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MCSA Open Fall Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 36 29 65
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 30 46 76
3 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 45 53 98
4 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 64 46 110
5 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 63 54 117
6 Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 48 70 118
7 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 55 66 121
8 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 52 78 130
9 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 89 63 152
10 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 96 83 179
11 Washington University Washington University Bears 116 93 209
12 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 95 127 222
13 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 124 123 247
14 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 137 119 256
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 5 4 4 3 1 1 3 4 4 1 30 Braden Vogel '27 [1-10]
Nina Gonzalez '27 [1-4]
Alden Gort '26 [5-10]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 8 2 5 1 4 6 1 1 1 7 36 Jake Weinstein '27
Herbert Single '27
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 6 6 1 2 6 2 5 11 3 3 45 Timothy Hesse '27
Aidan Kiergan '27
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 1 3 6 12 2 4 8 2 2 8 48 Nithya Balachander '25
Colin Herbolsheimer '27
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2 1 2 6 5 5 6 10 10 5 52 Greg Bittle '25 [1-10]
Naomi Peters '26 [1-4, 7-10]
Brady Boland '26 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 8 3 4 3 7 7 3 8 9 55 Jacqueline Ruggieri '27
Thomas Erickson '24
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 4 7 11 9 7 3 4 8 6 4 63 Eric Brieden '28
Colin Hexter '27
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 7 11 7 7 8 10 2 5 5 2 64 Andrew Michels '25 [1-10]
Lucas Rodenroth '27 [1-2]
Gavin Parsons '28 [3-10]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 9 9 10 5 11 11 10 6 7 11 89 Nok In Chan '25 [1-10]
Mathis Destouches '25 [1-4]
Alexander Charlton '28 [5-10]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 10 10 9 10 9 8 9 12 12 6 95 Mason Shaw '26
Benjamin Conrad '26
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 11 5 8 11 12 9 12 7 11 10 96 Jack Rutherford '25
Connor Bricco '26
Washington University Washington University Bears 13 14 13 13 10 12 11 9 9 12 116 Jacob Hsia '26
Gavin Yao '25
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 12 12 12 8 13 14 14 13 13 13 124 Carly Irwin '25 [1-10]
Nathaniel Bacheller '28 [1-2]
Gabriella Thomas '25 [3-10]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 14 13 14 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 137 Keegan Aerts '25
Natalie Scherf '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 6 2 2 5 3 2 5 2 1 1 29 Nicholas Chesemore '27 [1-2, 5-10]
Grace Bray '27 [3-4]
Samantha Forgosh '26 [1-2, 5-10]
Emi Rodes '28 [3-4]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 1 1 10 1 3 8 7 4 9 46 Billy Vogel '25
Alexander Reynolds '28
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 3 5 6 1 2 9 2 4 3 11 46 Lucas Rodenroth '27
Cecilia Dietsch '26
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 7 5 2 8 4 1 13 9 3 53 Payden Pittman '28
Jack O'Connor '26
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 4 4 4 4 7 1 6 8 12 4 54 Brian Zettlemoyer '27
Eva Paschke '25
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 5 12 10 6 4 5 7 1 11 2 63 Alexander Sau Hang Ching '28 [1-3]
Nathanael Green '28 [4-10]
Alexander Charlton '28 [1-3]
Max Liu '26 [4-10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 11 6 7 7 5 13 4 6 2 5 66 Nigel Yu '27 [1-10]
Caitlin Costello '28 [1-4, 7-10]
Phoebe Milhollin '28 [5-6]
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 7 11 8 3 10 10 3 3 7 8 70 Bryce Lesinski '27
Kate Weigand '28
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 10 3 3 8 6 8 10 14 10 6 78 Rakesh Dhiman '26 [1-10]
Leila Montoya '28 [1-3, 5-8]
Soren Gabor '26 [4, 9-10]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 8 8 9 12 11 6 12 5 5 7 83 Caroline Henry '27
Adelyn Zimmerman '28
Washington University Washington University Bears 12 9 11 9 9 7 11 9 6 10 93 Xinshi Feng '27
Yuxin Mou '25
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 14 14 13 13 14 11 9 11 8 12 119 William O'Haver '27
Jack Charlton '27
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 13 10 12 11 13 12 14 10 14 14 123 Nathaniel Bacheller '28
Margaret Redinger '25
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 9 13 14 14 12 14 13 12 13 13 127 Quinn Schwarz '25
