MCSA Open Fleet Race Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 36 43 79
2 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 37 47 84
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 52 33 85
4 Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 40 65 105
5 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 61 47 108
6 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 54 64 118
7 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 72 50 122
8 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 57 75 132
9 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 82 MRP 52 MRP 134 MRP
10 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 83 101 184
11 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 108 103 211
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 4 3 1 1 3 7 5 1 7 36 Charlie Herrick '26
Kerstin Hyer '25
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 8 1 3 7 5 3 3 2 2 37 Jake Weinstein '27
Cora Star '26
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 7 1 8 7 2 1 6 2 3 3 40 Nithya Balachander '25 [1-10]
Daniel De La Vega Iii '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Delaynie Grove '24 [3-4, 7-10]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 3 4 4 6 DSQ 5 4 7 6 52 Joe Serpa '24
Asha Baddi '24
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 5 5 7 8 DSQ 2 4 1 6 4 54 Odey Hariri '24
Nok In Chan '25
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 8 7 6 6 9 8 1 6 5 1 57 Christian Ehrnrooth '24
Natalie Manley '24
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2 2 9 5 5 4 10 7 9 8 61 Joseph Gallagher '24
Jack O'Connor '26
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 6 6 5 9 4 7 8 8 10 9 72 Nick Myneni '26 [1-2, 5-8]
Andrew Michels '25 [3-4, 9-10]
Andrew Michels '25 [1-2]
Katherine Sorbie '27 [3-10]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 10 9 2 2 8 6 2 10 8 5 82 MRP Greg Bittle '25 [1-10]
Rakesh Dhiman '26 [1-6]
Lily Lupardus '27 [7-10]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 9 10 10 10 3 9 9 9 4 10 83 Jenna Kozal '24
Eva Paschke '25
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 108 Carly Irwin '25
Gabriella Thomas '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 10 8 1 1 3 1 1 5 1 2 33 Luciana Solorzano '24 [1-2]
Braden Vogel '27 [3-10]
Nina Gonzalez '27 [1-2]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 5 5 6 5 1 4 7 2 3 5 43 Mary Castellini '25 [1-4]
Gavin Dempsey '26 [5-10]
Carmen Lineer '26 [1-4]
Ellie Murphy '24 [5-10]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 6 4 7 2 3 8 8 5 3 47 Joseph Thuente '24 [1-4]
Timothy Hesse '27 [5-10]
Carmela D’Antuono '24 [1-4]
Aidan Kiergan '27 [5-10]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 1 8 4 5 5 9 1 4 7 47 Grace Bray '27
Maddie Fitzgerald '26
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 4 2 3 3 10 8 2 3 6 9 50 Lucas Rodenroth '27 [1-10]
Cecilia Dietsch '26 [1-4, 7-10]
Hannah Monville '27 [5-6]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 2 3 2 2 7 2 5 6 2 1 52 MRP Rachel Bartel '24
Meriah Kirschstein '24
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 6 4 9 8 4 7 3 9 8 6 64 Justin Skene '24 [1-6, 9-10]
Sam Childers '27 [7-8]
Connor Chung '26 [1-8]
Zachary Gold '24 [9-10]
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 7 11 7 9 6 6 4 4 7 4 65 Bryce Lesinski '27 [1-10]
Angus Gilbreath '27 [1-4]
Sammy Stoeber '24 [5-10]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 9 7 5 6 8 9 6 7 10 8 75 Max Zhalilo '26 [1-4]
Hayden Flaskerud '24 [5-10]
Yili Wen '27 [1-4]
Claire Zhang '24 [5-10]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 8 9 10 11 9 10 11 11 11 11 101 Brian Zettlemoyer '27 [1-6]
John Riordan '26 [7-10]
Elaina Kobal '24 [1-2, 9-10]
Stella Brown '27 [3-8]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 11 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 103 Garrett Szlachta '25
Bryce Koopman '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons779911112244
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers1133557799
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers224466881010
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles335577991111
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines881010113355
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One446688101011
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats557799111122
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish991111224466
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers668810101133
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies101011335577
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers111122446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons881010113355
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers224466881010
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers335577991111
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles446688101011
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines991111224466
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One557799111122
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats668810101133
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish101011335577
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers779911112244
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies111122446688
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Carly Irwin '25 Gabriella Thomas '25
Lakers Garrett Szlachta '25 Bryce Koopman '24
Indiana University Indiana University Nithya Balachander '25 [1-10] Daniel De La Vega Iii '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Delaynie Grove '24 [3-4, 7-10]
Hoosiers Bryce Lesinski '27 [1-10] Angus Gilbreath '27 [1-4]
Sammy Stoeber '24 [5-10]
Marquette University Marquette University Jenna Kozal '24 Eva Paschke '25
Golden Eagles Brian Zettlemoyer '27 [1-6]
John Riordan '26 [7-10]
Elaina Kobal '24 [1-2, 9-10]
Stella Brown '27 [3-8]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Nick Myneni '26 [1-2, 5-8]
Andrew Michels '25 [3-4, 9-10]
Andrew Michels '25 [1-2]
Katherine Sorbie '27 [3-10]
Husky One Lucas Rodenroth '27 [1-10] Cecilia Dietsch '26 [1-4, 7-10]
Hannah Monville '27 [5-6]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Jake Weinstein '27 Cora Star '26
Wildcats Grace Bray '27 Maddie Fitzgerald '26
Purdue University Purdue University Odey Hariri '24 Nok In Chan '25
Boilermakers Justin Skene '24 [1-6, 9-10]
Sam Childers '27 [7-8]
Connor Chung '26 [1-8]
Zachary Gold '24 [9-10]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Christian Ehrnrooth '24 Natalie Manley '24
Maroons Max Zhalilo '26 [1-4]
Hayden Flaskerud '24 [5-10]
Yili Wen '27 [1-4]
Claire Zhang '24 [5-10]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Joe Serpa '24 Asha Baddi '24
Wolverines Luciana Solorzano '24 [1-2]
Braden Vogel '27 [3-10]
Nina Gonzalez '27 [1-2]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Joseph Gallagher '24 Jack O'Connor '26
Fighting Irish Joseph Thuente '24 [1-4]
Timothy Hesse '27 [5-10]
Carmela D’Antuono '24 [1-4]
Aidan Kiergan '27 [5-10]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Greg Bittle '25 [1-10] Rakesh Dhiman '26 [1-6]
Lily Lupardus '27 [7-10]
Tommies Rachel Bartel '24 Meriah Kirschstein '24
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Charlie Herrick '26 Kerstin Hyer '25
Badgers Mary Castellini '25 [1-4]
Gavin Dempsey '26 [5-10]
Carmen Lineer '26 [1-4]
Ellie Murphy '24 [5-10]

Conditions — 04/06/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1022.0 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From NNW (349°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1022.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · E 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Michigan: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.32 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →