Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/21/2026
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	10–3
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	9–4
3	Tulane University	Green Wave	9–4
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–5
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–5
6	Fordham University	Rams	6–7
7	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	4–9
8	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	4–9
9	University of Rhode Island	Rams	4–9
10	Eckerd College	Tritons	3–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 29,369 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 65 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.496 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.01 ± 0.28: a typical event, more orderly than 42% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	11.38 school +0.25	Peter Barnard / Teddy Stoldt 3.54 Enzo Menditto / Margot Gordon 3.81 Peter Herlihy / Scarlett Harris 3.78	69%	10–3 (77%)	+1.0
2	Stanford University Cardinal	4	11.16 school +0.36	Ellie Harned / Piper Blackband 3.54 Freddie Parkin / Amiya Stroumza 3.55 Dylan Sih / Kate Myles 3.68	64%	9–4 (69%)	+0.7
3	Tulane University Green Wave	5	11.09	Kelly Holthus / Jonah Wozniak 3.53 Christian Ebbin / Sabrina Anderson 3.66 Hamilton Barclay / Taylor Bartell 3.85	63%	9–4 (69%)	+0.8
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	11.37 school +0.20	Nathan Smith / Sarah Mcnelly 3.84 Henry Allgeier / Fiona Cullen 3.74 Jack Welburn / Darby Graham 3.67 6–2 Owen Macwilliams / Darby Graham 3.44 2–3	68%	8–5 (62%)	−0.9
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	1	11.47 school +0.41	Chase Decker / Phoebe Lee 3.88 Bella Casaretto / Lilly Baker 3.44 Ryan Satterberg / Madeline Koelbel 3.73	70%	8–5 (62%)	−1.2
6	Fordham University Rams	7	8.49 school −0.06	Patrick Shachoy / Caroline Newton 2.70 Lucas Thress / Ashley Abboud 2.72 Jacob Zils / Andalucia Pilcher 3.12	35%	6–7 (46%)	+1.5
7	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	9.04 school +0.29, home +0.35	Blake Goodwin / Cadence Goodnight 2.84 Diogo Silva / Lindsey Kaufmann 2.96 Pierce Brindley / Madison Bivins 2.59	46%	4–9 (31%)	−2.0
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	9	8.22	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Ilana Umanskiy 2.37 Tyler Wood / Caitlyn Schwartz 3.15 Jedidiah Bechtel / Kaya Alper-Nocera 2.48 2–6 Jedidiah Bechtel / Adrian Atwater 2.62 2–3	30%	4–9 (31%)	+0.1
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	8	8.32 school −0.09	Keith Grupenhoff / Ava Kiss 3.10 Max Sigel / John Mason 2.77 Olin Guck / Olivia Dutra 2.50	32%	4–9 (31%)	−0.1
10	Eckerd College Tritons	10	7.84 school +0.06	Pj Rodrigues / Avery Guck 3.01 Peter Miller / Peyton Seidle 1.83 Jordan Vieira / Tia Soultanakis 2.92	22%	3–10 (23%)	+0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Fordham University	8.49	9.16	6–7	4.5	+0.67	0.7	26%
1	Georgetown University	11.38	11.84	10–3	9.0	+0.46	0.3	38%
3	Tulane University	11.09	11.43	9–4	8.2	+0.34	0.2	43%
2	Stanford University	11.16	11.47	9–4	8.3	+0.30	0.1	45%
8	George Washington University	8.22	8.29	4–9	3.8	+0.07	0.0	59%
10	Eckerd College	7.84	7.91	3–10	2.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
9	University of Rhode Island	8.32	8.27	4–9	4.1	−0.05	0.0	66%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	11.37	10.98	8–5	8.9	−0.39	0.2	82%
5	Dartmouth College	11.47	10.96	8–5	9.2	−0.52	0.4	87%
7	Old Dominion University	9.04	8.12	4–9	6.0	−0.92	1.3	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Patrick Shachoy	Fordham University	2.70	3.37	6–7	4.5	+0.67	0.7	26%
Lucas Thress	Fordham University	2.72	3.39	6–7	4.5	+0.67	0.7	26%
Jacob Zils	Fordham University	3.12	3.79	6–7	4.5	+0.67	0.7	26%
Peter Barnard	Georgetown University	3.54	3.99	10–3	9.0	+0.46	0.3	38%
Enzo Menditto	Georgetown University	3.81	4.26	10–3	9.0	+0.46	0.3	38%
Peter Herlihy	Georgetown University	3.78	4.23	10–3	9.0	+0.46	0.3	38%
Kelly Holthus	Tulane University	3.53	3.88	9–4	8.2	+0.34	0.2	43%
Christian Ebbin	Tulane University	3.66	4.00	9–4	8.2	+0.34	0.2	43%
Hamilton Barclay	Tulane University	3.85	4.19	9–4	8.2	+0.34	0.2	43%
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.54	3.85	9–4	8.3	+0.30	0.1	45%
Freddie Parkin	Stanford University	3.55	3.85	9–4	8.3	+0.30	0.1	45%
Dylan Sih	Stanford University	3.68	3.98	9–4	8.3	+0.30	0.1	45%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia	George Washington University	2.37	2.44	4–9	3.8	+0.07	0.0	59%
Jedidiah Bechtel	George Washington University	2.48	2.55	4–9	3.8	+0.07	0.0	59%
Tyler Wood	George Washington University	3.15	3.22	4–9	3.8	+0.07	0.0	59%
Pj Rodrigues	Eckerd College	3.01	3.08	3–10	2.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
Peter Miller	Eckerd College	1.83	1.89	3–10	2.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
Jordan Vieira	Eckerd College	2.92	2.98	3–10	2.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
Jack Welburn	U. S. Naval Academy	3.67	3.72	6–2	5.9	+0.05	0.0	67%
Keith Grupenhoff	University of Rhode Island	3.10	3.05	4–9	4.1	−0.05	0.0	66%
Max Sigel	University of Rhode Island	2.77	2.72	4–9	4.1	−0.05	0.0	66%
Olin Guck	University of Rhode Island	2.50	2.45	4–9	4.1	−0.05	0.0	66%
Nathan Smith	U. S. Naval Academy	3.84	3.45	8–5	8.9	−0.39	0.2	82%
Henry Allgeier	U. S. Naval Academy	3.74	3.35	8–5	8.9	−0.39	0.2	82%
Chase Decker	Dartmouth College	3.88	3.37	8–5	9.2	−0.52	0.4	87%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	3.44	2.93	8–5	9.2	−0.52	0.4	87%
Ryan Satterberg	Dartmouth College	3.73	3.21	8–5	9.2	−0.52	0.4	87%
Owen Macwilliams	U. S. Naval Academy	3.44	2.53	2–3	2.9	−0.92	0.6	92%
Blake Goodwin	Old Dominion University	2.84	1.92	4–9	6.0	−0.92	1.3	96%
Diogo Silva	Old Dominion University	2.96	2.04	4–9	6.0	−0.92	1.3	96%
Pierce Brindley	Old Dominion University	2.59	1.67	4–9	6.0	−0.92	1.3	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	54%
1	2	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	70%
1	3	Fordham University	University of Rhode Island	55%
1	4	Stanford University	Eckerd College	97%
1	5	Tulane University	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
1	6	Georgetown University	George Washington University	96%
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	94%
1	8	Old Dominion University	Eckerd College	77%
1	9	Tulane University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	10	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	42%	upset
1	11	Fordham University	George Washington University	56%
1	12	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	97%
1	13	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	47%	upset
1	14	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	89%
1	15	Dartmouth College	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	16	Eckerd College	Fordham University	34%	upset
1	17	Tulane University	George Washington University	95%
1	18	Georgetown University	Stanford University	56%
1	19	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Naval Academy	4%	upset
1	20	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	92%
1	21	Tulane University	Eckerd College	96%
1	22	Stanford University	Fordham University	94%
1	23	University of Rhode Island	George Washington University	54%
1	24	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	91%
1	25	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	50%	upset
1	26	Stanford University	Tulane University	52%
1	27	University of Rhode Island	Eckerd College	62%
1	28	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	37%	upset
1	29	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	96%
1	30	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	52%
1	31	Stanford University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	32	Tulane University	Old Dominion University	89%
1	33	U. S. Naval Academy	Eckerd College	97%
1	34	Georgetown University	Fordham University	95%
1	35	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	96%
1	36	Old Dominion University	University of Rhode Island	67%
1	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	57%
1	38	Georgetown University	Tulane University	57%
1	39	Eckerd College	George Washington University	41%	upset
1	40	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	95%
1	41	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	92%
1	42	Georgetown University	University of Rhode Island	96%
1	43	Stanford University	George Washington University	95%
1	44	Tulane University	Fordham University	93%
1	45	Dartmouth College	Eckerd College	97%
5	46	Tulane University	Stanford University	48%	upset
5	47	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	46%	upset
5	48	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	57%
5	49	Georgetown University	Tulane University	57%
5	50	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	50%	upset
5	51	Stanford University	Georgetown University	45%	upset
5	52	Tulane University	U. S. Naval Academy	47%	upset
5	53	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	48%	upset
5	54	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
5	55	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	59%
5	56	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	32%	upset
5	57	Fordham University	University of Rhode Island	54%
5	58	Old Dominion University	Eckerd College	77%
5	59	George Washington University	Fordham University	45%	upset
5	60	Eckerd College	University of Rhode Island	38%	upset
5	61	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	36%	upset
5	62	George Washington University	University of Rhode Island	48%	upset
5	63	Fordham University	Eckerd College	65%
5	64	University of Rhode Island	Old Dominion University	33%	upset
5	65	George Washington University	Eckerd College	60%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cardinal	Wave	Midshipmen	Green	Rams	Monarchs	Revolutionaries	Rams	Tritons
Georgetown University Hoyas	8–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	7–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	7–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Eckerd College Tritons	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Cardinal	Wave	Midshipmen	Green	Rams	Monarchs	Revolutionaries	Rams	Tritons
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–2	✕	L	W	L	W	–	–	–	–	–
Stanford University Cardinal	2–2	W	✕	L	W	L	–	–	–	–	–
Tulane University Green Wave	2–2	L	W	✕	W	L	–	–	–	–	–
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–2	W	L	L	✕	W	–	–	–	–	–
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–2	L	W	W	L	✕	–	–	–	–	–
Fordham University Rams	3–1	–	–	–	–	–	✕	W	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–3	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕	L	L	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	4–0	–	–	–	–	–	W	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–3	–	–	–	–	–	L	W	L	✕	L
