Northwestern University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 (fleet 1.17) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–13 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 12–13 against 11.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.01 | 0.62 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2024-04-12 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.08 | 1.60 | 4–2 | 3.5 | +0.52 | 0.2 | 49% |
| 2023-03-31 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.91 | 1.28 | 5–4 | 4.4 | +0.38 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 2022-04-02 | MCSA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.47 | 0.41 | 1–3 | 1.0 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Western National Semi Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 16.2 | 0.41 |
| NU Spring | Crew | B | 6 | 5.8 | -0.17 |
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | -1.10 |
| Buckeye Intercollegiate Offshore Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 4.0 | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.9 | 0.02 |
| Great Lakes IOR - T10 Division Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 1.8 | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 16.1 | 0.68 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.0 | 0.98 |
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 5 | 50% | — |
| MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.0 | 1.33 |
| Harris Kempner Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.3 | -0.17 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.7 | 1.79 |
| 2024 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 12.0 | 0.86 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.5 | 1.12 |
| Harris Kempner Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.5 | 1.09 |
| Cream City Classic | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 1.17 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Rebecca Blank | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.5 | 1.15 |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.0 | 1.51 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 9.8 | -1.16 |
| NU Spring | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 0.79 |
| MCSA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Morton Schapiro Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | -0.51 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
