Pirate Team Racing

HostHampton
Date03/29/2025
TypeRegional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	14–1
2	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	12–3
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	7–8
4	Hampton University	Pirates	6–9
5	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	5–7
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	3–9
7	The Citadel	Bulldogs	1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,645 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 48 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.374 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2	8.29 school +0.22	Umi Noritake / Molly Jethwa 2.69 Sean Trudell / Melania Gonzalez 2.72 Teddy Martin / Margo Cicero 2.69 9–0 Robert Ziman / Margo Cicero 2.48 5–1	82%	14–1 (93%)	+1.7
2	Old Dominion University Monarchs	1	8.50 school +0.33	Diogo Silva / Molly Hanson 2.86 Blake Goodwin / Emil Body-Goldberg 2.67 11–1 Pierce Brindley / Lindsey Kaufmann 2.68 8–2 Pierce Brindley / Olivia Gilmore 2.55 4–1 Blake Goodwin / Ian Kissel 2.59 1–2	86%	12–3 (80%)	−0.8
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	6.90 school +0.43	Max Kleha / Hattie Rigney 2.20 Mats Braaten / Elise Jones 2.17 Scott Opert / Emery Strockbine	57%	7–8 (47%)	−1.6
4	Hampton University Pirates	5	5.72 school +0.15	Stefano Palamara / Jackson Manley 1.95 Tyler Brown / Chloe Anderson 2.40 Tommaso Ciaglia / Kiara-Lee Wright 1.08	35%	6–9 (40%)	+0.8
5	Penn State University Nittany Lions	4	5.61 school −0.18	Barrett Lhamon / Mac Fitzgerald 2.09 Justin Marquez / Ryan Galella 1.66 Joseph Murphy / Makenna Labor	38%	5–7 (42%)	+0.4
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	6	4.82 school −0.37	Oscar Gilroy / Caleb Scheaffer 1.00 Reed Mcallister / Isaac Lee 2.36 Calvin Marsh / Rey Jacob Alino 1.77	23%	3–9 (25%)	+0.2
7	The Citadel Bulldogs	7	4.29 school −0.17	Kenneth Buck / Chloe Whitesell 1.62 Andrew Tollefson / Camden Hom 1.74 Henry Parker / Alana Hantz 1.06	15%	1–11 (8%)	−0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	U. S. Naval Academy	8.29	9.74	14–1	12.3	+1.44	1.6	16%
4	Hampton University	5.72	6.10	6–9	5.2	+0.38	0.2	41%
5	Penn State University	5.61	5.84	5–7	4.6	+0.23	0.1	52%
6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	4.82	4.94	3–9	2.8	+0.12	0.0	58%
2	Old Dominion University	8.50	8.00	12–3	12.8	−0.50	0.3	86%
7	The Citadel	4.29	3.58	1–11	1.8	−0.71	0.4	87%
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	6.90	6.18	7–8	8.6	−0.72	0.8	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Stefano Palamara	Hampton University	1.95	2.32	6–9	5.2	+0.38	0.2	41%
Umi Noritake	U. S. Naval Academy	2.69	3.07	6–9	5.2	+0.38	0.2	41%
Tommaso Ciaglia	Hampton University	1.08	1.46	6–9	5.2	+0.38	0.2	41%
Barrett Lhamon	Penn State University	2.09	2.33	5–7	4.6	+0.23	0.1	52%
Diogo Silva	Old Dominion University	2.86	2.35	12–3	12.8	−0.50	0.3	86%
Kenneth Buck	The Citadel	1.62	0.91	1–11	1.8	−0.71	0.4	87%
Andrew Tollefson	The Citadel	1.74	1.03	1–11	1.8	−0.71	0.4	87%
Henry Parker	The Citadel	1.06	0.35	1–11	1.8	−0.71	0.4	87%
Max Kleha	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.20	1.48	7–8	8.6	−0.72	0.8	93%
Mats Braaten	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.17	1.45	7–8	8.6	−0.72	0.8	93%
Sean Trudell	U. S. Naval Academy	2.72	2.00	7–8	8.6	−0.72	0.8	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
1	2	Penn State University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	69%
1	3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	The Citadel	92%
1	4	U. S. Naval Academy	Hampton University	93%
1	5	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
1	6	Penn State University	The Citadel	79%
1	7	Hampton University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	24%	upset
1	8	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
1	9	Old Dominion University	The Citadel	98%
1	10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Penn State University	77%
1	11	Hampton University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	70%
1	12	U. S. Naval Academy	The Citadel	98%
1	13	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	83%
1	14	Penn State University	Hampton University	48%	upset
1	15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	The Citadel	63%
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
1	17	Old Dominion University	Penn State University	95%
1	18	Hampton University	The Citadel	80%
1	19	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11%	upset
1	20	U. S. Naval Academy	Penn State University	94%
1	21	Old Dominion University	Hampton University	95%
2	22	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Penn State University	78%
2	23	U. S. Naval Academy	The Citadel	98%
2	24	Old Dominion University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	98%
2	25	Hampton University	Penn State University	52%
2	26	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
2	27	Old Dominion University	The Citadel	98%
2	28	Hampton University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	71%
2	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Penn State University	94%
2	30	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	82%
2	31	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	The Citadel	63%
2	32	U. S. Naval Academy	Hampton University	92%
2	33	Old Dominion University	Penn State University	95%
2	34	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	89%
2	35	The Citadel	Hampton University	19%	upset
2	36	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	42%	upset
2	37	Penn State University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	69%
2	38	St. Mary's College of Maryland	The Citadel	93%
2	39	Old Dominion University	Hampton University	94%
2	40	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
2	41	Penn State University	The Citadel	79%
