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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11 16 27
2 Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 1 17 12 29
3 Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 2 23 33 56
4 University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 39 31 70
5 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 33 40 73
6 Ohio University Ohio University Bobcats 45 36 81
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 11 Andrew Gallagher '24
Nicholas Thuente '27
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 1 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 17 Nicholas Barillari '26
Alexa Quinn '26
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 2 3 4 3 3 1 3 4 2 23 Jenna Drobny '27
Beale Hughes '26
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 4 2 4 4 6 6 3 4 33 Sofia Ely '27 [1-8]
Murphy Bradley '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Dylan Jones '27 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 39 Kassidy Kennedy '26
Alex Schlotterer '25
Ohio University Ohio University Bobcats 6 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 45 Kieran Boetger '27
Elyse Hensley '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 12 Reed Porter '25
Matthew Back '24
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 1 3 1 1 2 4 3 16 Olivia Schmitt '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Joseph Opferman '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Aidan Kiergan '27 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 6 3 5 3 3 4 2 5 31 Nicholas Silecky '25
Nicholas Armantrout '26
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 2 4 4 2 5 5 3 6 4 33 Phillip Carter '27
Austin Strykowski '27
Ohio University Ohio University Bobcats 5 5 6 4 6 5 3 2 36 Andrew Champagne '26
Jamie Teed '26
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 3 6 4 6 4 6 5 6 40 Benjamin Conrad '26
Macon Hoover '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks 111335511
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks 222446622
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish55113355
Ohio UniversityOhio University Bobcats44662244
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes33551133
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets66224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks 122446622
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks 233551133
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish66224466
Ohio UniversityOhio University Bobcats55113355
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes44662244
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets11335511

Conditions — 10/21/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1005.3 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From SW (219°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1005.3 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn · N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Miami University: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.79 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Miami University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Miami University, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →