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USF Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 14–4
2 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 11–7
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 10–8
4 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 18,964 team race matches sailed before 2023-02-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 36 matches (61%) with a log-loss of 0.619 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.44 ± 0.30: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 12% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Old Dominion University
Monarchs		35.73
school +0.17		Elizabeth Gildea / Isabelle Kanach 2.17
Emma Friedauer / Allison Volk
Megan Geith / Cadence Goodnight 1.85		51%14–4 (78%)+4.9
2Jacksonville University
Fins		25.77Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.58
Kaitlyn Liebel / Mary Mann
Agija Elerte / Ella Bilow		52%11–7 (61%)+1.6
3University of South Florida
Bulls		17.06
home +0.38		Emma Shakespeare / Olivia Smith 2.27
Heidi Hicks / Jewel "Min Min" Kelly 1.92
Sydney Monahan / Ochithya Fernando 2.41		84%10–8 (56%)−5.2
4University of Wisconsin
Badgers		44.14
school −0.42		Marissa Tegeder / Carmen Lineer 1.56
Mary Castellini / Emma Komis 1.80
Sydney Mandell / Lauren Salmi		13%1–17 (6%)−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Old Dominion University5.737.2914–49.1+1.565.31%
2Jacksonville University5.776.2611–79.4+0.490.627%
4University of Wisconsin4.143.211–172.3−0.930.892%
3University of South Florida7.065.4810–815.2−1.586.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Agija ElerteJacksonville University1.441.9311–79.4+0.490.627%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida15%upset
12Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin83%
13Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin80%
14Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of South Florida20%upset
15Jacksonville UniversityOld Dominion University48%upset
16University of South FloridaUniversity of Wisconsin95%
27Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida20%upset
28Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin83%
29Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin83%
210Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of South Florida20%upset
211Old Dominion UniversityJacksonville University49%upset
212University of South FloridaUniversity of Wisconsin95%
313University of South FloridaJacksonville University79%
314Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin83%
315Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin84%
316University of South FloridaOld Dominion University79%
317Old Dominion UniversityJacksonville University48%upset
318University of WisconsinUniversity of South Florida5%upset
419Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida23%upset
420Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin83%
421Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin85%
422University of South FloridaOld Dominion University79%
423Old Dominion UniversityJacksonville University47%upset
424University of South FloridaUniversity of Wisconsin95%
525University of South FloridaJacksonville University76%
526Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin83%
527Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin85%
528Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of South Florida22%upset
529Old Dominion UniversityJacksonville University47%upset
530University of South FloridaUniversity of Wisconsin95%
631Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of South Florida24%upset
632Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin83%
633Jacksonville UniversityUniversity of Wisconsin85%
634University of South FloridaOld Dominion University78%
635Old Dominion UniversityJacksonville University46%upset
636University of South FloridaUniversity of Wisconsin95%

Round 1

TeamRec.MonarchsFinsBullsBadgers
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–1✕LWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–0W✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls1–2LL✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.MonarchsFinsBullsBadgers
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–0✕WWW
Jacksonville University Fins2–1L✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls1–2LL✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.MonarchsFinsBullsBadgers
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–1✕WLW
Jacksonville University Fins1–2L✕LW
University of South Florida Bulls2–1WW✕L
University of Wisconsin Badgers1–2LLW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.MonarchsFinsBullsBadgers
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–1✕WLW
Jacksonville University Fins2–1L✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls2–1WL✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers0–3LLL✕

Round 5

TeamRec.MonarchsFinsBullsBadgers
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–0✕WWW
Jacksonville University Fins1–2L✕LW
University of South Florida Bulls2–1LW✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers0–3LLL✕

Round 6

TeamRec.MonarchsFinsBullsBadgers
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–1✕WLW
Jacksonville University Fins2–1L✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls2–1WL✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
2 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
3 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
4 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-4-6
5 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-5-6
6 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
7 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
8 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
9 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
10 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
11 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
12 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
13 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-5
14 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-5
15 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
16 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-5
17 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-4-5
18 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
19 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
20 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
21 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
22 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
23 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
24 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
25 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
26 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-5
27 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-5-6
28 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
29 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
30 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
31 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
32 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-4-6
33 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4-5-6
34 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-5-6
35 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
36 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6

Conditions — 02/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From NNW (331°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover31% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1024.0 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →