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WAC Team Race @ Fordham

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 11–2
2 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 10–3
3 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 9–4
4 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 4–9
5 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 0–10
6 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,966 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.388 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.00 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 42% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Michigan
Wolverines		16.18Jack Homa / Alexander Reynolds 2.00
Lorenzo Puertas / Grace Redner
Jack Hammett / Ben Visco 1.63		85%7–2 (78%)−0.7
2SUNY Maritime College
Privateers		34.55
school −0.11		Nathaniel Hartwell / Rj Calanese
Jeremy Lunati / Michael Saharov 1.24
Luke Barker / Andrew Mccarthy 1.59		48%6–3 (67%)+1.7
3Fordham University
Rams		25.09
home +0.38		Luke Ondrey / Emilia Murat 1.66
Michael Burns / Campbell Carr
Jonathan Wittick / Payton Buckley		61%5–4 (56%)−0.5
4Washington College
Shoremen		42.27
school −0.10		Alexander Salzberg / Rachel Morgen
Austin Latimer / Soledad Fintel 0.70
George Wood / Ethan Rower 0.20		5%0–9 (0%)−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2SUNY Maritime College4.555.696–34.3+1.141.415%
3Fordham University5.094.755–45.5−0.350.180%
1University of Michigan6.185.637–27.7−0.560.387%
4Washington College2.27-0.730–90.5≤−3.000.7>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Nathaniel HartwellSUNY Maritime College1.652.796–34.3+1.141.415%
Jeremy LunatiSUNY Maritime College1.242.386–34.3+1.141.415%
Luke BarkerSUNY Maritime College1.592.736–34.3+1.141.415%
Luke OndreyFordham University1.661.315–45.5−0.350.180%
Michael BurnsFordham University1.461.125–45.5−0.350.180%
Jonathan WittickFordham University1.361.015–45.5−0.350.180%
Jack HomaUniversity of Michigan2.001.447–27.7−0.560.387%
Lorenzo PuertasUniversity of Michigan2.401.847–27.7−0.560.387%
Jack HammettUniversity of Michigan1.631.077–27.7−0.560.387%
Alexander SalzbergWashington College1.20-1.800–90.5≤−3.000.7>99%
Austin LatimerWashington College0.70-2.300–90.5≤−3.000.7>99%
George WoodWashington College0.20-2.800–90.5≤−3.000.7>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11SUNY Maritime CollegeFordham University38%upset
14University of MichiganFordham University75%
15SUNY Maritime CollegeWashington College92%
17Fordham UniversityWashington College95%
110University of MichiganWashington College98%
113University of MichiganSUNY Maritime College84%
216SUNY Maritime CollegeFordham University37%upset
219University of MichiganFordham University74%
223University of MichiganWashington College98%
226SUNY Maritime CollegeWashington College91%
228University of MichiganSUNY Maritime College83%
230Fordham UniversityWashington College94%
331Fordham UniversitySUNY Maritime College64%
332University of MichiganWashington College98%
333SUNY Maritime CollegeWashington College90%
334Fordham UniversityUniversity of Michigan26%upset
335Fordham UniversityWashington College94%
336SUNY Maritime CollegeUniversity of Michigan17%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.WolverinesPrivateersRamsShoremenWildcatsHens
University of Michigan Wolverines5–0✕WWWWW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers4–1L✕WWWW
Fordham University Rams3–2LL✕WWW
Washington College Shoremen2–3LLL✕WW
Villanova University Wildcats1–4LLLL✕W
University of Delaware Blue Hens0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WolverinesPrivateersRamsShoremenWildcatsHens
University of Michigan Wolverines5–0✕WWWWW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers4–1L✕WWWW
Fordham University Rams3–2LL✕WWW
Washington College Shoremen2–3LLL✕WW
Villanova University Wildcats1–4LLLL✕W
University of Delaware Blue Hens0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.WolverinesPrivateersRamsShoremen
University of Michigan Wolverines1–2✕LLW
SUNY Maritime College Privateers2–1W✕LW
Fordham University Rams3–0WW✕W
Washington College Shoremen0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-6 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-5
2 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. Villanova University Wildcats 4-5-6 DNS
3 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
4 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-5
5 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-6 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-5
6 Villanova University Wildcats 1-2-3 DNS def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
7 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
8 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
9 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-3 def. Villanova University Wildcats 4-5-6 DNS
10 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-5-6
11 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
12 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. Villanova University Wildcats 4-5-6 DNS
13 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
14 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Villanova University Wildcats 4-5-6 DNS
15 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
16 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-4-5 def. Fordham University Rams 2-3-6
17 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. Villanova University Wildcats 4-5-6 DNS
18 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
19 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. Fordham University Rams 3-4-5
20 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
21 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Villanova University Wildcats 4-5-6 DNS
22 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
23 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. Washington College Shoremen 4-5-6
24 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-3 def. Villanova University Wildcats 4-5-6 DNS
25 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
26 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-5-6
27 Fordham University Rams 1-2-3 def. Villanova University Wildcats 4-5-6 DNS
28 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3-4-5
29 Villanova University Wildcats 1-2-3 DNS def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
30 Fordham University Rams 1-2-4 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-5-6
31 Fordham University Rams 2-3-4 def. SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-5-6
32 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
33 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
34 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-4-6
35 Fordham University Rams 1-2-5 def. Washington College Shoremen 3-4-6
36 SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1-4-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 2-3-6

Conditions — 03/14/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 39%  ·  Pressure 1015.3 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.6 kn
avg  ·  max 16.4 kn
Gusts to 40.0 kn
From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover7% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1015.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Fordham — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Fordham in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fordham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled fleet-race days at Fordham).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →