 3.21 6–2 Robert Bragg / Alexandra Pierce 3.64 3–5 Maddie Hawkins / James Paul 3.54 3–5 Ryan Satterberg / Elise Donovan 3.24 3–5 Maddie Hawkins / Lilly Baker 3.56 2–2 Maddie Hawkins / Elise Donovan 3.58 4–0	76%	9–7 (56%)	−3.2
5	University of Miami Hurricanes	7	9.04 school +0.17	Atlee Kohl / Natalie Elder 3.22 Aidan Dennis / Ana Stewart 2.98 4–6 Steven Hardee / Danny Riano 2.62 7–1 Steven Hardee / Teddy Bueres 2.69 1–5 Aidan Dennis / Teddy Bueres 3.00 5–1 Steven Hardee / Briana Hummel 2.63 1–1	39%	9–7 (56%)	+2.7
6	Tulane University Green Wave	5	9.52 school +0.06	Hamilton Barclay / Matheo Graham-Capasso 3.29 6–6 Kelly Holthus / Brady Starck 3.11 6–6 Zander King / Audrey Permenter 3.05 4–6 Zander King / Alex Makoid 3.07 3–3 Hamilton Barclay / Cj Ricci 3.29 1–3 Kelly Holthus / Gillian Perrell 3.03 1–3	49%	7–9 (44%)	−0.9
7	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	9.37 school +0.34, home +0.41	Diogo Silva / Ethan Tutt 2.85 Noyl Odom / Parker Younger 2.92 Parker Purrington / Ian Kissel 2.76 4–8 Parker Purrington / Asianna Acosta 2.78 3–1	45%	7–9 (44%)	−0.3
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	8.68 school +0.19	Jj Klempen / Anna Mcbride 2.70 Will Murray / Elijah Goldman 2.92 2–8 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Henry Breslin 2.74 2–8 Will Murray / Frances Depke 2.96 3–3 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Rachel Duggan 2.87 3–3	30%	5–11 (31%)	+0.2
9	George Washington University Revolutionaries	9	7.87 school +0.16	Jedidiah Bechtel / Ella Adelman 2.27 0–12 Oscar Macgillivray / Ian Milko 2.50 0–8 Tyler Wood / Andre Bochat 2.92 0–8 Oscar Macgillivray / Sam Schuhwerk 2.54 0–8 Tyler Wood / Annabelle O'Bryan 3.01 0–6 Jedidiah Bechtel / Sam Schuhwerk 2.35 0–4 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Annabelle O'Bryan 2.25 0–2	15%	0–16 (0%)	−2.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	University of Miami	9.04	9.91	9–7	6.3	+0.86	1.7	10%
1	U. S. Naval Academy	10.41	10.98	13–4	11.3	+0.57	0.7	25%
3	College of Charleston	9.73	10.09	10–6	8.8	+0.36	0.3	35%
2	Georgetown University	10.55	10.87	13–4	12.1	+0.32	0.2	41%
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	8.68	8.74	5–11	4.8	+0.05	0.0	57%
7	Old Dominion University	9.37	9.29	7–9	7.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
6	Tulane University	9.52	9.24	7–9	7.9	−0.28	0.2	78%
4	Dartmouth College	10.73	9.72	9–7	12.2	−1.01	2.4	98%
9	George Washington University	7.87	4.87	0–16	2.5	≤−3.00	3.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Atlee Kohl	University of Miami	3.22	4.09	9–7	6.3	+0.86	1.7	10%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	2.98	3.84	9–7	6.3	+0.86	1.7	10%
Benjamin Dufour	College of Charleston	3.23	3.67	7–5	5.8	+0.44	0.4	33%
Axel Stordahl	College of Charleston	2.88	3.19	8–4	7.2	+0.31	0.2	44%
Alexander Gonzalez	College of Charleston	3.08	3.09	3–1	3.0	+0.02	0.0	73%
Diogo Silva	Old Dominion University	2.85	2.78	7–9	7.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Noyl Odom	Old Dominion University	2.92	2.85	7–9	7.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Jedidiah Bechtel	George Washington University	2.27	-0.73	0–16	2.5	≤−3.00	3.7	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Miami	37%	upset
1	2	Georgetown University	George Washington University	94%
1	3	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	72%
1	4	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	41%	upset
1	5	Dartmouth College	University of Miami	84%
1	6	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	87%
1	7	College of Charleston	Tulane University	56%
1	8	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	79%
1	9	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	89%
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Miami	79%
1	11	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	74%
1	12	Tulane University	George Washington University	84%
1	13	College of Charleston	University of Miami	65%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	85%
1	15	Old Dominion University	Dartmouth College	20%	upset
1	16	College of Charleston	George Washington University	81%
1	17	Georgetown University	Tulane University	70%
1	18	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
1	19	University of Miami	Old Dominion University	41%	upset
1	20	Tulane University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	71%
1	21	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	94%
1	22	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	33%	upset
1	23	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	75%
1	24	University of Miami	Tulane University	37%	upset
1	25	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	68%
1	26	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	58%
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	92%
1	28	Tulane University	Old Dominion University	54%
1	29	University of Miami	Georgetown University	16%	upset
1	30	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	65%
1	31	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	35%	upset
1	32	University of Miami	George Washington University	85%
1	33	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
1	34	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	78%
1	35	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	67%
1	36	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	42%	upset
2	37	University of Miami	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	60%
2	38	Tulane University	George Washington University	84%
2	39	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	74%
2	40	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	42%	upset
2	41	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	89%
2	42	University of Miami	George Washington University	85%
2	43	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	74%
2	44	College of Charleston	Tulane University	56%
2	45	University of Miami	Dartmouth College	16%	upset
2	46	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	87%
2	47	College of Charleston	George Washington University	81%
2	48	Tulane University	Old Dominion University	54%
2	49	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	84%
2	50	Georgetown University	University of Miami	84%
2	51	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	65%
2	52	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	71%
2	53	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	80%
2	54	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	42%	upset
2	55	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	College of Charleston	32%	upset
2	56	University of Miami	Old Dominion University	41%	upset
2	57	Tulane University	Dartmouth College	22%	upset
2	58	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	92%
2	59	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	68%
2	60	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	65%
2	61	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Miami	79%
2	62	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	94%
2	63	Georgetown University	Tulane University	71%
2	64	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	41%	upset
2	65	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	67%
2	66	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
2	67	College of Charleston	University of Miami	65%
2	68	Tulane University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	70%
2	69	Georgetown University	George Washington University	94%
2	70	Old Dominion University	Dartmouth College	21%	upset
2	71	University of Miami	Tulane University	37%	upset
2	72	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
3	73	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	44%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Cougars	Green	Hurricanes	Wave	Monarchs	Statesmen	Revolutionaries
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–2	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–3	W	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–2	W	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–2	L	W	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	4–4	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–5	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Cougars	Green	Hurricanes	Wave	Monarchs	Statesmen	Revolutionaries
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–2	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	8–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–4	W	L	✕	L	W	W	L	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–5	L	L	W	✕	L	L	L	W	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	5–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	4–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–4	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

	Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas
	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–0	✕	W
	Georgetown University Hoyas	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
3	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
4	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
5	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
6	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
7	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
8	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
9	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
10	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
11	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
12	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
13	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
14	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
15	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
17	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
18	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
19	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
20	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6 DSQ
21	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
22	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
23	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
24	Hurricanes	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
25	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
26	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
27	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
28	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
29	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
30	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
31	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
32	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
33	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
34	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
35	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
36	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
37	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
38	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
39	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
40	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
41	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
42	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
43	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
44	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
45	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
46	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
47	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
48	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
49	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
50	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
51	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
52	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
53	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6 DNF,DNF
54	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
55	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
56	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
57	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
58	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
60	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
61	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
62	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
63	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
64	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
65	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
66	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
67	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
68	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
69	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
70	Monarchs		def.	Big Green
71	Hurricanes		def.	Green Wave
72	Hoyas		def.	Midshipmen
73	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Madeline Smith '24 Tanner Kelly '25 Hunter Anderson '24 Ellie Alex '26 Ryan Wahba '25 Darby Graham '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Diego Escobar '25 Mariner Fagan '24 Mateo Di Blasi '25	Caro Gaston '25 Spencer Kriegstein '25 Emily Panarella '24 Vaughn Slatoff '26 Addi Harris '24 Xavier Stoldt '26
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alexander Gonzalez '24 Axel Stordahl '24 Benjamin Dufour '26 Brandon Geller '23 Noah Zittrer '26	Lucy Klempen '24 Andrea Melnik '27 Garrett Grenauer '24 Noelle Owen '24 Aidan Iaconis '26
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Maddie Hawkins '24 Robert Bragg '23 Ryan Satterberg '27	Lilly Baker '27 Elise Donovan '24 James Paul '23 Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Alexandra Pierce '25 Reese Bragg '25
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Atlee Kohl '25 Steven Hardee '26	Ana Stewart '27 Teddy Bueres '24 Natalie Elder '25 Danny Riano '27 Briana Hummel '27
Tulane University	Green Wave	Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27 Zander King '25	Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 Cj Ricci '25 Brady Starck '25 Gillian Perrell '24 Audrey Permenter '27 Alex Makoid '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Diogo Silva '26 Noyl Odom '24 Parker Purrington '24	Ethan Tutt '24 Parker Younger '24 Ian Kissel '27 Asianna Acosta '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Jj Klempen '27 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 Will Murray '24	Anna Mcbride '24 Henry Breslin '27 Rachel Duggan '25 Elijah Goldman '26 Frances Depke '25
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Oscar Macgillivray '24 Tyler Wood '26	Annabelle O'Bryan '24 Ella Adelman '26 Sam Schuhwerk '27 Ian Milko '26 Andre Bochat '27

Conditions — 03/23/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 83% · Pressure 1004.8 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 59°F

Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.1 kn

avg · max 15.0 kn

Gusts to 33.0 kn

From W (271°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1004.8 hPa Rain0.63 in

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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