MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 5 6 11
2 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 10 14 24
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 21 9 30
4 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 18 18 36
5 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 19 21 40
6 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 16 26 42
7 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 30 18 48
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 1 2 5 Mary Castellini '25
Emma Komis '26
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 2 5 1 10 Delaney Smith '26
Maddie Fitzgerald '26
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 5 4 2 5 16 Molly Sheridan '25
Anne Farah Usman '24
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 4 DNF 3 3 18 Dominique Delano '23
Ella Beck '26
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 6 3 6 4 19 Jenna Kozal '24
Gwen Busch '25
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 DNF 4 6 21 Christiana Scheibner '23
Abigail Paul '25
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers DNF DNS 7 7 30 Camille Imbler '25 [1-4]
Hadley Zeller '26 [1-2]
Eleanor Gerstner '25 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2 2 1 6 Marissa Tegeder '25
Carmen Lineer '26
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 1 3 3 9 Luciana Solorzano '24
Lily Allen '23
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5 3 4 2 14 Anna Kovacs '25
Cora Star '26
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 4 4 5 5 18 Nok In Chan '24 [1-4]
Lily Rouget '26 [1-2]
Annette Wadley '26 [3-4]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 6 5 1 6 18 Kate Crannell '24
Mila Straskraba '25
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 3 7 7 4 21 Eva Paschke '25
Caroline Bielski '24
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 7 6 6 7 26 Bahda Hoang '23 [1-2]
Katie Benstead '23 [3-4]
Katie Benstead '23 [1-2]
Grace Morby '24 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini5577
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles1133
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines6611
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans2244
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats3355
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers4466
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers7722

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini6611
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles2244
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines7722
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans3355
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats4466
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers5577
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1133

Conditions — 04/01/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 998.0 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.5 kn
avg  ·  max 16.4 kn
Gusts to 32.7 kn
From W (280°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine2.9 hrs Humidity69% Pressure998.0 hPa Rain0.15 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 14 kn · S 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Michigan: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.25 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →