Northwestern University '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (fleet 2.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–6 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 9–6 against 7.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.10 | 2.61 | 4–2 | 3.5 | +0.52 | 0.2 | 49% |
| 2023-03-31 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.82 | 2.20 | 5–4 | 4.4 | +0.38 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| NU Spring | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 2.12 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| 2026 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 16.0 | 1.63 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NU Spring | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 2.22 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 5 | 50% | — |
| Harris Kempner Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.2 | 2.75 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.4 | 4.08 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.5 | 2.44 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.6 | 3.72 |
| Rebecca Blank | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.5 | 3.60 |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.9 | 2.18 |
| 2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - College | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.7 | 2.17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