Emma Leidheiser '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers1133557799
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen224466881010
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers335577991111
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles44668810101212
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines99111113131133
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One55779911111313
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats6688101012121414
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish1010121214142244
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes77991111131311
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers8810101212141422
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies11111313113355
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears131311335577
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos141422446688
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers12121414224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers224466881010
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen335577991111
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers44668810101212
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles55779911111313
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines1010121214142244
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One6688101012121414
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats77991111131311
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish11111313113355
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes8810101212141422
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers99111113131133
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies12121414224466
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears141422446688
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos1133557799
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers131311335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Carly Irwin '25 [1-10] Nathaniel Bacheller '28 [1-2]
Gabriella Thomas '25 [3-10]
Lakers Nathaniel Bacheller '28 Margaret Redinger '25
Hope College Hope College Jack Rutherford '25 Connor Bricco '26
Flying Dutchmen Caroline Henry '27 Adelyn Zimmerman '28
Indiana University Indiana University Nithya Balachander '25 Colin Herbolsheimer '27
Hoosiers Bryce Lesinski '27 Kate Weigand '28
Marquette University Marquette University Eric Brieden '28 Colin Hexter '27
Golden Eagles Brian Zettlemoyer '27 Eva Paschke '25
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Andrew Michels '25 [1-10] Lucas Rodenroth '27 [1-2]
Gavin Parsons '28 [3-10]
Husky One Lucas Rodenroth '27 Cecilia Dietsch '26
Northwestern University Northwestern University Jake Weinstein '27 Herbert Single '27
Wildcats Nicholas Chesemore '27 [1-2, 5-10]
Grace Bray '27 [3-4]		 Samantha Forgosh '26 [1-2, 5-10]
Emi Rodes '28 [3-4]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Mason Shaw '26 Benjamin Conrad '26
Buckeyes Quinn Schwarz '25 Emma Leidheiser '27
Purdue University Purdue University Nok In Chan '25 [1-10] Mathis Destouches '25 [1-4]
Alexander Charlton '28 [5-10]
Boilermakers Alexander Sau Hang Ching '28 [1-3]
Nathanael Green '28 [4-10]		 Alexander Charlton '28 [1-3]
Max Liu '26 [4-10]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Braden Vogel '27 [1-10] Nina Gonzalez '27 [1-4]
Alden Gort '26 [5-10]
Wolverines Billy Vogel '25 Alexander Reynolds '28
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Timothy Hesse '27 Aidan Kiergan '27
Fighting Irish Payden Pittman '28 Jack O'Connor '26
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Greg Bittle '25 [1-10] Naomi Peters '26 [1-4, 7-10]
Brady Boland '26 [5-6]
Tommies Rakesh Dhiman '26 [1-10] Leila Montoya '28 [1-3, 5-8]
Soren Gabor '26 [4, 9-10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Jacqueline Ruggieri '27 Thomas Erickson '24
Badgers Nigel Yu '27 [1-10] Caitlin Costello '28 [1-4, 7-10]
Phoebe Milhollin '28 [5-6]
Washington University Washington University Jacob Hsia '26 Gavin Yao '25
Bears Xinshi Feng '27 Yuxin Mou '25
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Keegan Aerts '25 Natalie Scherf '27
Broncos William O'Haver '27 Jack Charlton '27

Conditions — 11/02/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1030.1 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From ESE (123°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1030.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn · S 21 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hope: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hope by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Hope, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →