| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 5–1 |
| 3 |  |
Birmingham Public Schools | Varsity | 2–4 |
| 4 |  |
Troy High School | Troy | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,590 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 12 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.354 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.73 ± 0.65: an orderly event, more orderly than 93% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latin School of Chicago Romans | 1 | 4.76 school +0.20 | Christian Prendergast / Maya Mahoney 2.33 Domenic Sacchetti / Emery Sularz 0.55 Timothy Hesse / Emily Marlas 1.67 | 79% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.2 |
| 2 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 2 | 3.95 | Walter Paliga / Liam Gilin 1.06 Vinny Paliga / Jack Armstrong 1.63 Brent Armstrong / Alex Wszolek 1.22 | 63% | 5–1 (83%) | +1.2 |
| 3 | Birmingham Public Schools Varsity | 3 | 2.62 school −0.11 | Michael Mullins / Nate Bacheller 1.43 Gavin Swallow / Sean Ellison 0.50 Luke Strickland / Marko Nedeljkovic 0.77 | 33% | 2–4 (33%) | +0.0 |
| 4 | Troy High School Troy | 4 | 2.22 school +0.33 | Nicole Torkos / Bella Satterfield Dane Greenwood / Sophia Worden 0.75 Monika Torkos / Jacob Ritter 0.73 | 25% | 0–6 (0%) | −1.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | West Bloomfield High School | 3.95 | 5.59 | 5–1 | 3.8 | +1.64 | 1.1 | 25% |
| 1 | Latin School of Chicago | 4.76 | 5.14 | 5–1 | 4.8 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 63% |
| 3 | Birmingham Public Schools | 2.62 | 2.63 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 4 | Troy High School | 2.22 | -0.78 | 0–6 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenic Sacchetti | Latin School of Chicago | 0.55 | 0.92 | 5–1 | 4.8 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 63% |
| Michael Mullins | Birmingham Public Schools | 1.43 | 1.44 | 2–4 | 2.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 67% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Latin School of Chicago | Birmingham Public Schools | 84% | |
| 1 | 2 | West Bloomfield High School | Troy High School | 80% | |
| 1 | 3 | Latin School of Chicago | Troy High School | 88% | |
| 1 | 4 | West Bloomfield High School | Birmingham Public Schools | 74% | |
| 1 | 5 | Latin School of Chicago | West Bloomfield High School | 65% | |
| 1 | 6 | Birmingham Public Schools | Troy High School | 58% | |
| 2 | 7 | Latin School of Chicago | Birmingham Public Schools | 84% | |
| 2 | 8 | West Bloomfield High School | Troy High School | 79% | |
| 2 | 9 | Latin School of Chicago | Troy High School | 88% | |
| 2 | 10 | West Bloomfield High School | Birmingham Public Schools | 74% | |
| 2 | 11 | West Bloomfield High School | Latin School of Chicago | 35% | upset |
| 2 | 12 | Birmingham Public Schools | Troy High School | 58% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Troy | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Romans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Troy | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Romans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Troy | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Romans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Troy | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Romans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Troy | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Lakers Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Romans | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Troy | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | Christian Prendergast '24 Domenic Sacchetti '23 Timothy Hesse '23 |
Maya Mahoney '23 Emery Sularz '25 Emily Marlas '22 |
|
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | Brent Armstrong '25 Vinny Paliga '24 Walter Paliga '22 |
Alex Wszolek '25 Jack Armstrong '25 Liam Gilin '25 |
|
Birmingham Public Schools | Varsity | Gavin Swallow '22 Luke Strickland '22 Michael Mullins '23 |
Sean Ellison '25 Marko Nedeljkovic '24 Nate Bacheller '24 |
|
Troy High School | Troy | Dane Greenwood '23 Monika Torkos '23 Nicole Torkos '25 |
Sophia Worden '23 Jacob Ritter '24 Bella Satterfield '24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
