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Rebecca Blank

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 36 25 61
2 Maroons Maroons Maroons 36 27 63
3 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 41 25 66
4 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 29 66 95
5 Washington University Washington University Bears 80 72 152
6 Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 49 104 153
7 Husky One Husky One Husky One 50 106 156
8 Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 84 75 159
9 Northwestern University Northwestern University White 98 75 173
10 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 72 108 180
11 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 94 89 183
12 University of Cincinnati University of Cincinnati Bearcats 120 73 193
13 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 150 65 215
14 Rockets Rockets Rockets 137 150 287
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2 1 1 5 2 1 9 3 1 4 29 Rachel Bartel '24
Meriah Kirschstein '24
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 3 3 2 4 4 4 5 3 5 36 Gavin Dempsey '26
Kerstin Hyer '25
Maroons Maroons Maroons 4 6 4 3 1 2 7 2 5 2 36
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 5 4 2 6 5 6 1 4 2 6 41 Odey Hariri '24
Nok In Chan '25
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 1 2 6 1 7 8 6 7 4 7 49 John Hultquist '23 [1-10]
Fiona Naughton '26 [1-8]
William Beckman '25 [9-10]
Husky One Husky One Husky One 6 7 5 9 3 3 2 6 6 3 50
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 7 5 11 8 10 11 3 1 8 8 72 Molly Sheridan '25 [1-10]
Anne Farah Usman '24 [1-6]
Kelvin Zheng '23 [7-10]
Washington University Washington University Bears 11 9 8 7 8 7 11 8 10 1 80 Thomas Marino '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Meredith Moore '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Meredith Moore '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Thomas Marino '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 8 10 7 10 9 9 5 9 7 10 84 Jenna Spray '23 [1-6]
Sydney Leon '26 [7-10]
Rebeca Navarro Santos Lion '25 [1-2]
Garrison Guzzeau '25 [3-6]
Avery Keare '23 [7-10]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10 11 9 4 11 10 10 11 9 9 94 Carter Hrabrick '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jack O'Connor '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Jack O'Connor '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Carter Hrabrick '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University White 12 13 10 12 6 5 8 10 11 11 98 Sara Chemello '24 [1-4]
Anna Kovacs '25 [5-6]
George Warfel '26 [7-10]
Prabhav Jain '23 [1-6]
Tara Chen '25 [7-10]
University of Cincinnati University of Cincinnati Bearcats 13 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 120 Seth Mobley '22 [1-10]
Gavin Lamphier '26 [1-2]
Adora Stephenson '25 [3-4, 9-10]
Reid Knox '23 [5-6]
Lillian Brown '23 [7-8]
Rockets Rockets Rockets 9 8 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 137
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 150 Kate Crannell '24
Samuel Monique '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 1 2 3 5 3 1 1 3 5 1 25 Justin Skene '24
Zachary Gold '24
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1 4 3 1 2 3 1 2 6 25 Annabel Bridges '23
Lauren Salmi '26
Maroons Maroons Maroons 3 5 2 1 2 5 4 2 1 2 27
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 4 4 7 4 4 10 7 6 7 12 65 Kate Crannell '24
Samuel Monique '25
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 5 7 5 12 11 9 2 7 3 5 66 Rakesh Dhiman '26 [1-10]
Livia Wagner '24 [1-2, 7-10]
Andre Bedros '26 [3-6]
Washington University Washington University Bears 10 6 13 7 6 3 8 4 11 4 72 Jacob Hsia '26
Ryan Painter '26
University of Cincinnati University of Cincinnati Bearcats 7 3 9 8 10 7 6 5 10 8 73 Gavin Lamphier '26 [1-10]
Lucas Thielmann '24 [1-2, 7-10]
Liam Kelly '24 [3-4]
Spencer Gerdes '24 [5-6]
Northwestern University Northwestern University White 8 8 12 9 7 4 9 11 4 3 75 Austin Porras '23 [1-6]
Millie Rose Taub '26 [7-8]
Nicholas Chesemore '27 [9-10]
Elise Lamarre '23 [1-6]
Ingrid Searby '25 [7-10]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 11 11 1 2 5 12 5 10 8 10 75 Peter Spoerri '23 [1-2]
Delaney Smith '26 [3-4]
Cole Abbott '26 [5-10]
Ella Weaver '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Peter Spoerri '23 [3-4]
Nora Rosenfeld '26 [7-10]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9 13 6 13 9 6 11 9 6 7 89 Cecilia Patrick '25 [1-10]
Muskaan Agarwal '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ishani Basak '25 [3-4, 7-10]
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 6 12 11 6 12 13 12 8 13 11 104 Ian Knox '24 [1-10]
Kiley Rubey '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Katherine Naughton '24 [3-4, 9-10]
William Beckman '25 [5-6]
Husky One Husky One Husky One 12 9 10 11 13 11 10 12 9 9 106
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 13 10 8 10 8 8 13 13 12 13 108 Ivan Shilov '25
Amir Graupe '23
Rockets Rockets Rockets DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 150
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
MaroonsMaroons Maroons8812121414161611
University of CincinnatiUniversity of Cincinnati Bearcats9913131515171722
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini1212141416161133
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers113366881212
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans224477991313
Husky OneHusky One Husky One33668812121414
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Purple44779913131515
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University White6688121214141616
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish1313151517172244
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers7799131315151717
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies14141616113366
RocketsRockets Rockets15151717224477
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears171722447799
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers161611336688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
MaroonsMaroons Maroons9913131515171722
University of CincinnatiUniversity of Cincinnati Bearcats1212141416161133
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini1313151517172244
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers224477991313
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans33668812121414
Husky OneHusky One Husky One44779913131515
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Purple6688121214141616
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University White7799131315151717
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish14141616113366
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers8812121414161611
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies15151717224477
RocketsRockets Rockets161611336688
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears113366881212
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers171722447799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Indiana University Indiana University John Hultquist '23 [1-10] Fiona Naughton '26 [1-8]
William Beckman '25 [9-10]
Hoosiers Ian Knox '24 [1-10] Kiley Rubey '24 [1-2, 7-8]
Katherine Naughton '24 [3-4, 9-10]
William Beckman '25 [5-6]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Kate Crannell '24 Samuel Monique '25
Spartans Kate Crannell '24 Samuel Monique '25
Northwestern University Northwestern University Jenna Spray '23 [1-6]
Sydney Leon '26 [7-10]		 Rebeca Navarro Santos Lion '25 [1-2]
Garrison Guzzeau '25 [3-6]
Avery Keare '23 [7-10]
Purple Peter Spoerri '23 [1-2]
Delaney Smith '26 [3-4]
Cole Abbott '26 [5-10]		 Ella Weaver '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Peter Spoerri '23 [3-4]
Nora Rosenfeld '26 [7-10]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Sara Chemello '24 [1-4]
Anna Kovacs '25 [5-6]
George Warfel '26 [7-10]		 Prabhav Jain '23 [1-6]
Tara Chen '25 [7-10]
White Austin Porras '23 [1-6]
Millie Rose Taub '26 [7-8]
Nicholas Chesemore '27 [9-10]		 Elise Lamarre '23 [1-6]
Ingrid Searby '25 [7-10]
Purdue University Purdue University Odey Hariri '24 Nok In Chan '25
Boilermakers Justin Skene '24 Zachary Gold '24
University of Cincinnati University of Cincinnati Seth Mobley '22 [1-10] Gavin Lamphier '26 [1-2]
Adora Stephenson '25 [3-4, 9-10]
Reid Knox '23 [5-6]
Lillian Brown '23 [7-8]
Bearcats Gavin Lamphier '26 [1-10] Lucas Thielmann '24 [1-2, 7-10]
Liam Kelly '24 [3-4]
Spencer Gerdes '24 [5-6]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Molly Sheridan '25 [1-10] Anne Farah Usman '24 [1-6]
Kelvin Zheng '23 [7-10]
Illini Ivan Shilov '25 Amir Graupe '23
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Carter Hrabrick '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jack O'Connor '26 [3-4, 7-8]		 Jack O'Connor '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Carter Hrabrick '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Fighting Irish Cecilia Patrick '25 [1-10] Muskaan Agarwal '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Ishani Basak '25 [3-4, 7-10]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Rachel Bartel '24 Meriah Kirschstein '24
Tommies Rakesh Dhiman '26 [1-10] Livia Wagner '24 [1-2, 7-10]
Andre Bedros '26 [3-6]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Gavin Dempsey '26 Kerstin Hyer '25
Badgers Annabel Bridges '23 Lauren Salmi '26
Washington University Washington University Thomas Marino '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Meredith Moore '23 [3-4, 7-8]		 Meredith Moore '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Thomas Marino '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Bears Jacob Hsia '26 Ryan Painter '26

Conditions — 10/15/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1013.2 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.4 kn
Gusts to 24.5 kn
From WSW (240°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover23% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1013.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn · W 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →