Purdue University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 (fleet 0.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–8 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 4–8 against 7.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-20 | B10 Team Race | skipper | 0.49 | -1.05 | 4–8 | 7.4 | −1.54 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Cedarfest | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.7 | 1.22 |
| Boiler Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | 0.63 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Hoosier Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 0.45 |
| B10 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Kingfisher | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 1.37 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Hammer Showdown | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 0.86 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Morton Schapiro Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | -0.75 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Alex Day |  Torrey Pines High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
