Cazenovia Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 7 11 18
2 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 12 19 31
3 Penn State Behrend Penn State Behrend Sea Lions 13 19 32
4 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 22 16 38
5 Raiders Raiders Raiders 25 17 42
6 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 30 28 58
7 Indiana University of Pennsylvania Indiana University of Pennsylvania Hawks 41 38 79
8 University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 38 41 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 1 1 2 1 2 7 Joseph Murphy '28 [1-5]
Isabell Thill '29 [1-2, 5]
Collin Dubravetz '28 [3-4]
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 3 2 1 2 4 12 James Fair '26
Charlie Barbara '29
Penn State Behrend Penn State Behrend Sea Lions 2 4 3 3 1 13 Anthony Farrar '26 [1-5]
Danielle Ruble '28 [1-2]
Aidan Kelly '28 [3-5]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 4 5 5 5 3 22 Ashley Franklin '27 [1-2]
Nehuel Armenanzas '30 [3-5]
Owen Delwiche '30 [1-2]
Matthew Lefler '29 [3-4]
Emmett Dix '29 [5]
Raiders Raiders Raiders 6 6 4 4 5 25
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 5 3 DNF 6 7 30 Adrian Drakes '28
Elizabeth Hample '29
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 8 8 DNS 7 6 38 Zhangyun Tan '29 [1-2, 4-5]
Carlos Lopez '27 [3]
Judy Liu '27 [1-2, 4-5]
Sam Klein '28 [3]
Indiana University of Pennsylvania Indiana University of Pennsylvania Hawks 7 7 DNS DNS DNS 41 Serena Aumick '26
Aurora Beaucheane '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 4 1 1 3 2 11 Claire Sullivan '29 [1-5]
Katie Loeper '29 [1-2, 5]
Mac Fitzgerald '28 [3-4]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 2 2 4 4 4 16 Josh Elliott '29 [1-5]
Emmitt Harper '30 [1-2]
Tony Sessa '30 [3-5]
Raiders Raiders Raiders 1 6 5 2 3 17
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 3 7 3 1 5 19 Alex Graham '29
William Cole Bonnell '28
Penn State Behrend Penn State Behrend Sea Lions 7 4 2 5 1 19 Velia Minerbi '28 [1-2]
Bryce Nill '26 [3-5]
Aidan Kelly '28 [1-2]
Velia Minerbi '28 [3-5]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 5 5 6 6 6 28 Graham Marhall '29 [1-3]
Alice Kilkelly '26 [4-5]
Katie Metis '26 [1-3]
Antonio Aaron '26 [4-5]
Indiana University of Pennsylvania Indiana University of Pennsylvania Hawks 8 3 DNS DNS DNS 38 Isabel Allerheiligen '26 [1-5]
Lauren Connor '27 [1-2, 5]
David Nagele Iv '26 [3-4]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Yellowjackets 6 8 DNS DNS DNS 41 Anna Hermans '29
Natthavee Kunathai '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
RaidersRaiders Raiders11335
Indiana University of PennsylvaniaIndiana University of Pennsylvania Hawks33557
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions55771
Penn State BehrendPenn State Behrend Sea Lions44668
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels77113
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers88224
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets22446
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange66882

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
RaidersRaiders Raiders22446
Indiana University of PennsylvaniaIndiana University of Pennsylvania Hawks44668
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions66882
Penn State BehrendPenn State Behrend Sea Lions55771
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels88224
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers11335
University of RochesterUniversity of Rochester Yellowjackets33557
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange77113
School / Team SkipperCrew
Indiana University of Pennsylvania Indiana University of Pennsylvania Serena Aumick '26 Aurora Beaucheane '26
Hawks Isabel Allerheiligen '26 [1-5] Lauren Connor '27 [1-2, 5]
David Nagele Iv '26 [3-4]
Penn State Behrend Penn State Behrend Anthony Farrar '26 [1-5] Danielle Ruble '28 [1-2]
Aidan Kelly '28 [3-5]
Sea Lions Velia Minerbi '28 [1-2]
Bryce Nill '26 [3-5]
Aidan Kelly '28 [1-2]
Velia Minerbi '28 [3-5]
Penn State University Penn State University Joseph Murphy '28 [1-5] Isabell Thill '29 [1-2, 5]
Collin Dubravetz '28 [3-4]
Nittany Lions Claire Sullivan '29 [1-5] Katie Loeper '29 [1-2, 5]
Mac Fitzgerald '28 [3-4]
Queen's University Queen's University James Fair '26 Charlie Barbara '29
Gaels Alex Graham '29 William Cole Bonnell '28
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Ashley Franklin '27 [1-2]
Nehuel Armenanzas '30 [3-5]
Owen Delwiche '30 [1-2]
Matthew Lefler '29 [3-4]
Emmett Dix '29 [5]
Tigers Josh Elliott '29 [1-5] Emmitt Harper '30 [1-2]
Tony Sessa '30 [3-5]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Adrian Drakes '28 Elizabeth Hample '29
Orange Graham Marhall '29 [1-3]
Alice Kilkelly '26 [4-5]
Katie Metis '26 [1-3]
Antonio Aaron '26 [4-5]
University of Rochester University of Rochester Zhangyun Tan '29 [1-2, 4-5]
Carlos Lopez '27 [3]
Judy Liu '27 [1-2, 4-5]
Sam Klein '28 [3]
Yellowjackets Anna Hermans '29 Natthavee Kunathai '28

Conditions — 09/20/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1025.5 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 12.6 kn
From NE (41°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1025.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn · S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Syracuse: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Syracuse by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Syracuse, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →