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Tommie Cup Clinegatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 2
2 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 4 4
3 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 7 7
4 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 7 7
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 1 2
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 2 2 4
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3 4 7
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 4 3 7

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  4 boats · 2 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1John Sullivan '26University of Notre Dame2/2-0.917.00++7.911st → 99th7.91%1.0 / 3.2
2James Leavitt '27University of Chicago2/21.191.03−0.1781st → 75th0.072%2.0 / 1.9
3Marco Constantini '27Northern Michigan University2/20.30-0.63−0.9339th → 2nd0.694%3.5 / 2.4
3Rakesh Dhiman '26University of Saint Thomas2/20.22-0.58−0.8034th → 2nd0.494%3.5 / 2.5

Conditions — 04/25/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.1 kn
avg  ·  max 2.3 kn
Gusts to 8.6 kn
From ENE (77°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine3.3 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1016.9 hPa Rain0.03 in

What this breeze does at Saint Thomas — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Saint Thomas in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saint Thomas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Saint Thomas: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →