The 41st Cardinal Red Lynne Marchiando Trophy

HostMIT
Date03/30/2024
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Harvard University	Crimson	15–3
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	13–5
3	Brown University	Bears	11–7
4	Stanford University	Cardinal	9–9
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	7–11
6	Tulane University	Green Wave	4–14
7	University of Miami	Hurricanes	4–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,468 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 63 matches (65%) with a log-loss of 0.594 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.39 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 14% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Harvard University Crimson	1	12.34 school +0.24	Lachlain Mcgranahan / Marbella Marlo 4.13 Mitchell Callahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.92 Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.09 9–3 Justin Callahan / Aidan Pesce 3.96 6–0	85%	15–3 (83%)	−0.3
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	10.43 school +0.23	Robert Bragg / Alexandra Pierce 3.55 10–5 Maddie Hawkins / James Paul 3.44 6–3 Ryan Satterberg / Elise Donovan 3.18 6–3 Maddie Hawkins / Elise Donovan 3.54 7–2 James Paul / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.07 7–2 Robert Bragg / Lilly Baker 3.60 3–0	46%	13–5 (72%)	+4.7
3	Brown University Bears	3	11.33 school +0.21	Liam O'Keefe / Cam Spriggs 3.72 Guthrie Braun / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.57 10–5 Connor Nelson / Savannah Young 3.83 10–5 Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.67 1–2 Connor Nelson / Vera Allen 3.69 1–2	66%	11–7 (61%)	−0.8
4	Stanford University Cardinal	2	11.71 school +0.39	Thomas Sitzmann / Alice Schmid 3.82 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.81 7–5 Reade Decker / Alexis Young 3.71 7–5 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Lucas Woodworth 3.77 2–4 Reade Decker / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.66 2–4	73%	9–9 (50%)	−4.2
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5	10.19 school +0.10, home +0.41	Robert Ulmer / Nicholas Abate 3.05 Julius Heitkoetter / Matthew Elliott 2.98 Sam Bruce / Max Katz-Christy 3.62 4–11 Sam Bruce / Jemma Schroder 3.55 3–0	41%	7–11 (39%)	−0.3
6	Tulane University Green Wave	7	8.97 school +0.08	Matheo Graham-Capasso / Cj Ricci 2.78 Zander King / Gillian Perrell 2.96 Kelly Holthus / Brady Starck 3.13	17%	4–14 (22%)	+1.0
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	6	9.29 school +0.26	Atlee Kohl / Natalie Elder 3.29 Aidan Dennis / Ana Stewart 2.99 4–11 Steven Hardee / Teddy Bueres 2.76 4–8 Steven Hardee / Briana Hummel 2.69 0–6 Aidan Dennis / Teddy Bueres 3.05 0–3	23%	4–14 (22%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Dartmouth College	10.43	11.93	13–5	8.3	+1.51	5.1	1%
6	Tulane University	8.97	9.37	4–14	3.0	+0.40	0.3	36%
7	University of Miami	9.29	9.26	4–14	4.1	−0.03	0.0	63%
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.19	10.09	7–11	7.3	−0.10	0.0	67%
1	Harvard University	12.34	12.21	15–3	15.3	−0.13	0.0	72%
3	Brown University	11.33	11.06	11–7	11.8	−0.27	0.2	79%
4	Stanford University	11.71	10.38	9–9	13.2	−1.33	4.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
James Paul	Dartmouth College	3.07	4.93	7–2	4.0	+1.86	4.0	2%
Matheo Graham-Capasso	Tulane University	2.78	3.17	4–14	3.0	+0.40	0.3	36%
Atlee Kohl	University of Miami	3.29	3.26	4–14	4.1	−0.03	0.0	63%
Aidan Dennis	University of Miami	2.99	2.96	4–14	4.1	−0.03	0.0	63%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	University of Miami	95%
1	2	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
1	3	Brown University	Stanford University	42%	upset
1	4	Harvard University	Tulane University	96%
1	5	Dartmouth College	University of Miami	75%
1	6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	24%	upset
1	7	Stanford University	Tulane University	94%
1	8	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	88%
1	9	Brown University	University of Miami	88%
1	10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	16%	upset
1	11	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	82%
1	12	Harvard University	Brown University	75%
1	13	Stanford University	University of Miami	92%
1	14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	77%
1	15	Dartmouth College	Brown University	28%	upset
1	16	Harvard University	Stanford University	66%
1	17	University of Miami	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	29%	upset
1	18	Brown University	Tulane University	91%
1	19	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	22%	upset
1	20	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
1	21	Tulane University	University of Miami	42%	upset
2	22	Harvard University	University of Miami	95%
2	23	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
2	24	Brown University	Stanford University	42%	upset
2	25	Harvard University	Tulane University	96%
2	26	University of Miami	Dartmouth College	25%	upset
2	27	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
2	28	Stanford University	Tulane University	94%
2	29	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	88%
2	30	Brown University	University of Miami	88%
2	31	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	16%	upset
2	32	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	81%
2	33	Brown University	Harvard University	25%	upset
2	34	Stanford University	University of Miami	92%
2	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	77%
2	36	Dartmouth College	Brown University	28%	upset
2	37	Stanford University	Harvard University	35%	upset
2	38	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Miami	71%
2	39	Brown University	Tulane University	91%
2	40	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	78%
2	41	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
2	42	Tulane University	University of Miami	42%	upset
3	43	Harvard University	University of Miami	95%
3	44	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	56%
3	45	Brown University	Stanford University	42%	upset
3	46	Harvard University	Tulane University	96%
3	47	Dartmouth College	University of Miami	76%
3	48	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
3	49	Stanford University	Tulane University	94%
3	50	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	13%	upset
3	51	University of Miami	Brown University	12%	upset
3	52	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Stanford University	16%	upset
3	53	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	81%
3	54	Harvard University	Brown University	75%
3	55	Stanford University	University of Miami	92%
3	56	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	23%	upset
3	57	Dartmouth College	Brown University	28%	upset
3	58	Harvard University	Stanford University	65%
3	59	University of Miami	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	29%	upset
3	60	Brown University	Tulane University	91%
3	61	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	78%
3	62	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
3	63	Tulane University	University of Miami	42%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Green	Bears	Cardinal	Engineers	Wave	Hurricanes
Harvard University Crimson	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	3–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	2–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L
Tulane University Green Wave	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	1–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Green	Bears	Cardinal	Engineers	Wave	Hurricanes
Harvard University Crimson	4–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–3	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L
Brown University Bears	5–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–2	W	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	1–5	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Crimson	Green	Bears	Cardinal	Engineers	Wave	Hurricanes
Harvard University Crimson	5–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	3–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L
Stanford University Cardinal	3–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–5	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L
Tulane University Green Wave	2–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Miami Hurricanes	2–4	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
2	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
3	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
4	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
5	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
6	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
7	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
8	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
10	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Cardinal	1-4-6
11	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
12	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
13	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
14	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
15	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
16	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
17	Hurricanes	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
18	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
19	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6 DNF
20	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
21	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
22	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6 DNF
23	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
24	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
25	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
26	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
28	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
29	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
30	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-3-6
31	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
32	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
33	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
34	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6
35	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
36	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
37	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
38	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
40	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
41	Crimson	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
42	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
43	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
44	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
45	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
46	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
47	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
48	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
49	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
50	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
51	Hurricanes	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
52	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
53	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
54	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
56	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
57	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
58	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
59	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
61	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
62	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
63	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Hurricanes	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Harvard University	Crimson	Justin Callahan '26 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24 Mitchell Callahan '26	Aidan Pesce '26 Kennedy Leehealey '26 Marbella Marlo '24 Alexandra Dorofeev '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	James Paul '23 Maddie Hawkins '24 Robert Bragg '23 Ryan Satterberg '27	Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 James Paul '23 Elise Donovan '24 Alexandra Pierce '25 Lilly Baker '27
Brown University	Bears	Connor Nelson '24 Guthrie Braun '26 Liam O'Keefe '26	Vera Allen '27 Savannah Young '25 Emily Mueller '25 Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26 Cam Spriggs '27
Stanford University	Cardinal	Reade Decker '27 Thomas Sitzmann '27 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Alexis Young '27 Gwendolyn Donahue '24 Alice Schmid '27 Lucas Woodworth '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Robert Ulmer '27 Sam Bruce '24	Matthew Elliott '24 Nicholas Abate '25 Max Katz-Christy '25 Jemma Schroder '24
Tulane University	Green Wave	Kelly Holthus '27 Matheo Graham-Capasso '26 Zander King '25	Brady Starck '25 Cj Ricci '25 Gillian Perrell '24
University of Miami	Hurricanes	Aidan Dennis '25 Atlee Kohl '25 Steven Hardee '26	Ana Stewart '27 Teddy Bueres '24 Natalie Elder '25 Briana Hummel '27

Conditions — 03/30/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 43% · Pressure 1003.2 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.0 kn

avg · max 14.7 kn

Gusts to 27.8 kn

From WNW (281°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1003.2 hPa

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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