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B10 Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 10–2
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 8–4
3 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 6–6
4 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 4–8
5 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 24,669 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 21 of 30 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.707 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.73 ± 0.32: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 6% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Wisconsin
Badgers		14.89
school −0.22		Nicole Giuliani / Mary Daniels 1.66
Seamus Hendrickson / Adam Pickhardt 1.87
Sydney Mandell / Dylan Gorman 1.43		79%10–2 (83%)+0.6
2University of Michigan
Wolverines		42.85
school −0.28, home +0.40		John Mccalmont / Bryson Denuyl
Jack Hammett / Eleanor Ervine 0.88
Katherine Simcoe / Rachel Ward 0.71 5–4
Braden Vogel / Rachel Ward 2.48 3–0		30%8–4 (67%)+4.4
3University of Notre Dame
Fighting Irish		24.37
school −0.09		Timothy Hesse / Aidan Kiergan 2.07
Joseph Thuente / Carmela D’Antuono 1.82
Jack O'Connor / John Sullivan 0.46 4–5
Jack O'Connor / Kate Norman 0.55 2–1		67%6–6 (50%)−2.0
4Purdue University
Boilermakers		34.17
school +0.06		Odey Hariri / Zachary Gold 1.96
Sam Childers / Hadley Zeller 1.46
Alex Day / Aidan Kiel 2–4
Alex Day / Patrick Wu 2–4		62%4–8 (33%)−3.4
5Northwestern University
Wildcats		52.44
school −0.15		George Warfel / Herbert Single 0.62
Sydney Leon / Rebecca Rodriguez 0.32 2–7
Nicholas Chesemore / Joey Mcgarry 1.45 2–7
Nicholas Chesemore / Rebecca Rodriguez 1.52 0–3
Sydney Leon / Jordan Raizer 0.33 0–3		13%2–10 (17%)+0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2University of Michigan2.855.158–43.6+2.307.9<1%
1University of Wisconsin4.895.2310–29.4+0.340.150%
5Northwestern University2.442.762–101.5+0.320.146%
3University of Notre Dame4.373.466–68.0−0.901.396%
4Purdue University4.172.624–87.4−1.543.8>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
John MccalmontUniversity of Michigan0.432.728–43.6+2.307.9<1%
Katherine SimcoeUniversity of Michigan0.712.985–41.1+2.277.3<1%
Sydney LeonNorthwestern University0.320.642–101.5+0.320.146%
George WarfelNorthwestern University0.620.942–101.5+0.320.146%
Nicholas ChesemoreNorthwestern University1.451.772–101.5+0.320.146%
Joseph ThuenteUniversity of Notre Dame1.820.916–68.0−0.901.396%
Sam ChildersPurdue University1.46-0.094–87.4−1.543.8>99%
Alex DayPurdue University0.49-1.054–87.4−1.543.8>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Notre DameUniversity of Michigan89%
12University of WisconsinNorthwestern University92%
13University of MichiganPurdue University15%upset
14University of WisconsinUniversity of Notre Dame62%
15Purdue UniversityNorthwestern University85%
16University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan92%
17University of Notre DameNorthwestern University88%
18University of WisconsinPurdue University69%
19University of MichiganNorthwestern University85%
110Purdue UniversityUniversity of Notre Dame44%upset
211University of Notre DameNorthwestern University87%
212University of MichiganPurdue University15%upset
213University of WisconsinUniversity of Notre Dame62%
214University of MichiganNorthwestern University85%
215University of WisconsinPurdue University67%
216University of MichiganUniversity of Notre Dame13%upset
217Purdue UniversityNorthwestern University85%
218University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan92%
219University of Notre DamePurdue University54%
220Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin8%upset
321University of MichiganUniversity of Notre Dame13%upset
322Purdue UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin33%upset
323University of MichiganNorthwestern University85%
324University of WisconsinUniversity of Notre Dame63%
325Northwestern UniversityPurdue University15%upset
326University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan92%
327University of Notre DamePurdue University53%
328University of WisconsinNorthwestern University92%
329University of MichiganPurdue University15%upset
330University of Notre DameNorthwestern University86%

Round 1

TeamRec.BadgersWolverinesIrishBoilermakersWildcats
University of Wisconsin Badgers4–0✕WWWW
University of Michigan Wolverines2–2L✕LWW
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish2–2LW✕LW
Purdue University Boilermakers2–2LLW✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BadgersWolverinesIrishBoilermakersWildcats
University of Wisconsin Badgers3–1✕WWWL
University of Michigan Wolverines3–1L✕WWW
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish2–2LL✕WW
Purdue University Boilermakers1–3LLL✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats1–3WLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BadgersWolverinesIrishBoilermakersWildcats
University of Wisconsin Badgers3–1✕WWLW
University of Michigan Wolverines3–1L✕WWW
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish2–2LL✕WW
Purdue University Boilermakers1–3WLL✕L
Northwestern University Wildcats1–3LLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-3 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 4-5-6
2 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
3 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-5 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 2-4-6
4 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-5 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-4-6
5 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-6
6 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-5-6
7 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-6
8 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-5-6
9 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
10 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-2-4 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-5-6
11 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-3-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-5-6
12 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-4-5
13 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-4 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-5-6
14 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
15 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 2-5-6
16 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-5 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-4-6
17 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-3-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-5-6
18 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-3-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 1-5-6
19 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-2-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 3-5-6
20 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-3-6
21 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-4 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-5-6
22 Purdue University Boilermakers 1-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-4-6
23 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-4-6
24 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-6 def. University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-4-5
25 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-6 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 2-4-5
26 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-4-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 2-3-6
27 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-3-4 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 1-5-6
28 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
29 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-6 def. Purdue University Boilermakers 2-4-5
30 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-3-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 1-4-6

Conditions — 04/20/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.2 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From WNW (287°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1020.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Michigan — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Michigan in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →