NU Spring

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 7 6 13
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 13 15 28
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 23 21 44
4 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 26 21 47
5 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 22 32 54
6 Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 35 35 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 7 Will Davies '22
Aviva Kaplan '24
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 2 4 2 1 2 13 Samuel Ephraim '22
Bryson Denuyl '24
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 3 4 2 4 4 5 22 Ben Kosvic '19
Luke Hiller '10
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 4 3 3 5 5 3 23 Jenna Spray '23 [1-6]
Rebeca Navarro Santos Lion '25 [1-5]
Garrison Guzzeau '25 [6]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 5 6 5 3 3 4 26 Dominique Delano '23
Brynna Smith '22
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 6 5 6 6 6 6 35 Aj Mcritchie '22
Aaron Hofer '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Anton De Lesseps '22
Alison Rosengren '22
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 2 2 2 2 4 15 Zachary Beyer '25
Alexander Manthous '24
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 2 4 4 3 3 5 21 Anna Kovacs '25
Prabhav Jain '23
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 4 3 3 4 4 3 21 Naveen Kumanan '23 [1-6]
Alexander Maas '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Kate Crannell '24 [3-4]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 5 6 DNS DNS 5 2 32 Matthew Rothfusz '13
Miles Lubin '11
Miami University Miami University Red Hawks 6 5 5 5 DNS DNS 35 Allison Hoeft '24
Anna Bloomquist '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (24 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons551133
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks113355
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines662244
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans224466
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 1335511
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 2446622

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons662244
Miami UniversityMiami University Red Hawks224466
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines113355
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans335511
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 1446622
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 2551133

Conditions — 05/07/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From NNE (21°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn* · S 8 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.58 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →