Shepherd Championship

HostFenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young
Date11/07/2020
TypeState Championship
BoatC420
Scoring4 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	C	D	TOT
1	Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	52	14	59	47	172
2	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	57	58	25	44	184
3	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	60	61	65	66	252
4	Latin School of Chicago	Romans	81	52	61	79	273
5	Jones College Prep	Eagles	37	76	136	71	320
6	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	85	58	59	128	330
7	Lincoln Park High School	Varsity	68	78	141	45	332
8	New Trier HS	Trevian	75	84	81	132	372
9	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	153	26	52	148	379
10	Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	96	93	99	95	383
11	New Trier HS	Mixed	147	79	154	73	453
12	Fenwick High School	Friars	102	103	100	161	466
13	Whitney Young	Dolphins	136	59	168	129	492
14	Lyons Township High School	Lions	139	125	138	94	496
15	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Mixed	152	116	113	129	510

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Jones College Prep	Eagles	1	3	2	1	3	2	1	4	1	7	4	8	37	Emmett Nevel '21 Maddie Fitzgerald '22
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	8	1	1	10	7	1	3	5	2	6	7	1	52	Henry Scholz '23 Mary Carter '24
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	2	8	6	2	1	7	4	3	5	4	9	6	57	Philip Lengyel '21 Benjamin Luu '23
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	7	5	3	5	8	3	6	1	4	3	3	12	60	Lexi Chigas '22 Grace Beard '21
Lincoln Park High School	Varsity	3	2	4	9	4	6	9	2	7	8	12	2	68	Samuel Childers '23 Miles Silverman '23
New Trier HS	Trevian	12	9	10	3	2	4	8	7	3	5	5	7	75	George Barton '22 Molly Morris '21
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	9	6	7	4	6	10	5	8	8	2	6	10	81	Christian Prendergast '24 Emily Marlas '22
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	4	7	5	7	10	5	7	6	10	11	8	5	85	Wyatt Harley '21 Frances Depke '21
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	6	4	15	6	5	8	2	9	12	13	13	3	96	Michal Janowicz '21 Reagan Long '21
Fenwick High School	Friars	5	11	13	11	12	9	10	12	13	1	1	4	102	David Ren '24 Lydia Frost '25
Whitney Young	Dolphins	10	12	12	13	11	12	11	10	14	15	2	14	136	Evan Olevich '23 Phillip Nakamura '23
Lyons Township High School	Lions	14	13	9	12	14	11	12	11	11	12	11	9	139	Gavin Dempsey '22 Aidan Walls '21
New Trier HS	Mixed	13	10	14	8	15	15	15	13	9	10	14	11	147
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Mixed	15	15	8	14	9	13	14	15	15	9	10	15	152
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	11	14	11	15	13	14	13	14	6	14	15	13	153	Daniel Sandoval '22 Monica Anderson '23

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	1	3	1	1	1	2	2	2	1	14	Charlie Gish '24 Paige Roby '23
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	6	1	5	3	3	1	3	1	3	26	Jack Baldwin '22 Olivia Schmitt '22
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	5	4	8	2	13	3	6	9	2	52	Mike Wissink '24 Tejas Vidali '21
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	7	6	10	5	11	5	5	3	6	58	Benny Wild '22 Adler Wright '22
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	11	7	2	12	7	4	1	4	10	58	Cecily Marden '21 Kate Robbins '21
Whitney Young	Dolphins	2	2	3	11	10	6	10	10	5	59	Margo Cicero '22 Rossignel Wolfe '22
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	4	12	4	4	2	8	12	6	9	61	Jimmy Sohigian '24 Eleanor Brady '22
Jones College Prep	Eagles	3	5	6	8	14	13	11	12	4	76	Jake Weinstein '23 Peter Stewart '24
Lincoln Park High School	Varsity	9	9	14	7	6	7	4	14	8	78	Dylan Altmin '24 Dylan Altmin '24
New Trier HS	Mixed	13	8	11	6	4	9	8	8	12	79
New Trier HS	Trevian	8	14	13	10	9	11	7	5	7	84	Calvin Lutton '22 Sarah Trunsky '21
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	12	10	12	9	5	14	9	11	11	93	Alec Ranker '24 Gavin Roby '24
Fenwick High School	Friars	15	13	9	13	8	12	13	7	13	103	Aidan Soule '25 Sam Kulisek '23
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Mixed	14	11	7	15	12	10	15	DNS	DNS	116
Lyons Township High School	Lions	10	15	15	14	15	15	14	13	14	125	Keg Avakian '22 Ali Jensen '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	4	1	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	5	4	1	25	Elizabeth Frost '23 Bryan Pan '23
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	3	3	4	1	9	6	6	3	5	3	5	4	52	Luke Goldman '21 Aidan Kiergan '23
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	6	11	5	5	8	10	2	2	2	4	2	2	59	Rem Johannknecht '22 Lucy Harley '23
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	8	6	1	3	1	5	5	12	3	6	3	6	59	Tristan Mcdonald '24 Kyle Mcdonald '23
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	10	2	3	7	6	2	3	9	4	2	8	5	61	Timothy Hesse '23 [1-12] Domenic Sacchetti '23 [1-6] Maya Mahoney '23 [7-12]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	7	4	6	11	4	3	8	5	6	1	1	9	65	Santiago Echevarria '22 Fiona Naughton '22
New Trier HS	Trevian	1	5	10	4	3	9	4	10	8	9	10	8	81	Quin Doughty '21 Will Broseman '22
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	5	9	13	8	5	12	13	6	9	10	6	3	99	Isaac Martinez '23 Semo Zitouni '24
Fenwick High School	Friars	13	8	14	10	7	8	7	4	7	8	7	7	100	Sydney Mandell '22 Lauren Mellinger '21
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Mixed	9	12	7	6	10	4	11	8	12	12	12	10	113
Jones College Prep	Eagles	15	10	12	9	11	7	DNF	DNS	11	7	9	13	136	Molly Sheridan '21 Betsy Finley '23
Lyons Township High School	Lions	14	7	9	14	12	15	9	7	13	14	13	11	138	Nick Lorenzen '23 Charles Behm '21
Lincoln Park High School	Varsity	2	13	11	12	DNF	13	10	11	14	11	14	14	141	Gretchen Nevel '23 Julia Risk '23
New Trier HS	Mixed	12	14	15	15	13	14	12	13	10	13	11	12	154
Whitney Young	Dolphins	11	15	8	13	14	11	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	168	Audra Spokas-Jaros '21 Alex Gaspar '23

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	11	2	2	2	2	2	3	1	7	1	8	3	44	Elias Sveen Erling '22 Amy Ren '23
Lincoln Park High School	Varsity	1	1	4	4	5	3	2	2	3	4	12	4	45	Lauren Mellinger '21 Sydney Mandell '22
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	3	9	6	1	4	4	1	3	9	3	2	2	47	Leo Kumar '23 Rachel Pogany '23
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	2	4	9	6	1	7	8	11	4	5	4	5	66	Natalia Bretones '23 Julia Bogdanowicz '21
Jones College Prep	Eagles	7	6	12	7	3	12	9	5	2	6	1	1	71	David Eskilson '22 Joseph Dunning '23
New Trier HS	Mixed	6	8	1	5	6	1	6	10	8	9	7	6	73
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	8	11	7	8	7	11	4	4	5	2	3	9	79	Will Turula '24 Jack Turula '22
Lyons Township High School	Lions	13	5	3	9	12	6	7	6	6	8	11	8	94	Michael Avakian '23 Julian Jenkins '23
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	4	3	11	3	11	9	5	12	15	7	5	10	95	Matthew Ranker '24 Hayden Gaston '24
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	10	14	13	10	10	13	12	13	1	11	6	15	128	Natalie Becker-Stevens '22 Chloe Reger '24
Whitney Young	Dolphins	9	12	15	12	8	8	13	8	10	13	14	7	129	Oscar Gilroy '23 Cassidy Skafish '22
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Mixed	12	7	5	11	14	10	11	9	14	12	13	11	129
New Trier HS	Trevian	5	10	10	15	9	5	15	14	12	15	10	12	132	Peter Smith '21 Amit Patel '21
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	15	13	8	13	13	15	14	7	13	14	9	14	148	Jack Duffy '23 Katherine Anderson '23
Fenwick High School	Friars	14	DNS	14	14	15	14	10	15	11	10	15	13	161	Julia Overmyer '23 William Carl '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Fenwick High School Friars	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Jones College Prep Eagles	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Lake Forest High School Scouts 1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Lake Forest High School Scouts 2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Latin School of Chicago Romans	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lincoln Park High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Loyola Academy Ramblers	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lyons Township High School Lions	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
New Trier HS Mixed	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
New Trier HS Trevian	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Mixed	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Whitney Young Dolphins	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Fenwick High School Friars	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Jones College Prep Eagles	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Lake Forest High School Scouts 1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Lake Forest High School Scouts 2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Latin School of Chicago Romans	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lincoln Park High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Loyola Academy Ramblers	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lyons Township High School Lions	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
New Trier HS Mixed	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
New Trier HS Trevian	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Mixed	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Whitney Young Dolphins	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C	5C	6C	7C	8C	9C	10C	11C	12C
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Fenwick High School Friars	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Jones College Prep Eagles	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Lake Forest High School Scouts 1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Lake Forest High School Scouts 2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Latin School of Chicago Romans	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lincoln Park High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Loyola Academy Ramblers	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lyons Township High School Lions	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
New Trier HS Mixed	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
New Trier HS Trevian	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Mixed	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Whitney Young Dolphins	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

Division D

Team	1D	2D	3D	4D	5D	6D	7D	8D	9D	10D	11D	12D
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Fenwick High School Friars	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Jones College Prep Eagles	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Lake Forest High School Scouts 1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Lake Forest High School Scouts 2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Latin School of Chicago Romans	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lincoln Park High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Loyola Academy Ramblers	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lyons Township High School Lions	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
New Trier HS Mixed	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
New Trier HS Trevian	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Mixed	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Whitney Young Dolphins	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Fenwick High School	David Ren '24	Lydia Frost '25
Friars	Aidan Soule '25	Sam Kulisek '23
	Sydney Mandell '22	Lauren Mellinger '21
	Julia Overmyer '23	William Carl '23
Jones College Prep	Emmett Nevel '21	Maddie Fitzgerald '22
Eagles	Jake Weinstein '23	Peter Stewart '24
	Molly Sheridan '21	Betsy Finley '23
	David Eskilson '22	Joseph Dunning '23
Lake Forest High School	Henry Scholz '23	Mary Carter '24
Scouts 1	Charlie Gish '24	Paige Roby '23
	Tristan Mcdonald '24	Kyle Mcdonald '23
	Leo Kumar '23	Rachel Pogany '23
Lake Forest High School	Michal Janowicz '21	Reagan Long '21
Scouts 2	Alec Ranker '24	Gavin Roby '24
	Isaac Martinez '23	Semo Zitouni '24
	Matthew Ranker '24	Hayden Gaston '24
Latin School of Chicago	Christian Prendergast '24	Emily Marlas '22
Romans	Mike Wissink '24	Tejas Vidali '21
	Timothy Hesse '23 [1-12]	Domenic Sacchetti '23 [1-6] Maya Mahoney '23 [7-12]
	Will Turula '24	Jack Turula '22
Lincoln Park High School	Samuel Childers '23	Miles Silverman '23
Varsity	Dylan Altmin '24	Dylan Altmin '24
	Gretchen Nevel '23	Julia Risk '23
	Lauren Mellinger '21	Sydney Mandell '22
Loyola Academy	Lexi Chigas '22	Grace Beard '21
Ramblers	Jimmy Sohigian '24	Eleanor Brady '22
	Santiago Echevarria '22	Fiona Naughton '22
	Natalia Bretones '23	Julia Bogdanowicz '21
Lyons Township High School	Gavin Dempsey '22	Aidan Walls '21
Lions	Keg Avakian '22	Ali Jensen '22
	Nick Lorenzen '23	Charles Behm '21
	Michael Avakian '23	Julian Jenkins '23
New Trier HS	George Barton '22	Molly Morris '21
Trevian	Calvin Lutton '22	Sarah Trunsky '21
	Quin Doughty '21	Will Broseman '22
	Peter Smith '21	Amit Patel '21
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Daniel Sandoval '22	Monica Anderson '23
Wolfpack	Jack Baldwin '22	Olivia Schmitt '22
	Luke Goldman '21	Aidan Kiergan '23
	Jack Duffy '23	Katherine Anderson '23
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Philip Lengyel '21	Benjamin Luu '23
Maroons	Benny Wild '22	Adler Wright '22
	Elizabeth Frost '23	Bryan Pan '23
	Elias Sveen Erling '22	Amy Ren '23
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Wyatt Harley '21	Frances Depke '21
Grizzlies	Cecily Marden '21	Kate Robbins '21
	Rem Johannknecht '22	Lucy Harley '23
	Natalie Becker-Stevens '22	Chloe Reger '24
Whitney Young	Evan Olevich '23	Phillip Nakamura '23
Dolphins	Margo Cicero '22	Rossignel Wolfe '22
	Audra Spokas-Jaros '21	Alex Gaspar '23
	Oscar Gilroy '23	Cassidy Skafish '22

Conditions — 11/07/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1021.2 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.7 kn

avg · max 13.4 kn

Gusts to 21.6 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1021.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn · S 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Fenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.21 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Fenwick/Jones College Prep/Lane Tech College Pr/Lyons Township/U Chicago Laboratory/Whitney Young: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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