| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 24–1 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 18–7 |
| 3 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 14–11 |
| 4 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 10–15 |
| 5 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 9–16 |
| 6 |  |
University of Wisconsin | Badgers | 0–25 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 63 of 75 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.382 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.01 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston College | 9.50 | 11.01 | 24–1 | 21.5 | +1.51 | 2.3 | 9% |
| 3 | College of Charleston | 7.03 | 8.10 | 14–11 | 10.1 | +1.08 | 3.1 | 3% |
| 5 | University of South Florida | 6.16 | 7.00 | 9–16 | 6.3 | +0.83 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2 | Tulane University | 9.01 | 8.60 | 18–7 | 19.3 | −0.41 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 4 | Jacksonville University | 8.18 | 6.63 | 10–15 | 15.6 | −1.54 | 6.3 | >99% |
| 6 | University of Wisconsin | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0–25 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 3.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Reineke | Boston College | 2.78 | 4.29 | 24–1 | 21.5 | +1.51 | 2.3 | 9% |
| Fredrikke Foss | College of Charleston | 1.97 | 3.04 | 14–11 | 10.1 | +1.08 | 3.1 | 3% |
| Kiera Oreardon | College of Charleston | 2.33 | 3.40 | 14–11 | 10.1 | +1.08 | 3.1 | 3% |
| Mia Hanes | Tulane University | 2.51 | 2.11 | 18–7 | 19.3 | −0.41 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | Tulane University | 3.25 | 2.84 | 18–7 | 19.3 | −0.41 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Maartje Van Dam | Jacksonville University | 2.23 | 0.68 | 10–15 | 15.6 | −1.54 | 6.3 | >99% |
| Charlotte Rose | Jacksonville University | 3.05 | 1.51 | 10–15 | 15.6 | −1.54 | 6.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Wave | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Badgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 3–2 | L | L | W | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Wave | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Badgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 4–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 5–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Wave | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Badgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Wave | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Badgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–3 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Wave | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Badgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–2 | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 2–3 | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 5 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulls | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulls | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Fins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 2-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Fins | 1-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 49 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-4-6 |
| 55 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-5-6 |
| 56 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 57 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 1-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 60 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 61 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fins | 4-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-5-6 |
| 64 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 65 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 66 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 67 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 69 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 70 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 71 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 72 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 73 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 74 | |
Bulls | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 2-4-6 |
| 75 | |
Fins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston College | Eagles | Colleen O'Brien '24 Michaela O'Brien '24 Sophia Reineke '22 |
Laura Ferraris '22 Lilly Mathieu '23 Katelyn Mcgauley '24 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Caroline Benson '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Mia Hanes '24 |
Abigail Borggaard '24 Lydia Brown '23 Annie Richard '23 Isabella Bentz '24 Essie Clifton '25 |
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24 Kiera Oreardon '22 |
Roxanne Snyder '23 Chloe Hudgins '24 Sophia Browne '25 Rowan Schanley '24 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Charlotte Rose '22 Emily Allen '25 Maartje Van Dam '23 |
Elizabeth Johnson '22 Grace Benzal '23 Caroline Bourgeois '22 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Sydney Monahan '23 |
Olivia Smith '23 Jewel "Min Min" Kelly '24 Jackie Morrison '23 |
|
University of Wisconsin | Badgers | Hailey Feinzig '22 Marissa Tegeder '25 Mary Castellini '25 |
Kate Thickens '23 Sophie Lusty '24 Elisabeth Johanson '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
