Northwestern University '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 (fleet 0.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–14 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 7–14 against 5.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-20 | B10 Team Race | skipper | 0.32 | 0.64 | 2–10 | 1.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2023-03-31 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.26 | 0.63 | 5–4 | 4.4 | +0.38 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| B10 Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NU Spring | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.0 | -0.75 |
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.0 | 0.16 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Womens Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 6.7 | — |
| Rebecca Blank | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.8 | -0.03 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
