2024 Rose Bowl Regatta

HostSouthern Cal
Date01/06/2024
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Boston College	Eagles	17	32	49
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	34	29	63
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	32	38	70
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	41	35	76
5	Fordham University	Rams	46	31	77
6	Boston University	Terriers	44	57	101
7	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	60	57	117
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	54	65	119
9	University of Southern California	Trojans	78	52	130
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	73	64	137
11	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	80	93	173
12	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	95	95	190
13	Northwestern University	Wildcats	109	92	201
14	University of Virginia	Wahoos	100	102	202
15	University of Oregon	Ducks	101	117	218
16	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	120	104	224

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Boston College	Eagles	1	1	5	1	2	3	2	2	17	Peter Busch '26 Sara Schumann '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3	6	3	2	4	1	9	4	32	Daniel Unangst '24 Charles Pohl '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	2	3	4	BKD	1	11	7	3	34	Diego Escobar '25 Emily Panarella '24
Roger Williams University	Hawks	5	5	2	5	12	4	1	7	41	Oliver Stokke '26 Maggie Fleming '27
Boston University	Terriers	6	2	1	9	7	2	11	6	44	Noah Robitshek '25 Benjamin Luu '27
Fordham University	Rams	7	4	8	4	10	6	6	1	46	Peter Lobaugh '24 [1-8] Kristen Healy '24 [1-4, 6-8] Isabella Arrigo '27 [5]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	8	9	6	10	5	8	3	5	54	Madison Bashaw '24 Rachel O'Neill '24
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	9	7	10	3	6	12	4	9	60	Marianna Shand '24 Linnea Jackson '25
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	13	8	9	12	13	5	5	8	73	Lars Osell '24 Annika Vanderhorst '27
University of Southern California	Trojans	4	13	7	6	8	13	DNF	10	78	Luke Harris '27 [1-4, 6-8] Davis Winsor '24 [5] Ariana Gabier '24 [1-4, 7-8] Marlo Bozza '25 [5] Jackson Mckinley '26 [6]
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	10	10	11	7	9	7	10	16	80	Nicholas Mueller '27 Sam Jennings '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	14	12	12	15	3	10	15	14	95	Robert Bloomfield '26 [1-8] Claire Wiley '27 [1-2, 5-6] Paige O’Dell '27 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Virginia	Wahoos	12	11	14	13	14	16	8	12	100	Anna Groszkowski '26 [1-2, 5-6] Connor Lothrop '24 [3-4, 7-8] Laura Rhodes '24 [1-2] Luca Bonanno '25 [3-8]
University of Oregon	Ducks	11	14	13	11	15	9	13	15	101	Emily Avey '25 [1-2, 5-6] Joseph Qualtier '27 [3-4, 7-8] Aidan Clark '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Northwestern University	Wildcats	15	15	16	14	11	15	12	11	109	Jake Weinstein '27 Millie Rose Taub '26
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	16	16	15	16	16	14	14	13	120	Alexander Kaslosas '26 Catherine Arcaris '26

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas	7	3	1	2	1	8	2	5	29	Piper Holthus '25 [1-8] Audrey Fung '24 [1-4] Poshu Ng '27 [5-8]
Fordham University	Rams	6	2	4	1	3	9	BKD	2	31	Connor Bennett '26 Samantha Hemans '27
Boston College	Eagles	1	1	BKD	4	2	DSQ	1	4	32	Peter Joslin '26 Michaela O'Brien '24
Roger Williams University	Hawks	2	5	6	3	5	4	7	3	35	Jack Roman '26 Addyson Fisher '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8	6	2	7	10	1	3	1	38	Bradley Whiteway '26 Mia Quinlan '24
University of Southern California	Trojans	9	4	3	6	11	2	8	9	52	Hudson Mayfield '27 Jan Matteo Bassi '27
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	3	7	13	9	4	3	6	12	57	Daren Sathasivam '25 [1-8] Aidan Araoz '25 [1-2, 7-8] Nitsa Thotz '26 [3-4] Teresa Dang '24 [5-6]
Boston University	Terriers	14	8	5	5	8	5	5	7	57	Tiare Sierra '25 Morgan Contrino '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	10	10	8	8	7	11	4	6	64	Reed Mcallister '27 Katherine Mason '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	4	9	9	10	9	7	9	8	65	Max Kleha '25 Brooke Bertrand '25
Northwestern University	Wildcats	16	16	10	12	6	6	10	16	92	Grace Bray '27 [1-2, 5-6] Anna Kovacs '25 [3-4, 7-8] Garrison Guzzeau '25 [1-2, 5-6]
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	5	13	12	13	14	10	12	14	93	Ben Louttit '26 Logan Chapman '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	13	12	7	11	16	12	11	13	95	Samuel Groom '24 [1-8] Dylan Tran '24 [1-2, 5-6] Daniel Gates '26 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Virginia	Wahoos	11	15	11	15	12	13	15	10	102	Colin Miedler '26 [1-2, 5-6] James Unger '27 [3-4, 7-8] Brooke Davi '25 [1-2, 5-6]
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	12	11	14	14	13	15	14	11	104	Emerson Marquez '27 Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27
University of Oregon	Ducks	15	14	15	16	15	14	13	15	117	Dylan Murphy '26 [1-2, 5-6] Sadie Creemer '25 [3-4, 7-8] Ryan Tuttle '27 [1-2, 5-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
University of California at Berkeley Bears	138	138	77	77	75	75	47	47
Boston College Eagles	35	35			137	137	76	76
Boston University Terriers	38	38	90	90			138	138
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	30	30	38	38	90	90
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs			137	137	76	76	78	78
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	77	77	75	75	47	47	30	30
Fordham University Rams	137	137	76	76	78	78	36	36
Georgetown University Hoyas	47	47	30	30	38	38	90	90
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	36	36	27	27	37	37	35	35
Northwestern University Wildcats	76	76	78	78	36	36	27	27
University of Oregon Ducks			138	138	77	77	75	75
Roger Williams University Hawks	75	75	47	47	30	30	38	38
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	35	35			137	137
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	78	78	36	36	27	27	37	37
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	27	27	37	37	35	35
University of Virginia Wahoos	90	90			138	138	77	77

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
University of California at Berkeley Bears	36	36	78	78	76	76	137	137
Boston College Eagles	38	38	30	30	47	47	75	75
Boston University Terriers	35	35	37	37	27	27	36	36
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers			35	35	37	37	27	27
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	30	30	47	47	75	75	77	77
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	78	78	76	76	137	137
Fordham University Rams	47	47	75	75	77	77	138	138
Georgetown University Hoyas	137	137			35	35	37	37
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	138	138			90	90	38	38
Northwestern University Wildcats	75	75	77	77	138	138
University of Oregon Ducks	27	27	36	36	78	78	76	76
Roger Williams University Hawks	76	76	137	137			35	35
University of Southern California Trojans	90	90	38	38	30	30	47	47
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	77	77	138	138			90	90
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins			90	90	38	38	30	30
University of Virginia Wahoos	37	37	27	27	36	36	78	78

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Peter Busch '26	Sara Schumann '25
Eagles	Peter Joslin '26	Michaela O'Brien '24
Boston University	Noah Robitshek '25	Benjamin Luu '27
Terriers	Tiare Sierra '25	Morgan Contrino '24
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Robert Bloomfield '26 [1-8]	Claire Wiley '27 [1-2, 5-6] Paige O’Dell '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Mustangs	Samuel Groom '24 [1-8]	Dylan Tran '24 [1-2, 5-6] Daniel Gates '26 [3-4, 7-8]
California Maritime Academy	Nicholas Mueller '27	Sam Jennings '27
Keelhaulers	Ben Louttit '26	Logan Chapman '26
Fordham University	Peter Lobaugh '24 [1-8]	Kristen Healy '24 [1-4, 6-8] Isabella Arrigo '27 [5]
Rams	Connor Bennett '26	Samantha Hemans '27
Georgetown University	Diego Escobar '25	Emily Panarella '24
Hoyas	Piper Holthus '25 [1-8]	Audrey Fung '24 [1-4] Poshu Ng '27 [5-8]
Northwestern University	Jake Weinstein '27	Millie Rose Taub '26
Wildcats	Grace Bray '27 [1-2, 5-6] Anna Kovacs '25 [3-4, 7-8]	Garrison Guzzeau '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Roger Williams University	Oliver Stokke '26	Maggie Fleming '27
Hawks	Jack Roman '26	Addyson Fisher '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Madison Bashaw '24	Rachel O'Neill '24
Seahawks	Max Kleha '25	Brooke Bertrand '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Daniel Unangst '24	Charles Pohl '26
Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26	Mia Quinlan '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Lars Osell '24	Annika Vanderhorst '27
Mariners	Reed Mcallister '27	Katherine Mason '27
University of California at Berkeley	Alexander Kaslosas '26	Catherine Arcaris '26
Bears	Emerson Marquez '27	Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27
University of California at Los Angeles	Marianna Shand '24	Linnea Jackson '25
Bruins	Daren Sathasivam '25 [1-8]	Aidan Araoz '25 [1-2, 7-8] Nitsa Thotz '26 [3-4] Teresa Dang '24 [5-6]
University of Oregon	Emily Avey '25 [1-2, 5-6] Joseph Qualtier '27 [3-4, 7-8]	Aidan Clark '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Ducks	Dylan Murphy '26 [1-2, 5-6] Sadie Creemer '25 [3-4, 7-8]	Ryan Tuttle '27 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Southern California	Luke Harris '27 [1-4, 6-8] Davis Winsor '24 [5]	Ariana Gabier '24 [1-4, 7-8] Marlo Bozza '25 [5] Jackson Mckinley '26 [6]
Trojans	Hudson Mayfield '27	Jan Matteo Bassi '27
University of Virginia	Anna Groszkowski '26 [1-2, 5-6] Connor Lothrop '24 [3-4, 7-8]	Laura Rhodes '24 [1-2] Luca Bonanno '25 [3-8]
Wahoos	Colin Miedler '26 [1-2, 5-6] James Unger '27 [3-4, 7-8]	Brooke Davi '25 [1-2, 5-6]

Conditions — 01/06/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.4 kn

avg · max 9.5 kn

Gusts to 16.1 kn

From SE (129°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1019.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn · NW 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Southern Cal: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.26

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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