Darien High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.07 (fleet 1.67) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–7 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 7–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 7–7 against 3.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy) | skipper | 0.88 | 2.41 | 7–7 | 3.5 | +1.53 | 3.1 | 3% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.1 | -0.04 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| CT State Invitational - 2023 | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 0.61 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Connecticut State Championship 2022 | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 0.49 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Oliver West |  University of Miami |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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