2	42	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hampton University	76%
4	43	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
4	44	Old Dominion University	Hampton University	94%
4	45	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	19%	upset
4	46	U. S. Naval Academy	Hampton University	92%
4	47	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	43%	upset
4	48	Hampton University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	24%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Seahawks	Pirates	Lions	Mariners	Bulldogs
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W
Hampton University Pirates	3–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Penn State University Nittany Lions	3–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
The Citadel Bulldogs	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Seahawks	Pirates	Lions	Mariners	Bulldogs
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Hampton University Pirates	2–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
Penn State University Nittany Lions	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
The Citadel Bulldogs	1–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Seahawks	Pirates
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–2	L	✕	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–2	L	W	✕	L
Hampton University Pirates	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
2	Nittany Lions	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
3	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
4	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6
5	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
6	Nittany Lions	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
7	Pirates	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
8	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
9	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
10	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Nittany Lions	2-3-6
11	Pirates	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
12	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
13	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
14	Nittany Lions	1-2-6	def.	Pirates	3-4-5
15	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
16	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
17	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
18	Pirates	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
19	Mariners	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
20	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
21	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
22	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Nittany Lions	1-5-6
23	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
24	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
25	Pirates	1-2-6	def.	Nittany Lions	3-4-5
26	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
27	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
28	Pirates	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Nittany Lions	4-5-6
30	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
31	Mariners	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
32	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
33	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Nittany Lions	2-3-6
34	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Pirates	2-3-6
36	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
37	Nittany Lions	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
38	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
39	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
40	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
41	Nittany Lions	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
42	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Pirates	3-5-6
43	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
45	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
46	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Pirates	1-5-6
47	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
48	Pirates	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Robert Ziman '25 Sean Trudell '28 Teddy Martin '27 Umi Noritake '28	Margo Cicero '26 Melania Gonzalez '28 Molly Jethwa '28
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Blake Goodwin '27 Diogo Silva '26 Pierce Brindley '28	Ian Kissel '27 Emil Body-Goldberg '27 Molly Hanson '27 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 Olivia Gilmore '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Mats Braaten '27 Max Kleha '25 Scott Opert '28	Elise Jones '28 Hattie Rigney '26 Emery Strockbine '28
Hampton University	Pirates	Stefano Palamara '25 Tommaso Ciaglia '25 Tyler Brown '26	Jackson Manley '27 Kiara-Lee Wright '27 Chloe Anderson '29
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	Barrett Lhamon '26 Joseph Murphy '28 Justin Marquez '28	Mac Fitzgerald '28 Makenna Labor '25 Ryan Galella '27
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Calvin Marsh '28 Oscar Gilroy '27 Reed Mcallister '27	Rey Jacob Alino '25 Caleb Scheaffer '27 Isaac Lee '28
The Citadel	Bulldogs	Andrew Tollefson '26 Henry Parker '26 Kenneth Buck '26	Camden Hom '26 Alana Hantz '27 Chloe Whitesell '28

Conditions — 03/29/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1021.7 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.2 kn

avg · max 14.8 kn

Gusts to 32.3 kn

From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1021.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Hampton — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Hampton in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hampton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (26 labelled fleet-race days at Hampton).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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