Cedarfest

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 41 23 64
2 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 37 53 90
3 Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 39 52 91
4 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 42 55 97
5 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 51 56 107
6 Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 30 82 112
7 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 67 46 113
8 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 84 41 125
9 Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 112 44 156
10 University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 67 106 173
11 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 2 93 109 202
12 Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 118 113 231
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 8 2 4 2 2 1 4 1 4 2 30 Arden Carleton '26
Riley Hamilton '25
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 2 3 3 5 1 5 1 5 6 6 37 Alex Day '24
Annette Wadley '26
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 4 6 1 4 5 3 3 3 5 5 39 Emily Williams '25
Quinn Schwarz '25
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 5 5 7 1 8 2 6 2 2 3 41 Jack Rutherford '25
Connor Bricco '26
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 3 1 2 9 3 6 5 6 3 4 42 Marco Constantini '27
Ella Parker '25
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 1 4 6 6 9 7 8 8 1 1 51 Carly Irwin '25 [1-10]
Nathaniel Bacheller '28 [1-4, 9-10]
Gabriella Thomas '25 [5-8]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 7 7 9 3 4 4 10 7 9 7 67 Kassidy Kennedy '26
Nicholas Armantrout '26
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 10 9 5 7 6 8 2 4 8 8 67 Keegan Beyer '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ryan Dodge '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Thomas Weykamp '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Talena Monasmith '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 9 8 10 8 7 9 7 9 7 10 84 Keegan Aerts '25
Lucas Posthumus Meyjes '27
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 2 6 10 8 10 10 10 9 11 10 9 93 George Prokop '28 [1-4, 7-10]
Joey Skerbeck '27 [5-6]
Claire Ciamarra '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Paul Backlas '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 11 12 11 DNF 11 11 11 10 11 11 112 Tiegan Witte '24
Austin Strykowski '27
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 118 Adam Bryan '26 [1-10]
Elijah Sylvester '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Madison Koscielski '26 [3-4, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 1 1 2 2 5 6 1 2 1 2 23 Caroline Henry '27
No Show
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 3 6 6 4 2 2 9 4 2 3 41 Jack Charlton '27 [1-10]
Meg Tenpas '28 [1-4, 9-10]
Drew Lyman '27 [5-8]
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 8 9 3 5 3 1 4 1 4 6 44 Griffin Boothby '25
Devin O'Connor '26
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 4 3 1 1 9 8 3 6 6 5 46 Caden Meyers '27 [1-10]
Mia Stromberg '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Catherine Tanay '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Ella Beck '26 [9-10]
Ohio State University Ohio State University Buckeyes 7 5 5 9 7 3 5 7 3 1 52 Alexandra Avery '26
Jillian Hickman '27
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 2 8 4 6 1 4 8 5 7 8 53 Joseph Mowrey '25 [1-8]
Henrik Stjernfeldt '27 [9-10]
Henrik Stjernfeldt '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Dylan Mullan '28 [3-4, 7-10]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 5 2 8 3 6 5 7 3 9 7 55 Nathan Sylvester '25
Matt Cramer '26
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 6 4 7 7 4 7 2 10 5 4 56 Reed Rossell '25 [1-4, 9-10]
Garrett Szlachta '25 [5-6]
Reid Kwiatkowski '26 [7-8]
Samantha Brandon '26 [1-4, 9-10]
Nathaniel Bacheller '28 [5-6]
Reed Rossell '25 [7-8]
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 9 7 9 8 8 9 6 9 8 9 82 Alya Macmanaway '26
Lily Northon '28
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 11 11 12 11 10 10 11 8 12 10 106 Alex Schlotterer '25 [1-10]
Kira Bayes '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sam Hatton '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 2 10 10 10 12 11 11 12 11 10 12 109 Austin Sjaarda '27
Andrew Acton '28
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Cardinals 12 12 11 10 12 12 10 12 11 11 113 Claire Devoogd '26 [1-10]
Joshua Wilcox '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Dustin Peter '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers113355771010
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers224466881313
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen33557710101515
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks44668813131616
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans 155771010151511
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans 266881313161622
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats77101015151133
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes88131316162244
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers10101515113355
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals13131616224466
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets151511335577
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos161622446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers224466881313
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers33557710101515
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen44668813131616
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks55771010151511
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans 166881313161622
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans 277101015151133
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats88131316162244
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University Buckeyes10101515113355
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers13131616224466
Saginaw Valley State UniversitySaginaw Valley State University Cardinals151511335577
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets161622446688
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos113355771010
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Carly Irwin '25 [1-10] Nathaniel Bacheller '28 [1-4, 9-10]
Gabriella Thomas '25 [5-8]
Lakers Reed Rossell '25 [1-4, 9-10]
Garrett Szlachta '25 [5-6]
Reid Kwiatkowski '26 [7-8]
Samantha Brandon '26 [1-4, 9-10]
Nathaniel Bacheller '28 [5-6]
Reed Rossell '25 [7-8]
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Arden Carleton '26 Riley Hamilton '25
Chargers Alya Macmanaway '26 Lily Northon '28
Hope College Hope College Jack Rutherford '25 Connor Bricco '26
Flying Dutchmen Caroline Henry '27 No Show
Miami University Miami University Tiegan Witte '24 Austin Strykowski '27
Red Hawks Griffin Boothby '25 Devin O'Connor '26
Michigan State University Michigan State University Keegan Beyer '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ryan Dodge '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Thomas Weykamp '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Talena Monasmith '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Spartans 1 Caden Meyers '27 [1-10] Mia Stromberg '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Catherine Tanay '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Ella Beck '26 [9-10]
Michigan State University Michigan State University George Prokop '28 [1-4, 7-10]
Joey Skerbeck '27 [5-6]
Claire Ciamarra '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Paul Backlas '28 [3-4, 7-8]
Spartans 2 Austin Sjaarda '27 Andrew Acton '28
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Marco Constantini '27 Ella Parker '25
Wildcats Nathan Sylvester '25 Matt Cramer '26
Ohio State University Ohio State University Emily Williams '25 Quinn Schwarz '25
Buckeyes Alexandra Avery '26 Jillian Hickman '27
Purdue University Purdue University Alex Day '24 Annette Wadley '26
Boilermakers Joseph Mowrey '25 [1-8]
Henrik Stjernfeldt '27 [9-10]
Henrik Stjernfeldt '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Dylan Mullan '28 [3-4, 7-10]
Saginaw Valley State University Saginaw Valley State University Adam Bryan '26 [1-10] Elijah Sylvester '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Madison Koscielski '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Cardinals Claire Devoogd '26 [1-10] Joshua Wilcox '28 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Dustin Peter '25 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Kassidy Kennedy '26 Nicholas Armantrout '26
Rockets Alex Schlotterer '25 [1-10] Kira Bayes '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sam Hatton '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Keegan Aerts '25 Lucas Posthumus Meyjes '27
Broncos Jack Charlton '27 [1-10] Meg Tenpas '28 [1-4, 9-10]
Drew Lyman '27 [5-8]

Conditions — 10/26/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1029.6 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.2 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From NW (323°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover8% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1029.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Michigan State: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.27 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Michigan State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →