University of Wisconsin '25
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 43.89 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.101 rating points from 78 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (fleet 2.48) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 31–83 (27%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 7–13 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 17–25 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 7–20 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 0–25 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (114 matches) the record is 31–83 against 31.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.06 | 5.06 | 6–0 | 5.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 67% |
| 2025-03-01 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.12 | 1.31 | 1–13 | 1.7 | −0.81 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2024-04-28 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.16 | -0.84 | 0–11 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2024-04-12 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.15 | 2.32 | 5–1 | 4.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2024-04-05 | MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.90 | 3.88 | 9–1 | 6.0 | +1.98 | 3.6 | 4% |
| 2024-03-02 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.86 | 2.50 | 3–12 | 1.9 | +0.63 | 0.5 | 29% |
| 2023-03-31 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.77 | 1.52 | 6–3 | 6.4 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2023-02-25 | USF Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.80 | 0.87 | 1–17 | 2.3 | −0.93 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2022-03-05 | Green Wave Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.50 | -1.50 | 0–25 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Eastern National Semi Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.3 | 1.62 |
| Open Western Semi Finals | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.1 | 2.74 |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 1.6 | 2.72 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.6 | 2.25 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.2 | 2.17 |
| Wisco Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.7 | 1.90 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.7 | 3.29 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Open National Semi-Finals | Skipper | A | 1 | 15.0 | — |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.7 | 2.87 |
| MCSA Open Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| MCSA Open Fleet Race Qualifier | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 2.01 |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 0% | — |
| Eastern Women's National Semi-final Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 13.6 | 1.95 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.1 | 1.39 |
| Wisco Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.0 | 3.23 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 3.06 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championships Round 1B Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 13.2 | 1.86 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 6% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.1 | 1.84 |
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.2 | 4.75 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.9 | 2.50 |
| Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.7 | 1.47 |
| Wisco Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.9 | 3.42 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.9 | 3.44 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Green Wave Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 25 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.9 | 0.78 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.3 | 1.98 |
| Emma Biagioni Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.0 | 2.68 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Mary Castellini |  Evanston Township HS |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
