| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 13–2 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 11–3 |
| 3 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 10–5 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 4–10 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 3–12 |
| 6 |  |
University of Wisconsin | Badgers | 3–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 36 of 44 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.403 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.04 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 39% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Georgetown University | 7.61 | 8.68 | 11–3 | 9.0 | +1.07 | 1.5 | 15% |
| 6 | University of Wisconsin | 4.82 | 5.45 | 3–12 | 1.9 | +0.63 | 0.5 | 29% |
| 4 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 5.54 | 5.72 | 4–10 | 3.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 3 | Old Dominion University | 7.63 | 7.51 | 10–5 | 10.2 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 1 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.16 | 8.58 | 13–2 | 13.7 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 5 | U. S. Naval Academy | 5.93 | 4.64 | 3–12 | 5.4 | −1.29 | 2.2 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cho-Cho Williams | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.57 | 1.74 | 4–10 | 3.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 54% |
| Lily Flack | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.79 | 1.97 | 4–10 | 3.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 54% |
| Torrey Chisari | University of Pennsylvania | 3.10 | 2.52 | 13–2 | 13.7 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Madeleine Rice | University of Pennsylvania | 2.71 | 2.13 | 13–2 | 13.7 | −0.58 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | U. S. Naval Academy | 1.73 | 0.44 | 3–12 | 5.4 | −1.29 | 2.2 | 98% |
| Ava Farley | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.33 | 1.04 | 3–12 | 5.4 | −1.29 | 2.2 | 98% |
| Kate Zurinskas | U. S. Naval Academy | 0.91 | -2.09 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Quakers | Hoyas | Monarchs | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Badgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Quakers | Hoyas | Monarchs | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Badgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 1–4 | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Quakers | Hoyas | Monarchs | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Badgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 3–2 | ✕ | L | L | W | W | W |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–0 | W | ✕ | W | – | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 4–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–2 | L | – | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Badgers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Badgers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Badgers | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Monarchs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 35 | |
Badgers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Hoyas | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Badgers | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24 |
Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Hannah Bast '25 Kiki Bruzzi '25 |
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Kelly Bates '26 Morgan Rice '25 Piper Holthus '25 |
Margot Gordon '26 Alexis Tamm '26 Audrey Fung '24 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Elizabeth Gildea '24 Gianna Dewey '27 Megan Geith '24 |
Cadence Goodnight '26 Allison Volk '25 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Cho-Cho Williams '26 Lily Flack '25 Lina Carper '27 |
Grace Phillips '27 Mary Catherine Hill '27 Lillian Newman '25 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Aubin Hattendorf '24 Ava Farley '26 Kate Zurinskas '27 Margo Cicero '26 |
Catherine Aitken '24 Linnea Forsberg '25 Josephine Sherry '27 Maggie Schuler '25 |
|
University of Wisconsin | Badgers | Jacqueline Ruggieri '27 Marissa Tegeder '25 Mary Castellini '25 |
Paige Kurtenbach '27 Lauren Salmi '26 Carmen Lineer '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
