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John Jackson Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 16–1
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 11–6
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 10–7
4 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 9–8
5 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 6–8
5 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 6–8
7 George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 3–11
8 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,440 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 50 of 62 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.453 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 61% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Georgetown University
Hoyas		110.84
school +0.27, home +0.37		Mateo Di Blasi / Caro Gaston 3.48
Diego Escobar / Margot Gordon 3.45
Jeffrey Petersen / Spencer Kriegstein 3.20 15–0
Enzo Menditto / Spencer Kriegstein 3.48 1–1		88%16–1 (94%)+1.1
2University of Pennsylvania
Quakers		48.79
school +0.18		Cole Woodworth / Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse 2.93
Jackson Mcaliley / Ian Lent 2.87
Drew D’Orsi / Kiki Bruzzi 2.66		48%11–6 (65%)+2.8
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges
Statesmen		39.36
school +0.23		Jj Klempen / Rachel Duggan 3.19
James Kopack / Frances Depke 2.63
Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Stella Kim 3.29 8–7
Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Henry Breslin 3.18 2–0		62%10–7 (59%)−0.5
4University of Rhode Island
Rams		29.53
school −0.09		Tyler Nash / Ursula Budd 2.93
Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 3.96 6–6
Owen Grainger / Eric Pohl 2.74 6–6
Kerem Erkmen / Parker Brown 3.83 3–2
Christopher Chwalk / Abbie Chipps 2.71 1–2
Christopher Chwalk / Eric Pohl 2.81 2–0		64%9–8 (53%)−1.9
5Fordham University
Rams		68.13
school +0.12		Lucas Thress / Caroline Newton 2.60
Jacob Zils / Andalucia Pilcher 2.85 5–7
Patrick Shachoy / Rebecca Keller 2.40 5–5
Patrick Dolan / Rebecca Keller 2.87 1–3
Jacob Zils / Brendan Sheeran 2.75 1–1		36%6–8 (43%)+0.9
5Yale University
Bulldogs		58.46
school +0.27		Audrey Foley / Ariana Borut 2.49 4–6
Dorothy Mendelblatt / Julia Miller 2.99 2–6
Alex Adams / Mary Madaus 2.69 3–5
Mathias Reimer / Puiyee Kong 2.42 1–3
Dorothy Mendelblatt / Ariana Borut 2.95 2–2
Mathias Reimer / Julia Miller 2.58 2–2
Dorothy Mendelblatt / Mary Madaus 2.98 2–0
Alex Adams / Julia Miller 2.74 2–0		45%6–8 (43%)−0.3
7George Washington University
Revolutionaries		77.96
school +0.16		Tyler Wood / Adrian Atwater 2.81
Jedidiah Bechtel / Ella Adelman 2.71
Tryg Van Wyk / Andre Bochat 2.16		33%3–11 (21%)−1.6
8University of Vermont
Catamounts		86.55
school −0.28		Calvin Lamosse / Will Broseman 2.47
Ethan Burt / Jack Taylor 2.32 1–9
Christian Cushman / Alice Thompson 2.28 1–7
Gavin Sanborn / Ryan Thompson 2.04 0–4
Marco Welch / Jack Taylor 1.88 0–4
Marco Welch / Ryan Thompson 1.85 0–2		11%1–13 (7%)−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of Pennsylvania8.799.6911–68.2+0.891.810%
1Georgetown University10.8411.6716–114.9+0.820.636%
5Fordham University8.138.496–85.1+0.360.238%
5Yale University8.468.326–86.3−0.140.070%
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges9.369.2110–710.5−0.160.172%
8University of Vermont6.556.091–131.5−0.450.180%
4University of Rhode Island9.538.909–810.9−0.620.992%
7George Washington University7.967.223–114.6−0.740.892%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Drew D’OrsiUniversity of Pennsylvania2.663.5611–68.2+0.891.810%
Lucas ThressFordham University2.602.966–85.1+0.360.238%
Audrey FoleyYale University2.492.664–63.7+0.170.055%
Mathias ReimerYale University2.422.153–53.3−0.270.177%
Alex AdamsYale University2.692.345–55.7−0.350.280%
Kerem ErkmenUniversity of Rhode Island3.963.349–810.9−0.620.992%
Jedidiah BechtelGeorge Washington University2.711.963–114.6−0.740.892%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of PennsylvaniaHobart and William Smith Colleges33%upset
12University of Rhode IslandGeorge Washington University85%
13University of VermontGeorgetown University1%upset
14Yale UniversityFordham University62%
15Hobart and William Smith CollegesGeorge Washington University81%
16Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania89%
17University of Rhode IslandYale University75%
18Fordham UniversityUniversity of Vermont77%
19Georgetown UniversityGeorge Washington University95%
110Yale UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges24%upset
111University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Vermont90%
112Fordham UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island17%upset
113Georgetown UniversityYale University93%
114George Washington UniversityUniversity of Vermont80%
115Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Rhode Island45%upset
116University of PennsylvaniaFordham University68%
117Yale UniversityUniversity of Vermont90%
118Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island78%
119University of PennsylvaniaGeorge Washington University69%
120Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University80%
121University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont96%
122University of PennsylvaniaYale University57%
123Georgetown UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges81%
124Fordham UniversityGeorge Washington University60%
125University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Pennsylvania65%
126Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Vermont95%
127Yale UniversityGeorge Washington University64%
128Georgetown UniversityFordham University91%
229University of PennsylvaniaHobart and William Smith Colleges36%upset
230University of Rhode IslandGeorge Washington University83%
231Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Vermont99%
232Fordham UniversityYale University37%upset
233Hobart and William Smith CollegesGeorge Washington University80%
234Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania88%
235University of Rhode IslandYale University73%
236Fordham UniversityUniversity of Vermont77%
237Georgetown UniversityGeorge Washington University94%
238Hobart and William Smith CollegesYale University74%
239University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Vermont90%
240University of Rhode IslandFordham University82%
241Georgetown UniversityYale University92%
242George Washington UniversityUniversity of Vermont81%
243University of Rhode IslandHobart and William Smith Colleges55%
244Fordham UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania31%upset
245Yale UniversityUniversity of Vermont90%
246Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island78%
247University of PennsylvaniaGeorge Washington University69%
248Hobart and William Smith CollegesFordham University79%
249University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Vermont96%
250University of PennsylvaniaYale University57%
251Georgetown UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges81%
252George Washington UniversityFordham University41%upset
253University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Rhode Island37%upset
254Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Vermont95%
255Yale UniversityGeorge Washington University64%
256Georgetown UniversityFordham University91%
457University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Rhode Island37%upset
458Georgetown UniversityHobart and William Smith Colleges81%
459Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Pennsylvania63%
460Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Rhode Island78%
461Hobart and William Smith CollegesUniversity of Rhode Island46%upset
462Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania88%

Round 1

TeamRec.HoyasQuakersStatesmenRamsRamsBulldogsRevolutionariesCatamounts
Georgetown University Hoyas6–1✕WWWWWWL
University of Pennsylvania Quakers5–2L✕WLWWWW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen4–3LL✕WWLWW
University of Rhode Island Rams4–3LWL✕LWWW
Fordham University Rams3–4LLLW✕LWW
Yale University Bulldogs4–3LLWLW✕WW
George Washington University Revolutionaries1–6LLLLLL✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts1–6WLLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.HoyasQuakersStatesmenRamsRamsBulldogsRevolutionariesCatamounts
Georgetown University Hoyas7–0✕WWWWWWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers5–2L✕WWLWWW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen4–3LL✕LWWWW
University of Rhode Island Rams5–2LLW✕WWWW
Fordham University Rams3–4LWLL✕WLW
Yale University Bulldogs2–5LLLLL✕WW
George Washington University Revolutionaries2–5LLLLWL✕W
University of Vermont Catamounts0–7LLLLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.HoyasQuakersStatesmenRams
Georgetown University Hoyas3–0✕WWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers1–2L✕LW
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen2–1LW✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-6 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-5
2 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-3 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 4-5-6
3 University of Vermont Catamounts 2-3-5 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 1-4-6
4 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 4-5-6
5 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 4-5-6
6 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
7 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
8 Fordham University Rams 1-3-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-4-6
9 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 4-5-6
10 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-5-6
11 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
12 Fordham University Rams 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
13 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
14 George Washington University Revolutionaries 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
15 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
16 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-4-5 def. Fordham University Rams 2-3-6
17 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
18 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-5-6
19 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-3-5 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 2-4-6 DNF
20 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-4 def. Fordham University Rams 1-5-6
21 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
22 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-5-6
23 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3-4-6
24 Fordham University Rams 2-3-5 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 1-4-6
25 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
26 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 2-5-6
27 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 4-5-6
28 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
29 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-5-6
30 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-4 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 3-5-6
31 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-5-6
32 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. Yale University Bulldogs 4-5-6
33 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-4 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 1-5-6
34 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
35 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
36 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-6
37 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-3-4 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 2-5-6
38 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-5
39 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
40 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-4 def. Fordham University Rams 2-5-6
41 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
42 George Washington University Revolutionaries 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
43 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-3-5 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-4-6
44 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
45 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 1-5-6
46 Georgetown University Hoyas 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
47 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-3 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 4-5-6
48 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
49 University of Rhode Island Rams 1-2-6 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 3-4-5
50 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
51 Georgetown University Hoyas 2-3-4 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-5-6
52 George Washington University Revolutionaries 1-2-5 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-6
53 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
54 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-2-3 def. University of Vermont Catamounts 4-5-6
55 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. George Washington University Revolutionaries 4-5-6
56 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-4 def. Fordham University Rams 3-5-6
57 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
58 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4-5-6
59 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2-3-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-4-6
60 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-5-6
61 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
62 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-3-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2-4-6

Conditions — 03/08/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1009.3 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.1 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 28.2 kn
From NW (313°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1009.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →