Penn State University '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.44 (fleet 2.01) | 288 of 331 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–22 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 8–22 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 8–22 against 9.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Seahawk Team Race | skipper | 1.81 | 1.62 | 3–12 | 3.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2026-02-28 | NA Open Team Race at SMC | skipper | 1.67 | 1.37 | 5–10 | 5.6 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 2.29 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.4 | 1.04 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.0 | 2.24 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 2.11 |
| Battle of Lake Erie | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 1.50 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Seahawk Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| NA Open Team Race at SMC | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| ICSA Regional Teams National Invitational | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 1.64 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 13.9 | — |
| 2026 Azalea Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.6 | 1.36 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 2 | 10.5 | 2.46 |
| Cazenovia Fall Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.2 | 1.50 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Claire Sullivan |  Great Mills High School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