Eckerd College Tritons	1–3	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
2	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
3	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
4	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
5	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
7	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
8	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Tritons	2-4-6
9	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
11	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Revolutionaries	2-4-5
12	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
13	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
14	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
15	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
16	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
17	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
19	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
20	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
21	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
22	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
23	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
24	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
25	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
27	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
28	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
30	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
32	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
33	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
34	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
35	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
36	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
37	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
38	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
39	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
40	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
41	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
42	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
43	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
44	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
45	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
46	Green Wave	3-4-5	def.	Cardinal	1-2-6 DSQ
47	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
48	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
49	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
50	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
51	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
52	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
53	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
54	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
55	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
56	Revolutionaries	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
57	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
58	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
59	Revolutionaries	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
60	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
61	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
62	Revolutionaries	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
63	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
64	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
65	Revolutionaries	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Enzo Menditto '26 Peter Barnard '27 Peter Herlihy '29	Margot Gordon '26 Teddy Stoldt '28 Scarlett Harris '28
Stanford University	Cardinal	Dylan Sih '28 Ellie Harned '26 Freddie Parkin '29	Kate Myles '29 Piper Blackband '28 Amiya Stroumza '28
Tulane University	Green Wave	Christian Ebbin '28 Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27	Sabrina Anderson '28 Taylor Bartell '28 Jonah Wozniak '29
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26 Owen Macwilliams '28	Fiona Cullen '27 Darby Graham '26 Sarah Mcnelly '28
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Chase Decker '28 Ryan Satterberg '27	Lilly Baker '27 Phoebe Lee '26 Madeline Koelbel '26
Fordham University	Rams	Jacob Zils '27 Lucas Thress '26 Patrick Shachoy '28	Andalucia Pilcher '28 Ashley Abboud '26 Caroline Newton '27
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Blake Goodwin '27 Diogo Silva '26 Pierce Brindley '28	Cadence Goodnight '26 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 Madison Bivins '29
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Tyler Wood '26	Ilana Umanskiy '29 Adrian Atwater '28 Kaya Alper-Nocera '27 Caitlyn Schwartz '28
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Keith Grupenhoff '29 Max Sigel '26 Olin Guck '26	Ava Kiss '29 John Mason '28 Olivia Dutra '28
Eckerd College	Tritons	Jordan Vieira '28 Peter Miller '29 Pj Rodrigues '28	Tia Soultanakis '26 Peyton Seidle '29 Avery Guck '28

Conditions — 03/21/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1011.8 hPa

Temperature

65°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.5 kn

avg · max 7.2 kn

Gusts to 16.9 kn

From N (360°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1011.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu