MISSA Central Baker Qualifier

HostLake Forest Sailing
Date04/22/2023
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	14–0
2	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	9–5
3	New Trier HS	Trevian	8–6
4	Latin School of Chicago	Romans	8–6
5	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	8–6
6	Jones College Prep	Eagles	7–7
7	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	5–7
8	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	3–9
9	Lake Forest Academy	Varsity	3–9
10	Beacon Academy	Trailblazers	1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,491 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 66 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.430 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 52% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Lake Forest High School Scouts	1	7.38 school +0.50	Charlie Gish / Maddie Rode 2.43 13–0 Henry Scholz / Mary Carter 2.46 12–0 Tristan Mcdonald / Jack Carter 1.76 12–0 Owen Kohut / Jackson Schwartz 2.50 5–0	90%	14–0 (100%)	+1.4
2	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	4	5.09 school −0.34	Peter Barnard / Sofia Sandoval 2.76 Avery Baldwin / Jack Duffy 2.10 Matthew Schmitt / Thomas Snyder	59%	9–5 (64%)	+0.7
3	New Trier HS Trevian	7	3.76	Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia / Mallory Dieball Izzy Rietz / Lucy Elvart Nathan Finkelstein / Bennett Waters	36%	8–6 (57%)	+3.0
4	Latin School of Chicago Romans	5	5.04 school +0.17	Christian Prendergast / Maya Mahoney 2.56 Timothy Hesse / Emery Sularz 1.78 Domenic Sacchetti / Laine Reshefsky 0.43	58%	8–6 (57%)	−0.2
5	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	6	4.45 school −0.06	Elizabeth Frost / Lydia Frost 1.89 Bryan Pan / Clara Blucher Jack Colyer / Amy Ren	48%	8–6 (57%)	+1.2
6	Jones College Prep Eagles	2	5.20 school −0.23	Peter Stewart / Orla Gilroy Jake Weinstein / Gavin Eskilson 1.66 Grace Renz / Damian Amoruso 5–3 Nissa Berman / Georgia Beal 2–4	62%	7–7 (50%)	−1.7
7	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	3	4.40 school +0.35	Deana Fedulova / Aidan Elliot 2.11 Lake Linebaugh / Lucia Duffy Henry Chen / Matthew Pfeiffer	61%	5–7 (42%)	−2.4
8	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	9	2.01 school +0.07	Bennett Gottesman / Harper Jamison 0.50 Finn Mcdaniel / Miles Dechant Dechant Quinn Stevens / Annie Miller 0.69	22%	3–9 (25%)	+0.4
9	Lake Forest Academy Varsity	8	2.81 home +0.14	Elise Brandt / Lukacs Khorzad Matthew Sexton / No Show 0.83 Mimi Sexton / Myles Haight	34%	3–9 (25%)	−1.1
10	Beacon Academy Trailblazers	10	1.86	Noah Blake / Stella Brown 0.87 Merritt Woolridge / Gavin Parsons Gretchen Nevel / Levi Gell 0.43	20%	1–11 (8%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Lake Forest High School	7.38	10.38	14–0	12.6	≥+3.00	1.9	23%
3	New Trier HS	3.76	5.22	8–6	5.0	+1.46	2.5	6%
5	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	4.45	5.05	8–6	6.7	+0.60	0.4	32%
2	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	5.09	5.43	9–5	8.3	+0.34	0.1	46%
8	Evanston Township HS	2.01	2.27	3–9	2.6	+0.26	0.1	52%
4	Latin School of Chicago	5.04	4.95	8–6	8.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
9	Lake Forest Academy	2.81	2.06	3–9	4.1	−0.75	0.5	88%
6	Jones College Prep	5.20	4.41	7–7	8.7	−0.79	0.7	91%
7	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	4.40	3.01	5–7	7.4	−1.39	1.9	98%
10	Beacon Academy	1.86	0.45	1–11	2.3	−1.41	1.0	94%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Charlie Gish	Lake Forest High School	2.43	5.43	13–0	11.6	≥+3.00	1.9	23%
Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia	New Trier HS	1.19	2.64	8–6	5.0	+1.46	2.5	6%
Izzy Rietz	New Trier HS	1.22	2.67	8–6	5.0	+1.46	2.5	6%
Bryan Pan	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	1.28	1.89	8–6	6.7	+0.60	0.4	32%
Jack Colyer	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	1.19	1.79	8–6	6.7	+0.60	0.4	32%
Avery Baldwin	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	2.10	2.44	9–5	8.3	+0.34	0.1	46%
Bennett Gottesman	Evanston Township HS	0.50	0.77	3–9	2.6	+0.26	0.1	52%
Finn Mcdaniel	Evanston Township HS	0.46	0.72	3–9	2.6	+0.26	0.1	52%
Quinn Stevens	Evanston Township HS	0.69	0.96	3–9	2.6	+0.26	0.1	52%
Domenic Sacchetti	Latin School of Chicago	0.43	0.34	8–6	8.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Lake Linebaugh	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	0.97	-0.43	5–7	7.4	−1.39	1.9	98%
Henry Chen	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	0.73	-0.66	5–7	7.4	−1.39	1.9	98%
Noah Blake	Beacon Academy	0.87	-0.54	1–11	2.3	−1.41	1.0	94%
Merritt Woolridge	Beacon Academy	0.34	-1.08	1–11	2.3	−1.41	1.0	94%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Latin School of Chicago	Beacon Academy	93%
1	2	Lake Forest High School	Evanston Township HS	99%
1	3	New Trier HS	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	37%	upset
1	4	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Lake Forest Academy	80%
1	5	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Jones College Prep	47%	upset
1	6	Lake Forest High School	Latin School of Chicago	85%
1	7	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Beacon Academy	88%
1	8	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Evanston Township HS	88%
1	9	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	New Trier HS	75%
1	10	Jones College Prep	Lake Forest Academy	86%
1	11	Lake Forest High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	91%
1	12	Latin School of Chicago	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	62%
1	13	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Beacon Academy	92%
1	14	Evanston Township HS	Lake Forest Academy	35%	upset
1	15	Jones College Prep	New Trier HS	77%
1	16	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	51%
1	17	Lake Forest High School	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	85%
1	18	Latin School of Chicago	Lake Forest Academy	85%
1	19	New Trier HS	Beacon Academy	81%
1	20	Jones College Prep	Evanston Township HS	92%
1	21	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	62%
1	22	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Lake Forest Academy	78%
1	23	Lake Forest High School	New Trier HS	96%
1	24	Latin School of Chicago	Evanston Township HS	91%
1	25	Jones College Prep	Beacon Academy	93%
1	26	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Lake Forest Academy	85%
1	27	New Trier HS	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	37%	upset
1	28	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Evanston Township HS	87%
1	29	Lake Forest High School	Beacon Academy	99%
1	30	Latin School of Chicago	Jones College Prep	47%	upset
1	31	New Trier HS	Lake Forest Academy	67%
1	32	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Evanston Township HS	92%
1	33	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Beacon Academy	88%
1	34	Latin School of Chicago	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	62%
1	35	Lake Forest High School	Jones College Prep	83%
1	36	New Trier HS	Evanston Township HS	79%
1	37	Lake Forest Academy	Beacon Academy	68%
1	38	Latin School of Chicago	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	49%	upset
1	39	Lake Forest High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	90%
1	40	Jones College Prep	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	64%
1	41	Evanston Township HS	Beacon Academy	53%
1	42	New Trier HS	Latin School of Chicago	28%	upset
1	43	Lake Forest High School	Lake Forest Academy	97%
1	44	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	62%
1	45	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Jones College Prep	35%	upset
1	46	Lake Forest High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	90%
1	47	Latin School of Chicago	New Trier HS	72%
1	48	Jones College Prep	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	53%
1	49	New Trier HS	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	38%	upset
1	50	Lake Forest High School	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	84%
1	51	Jones College Prep	Latin School of Chicago	54%
1	52	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	New Trier HS	73%
1	53	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Latin School of Chicago	39%	upset
1	54	Lake Forest High School	Jones College Prep	83%
1	55	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Latin School of Chicago	52%
1	56	Lake Forest High School	New Trier HS	96%
1	57	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Jones College Prep	34%	upset
1	58	Lake Forest High School	Latin School of Chicago	85%
1	59	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	37%	upset
1	60	New Trier HS	Jones College Prep	24%	upset
1	61	Beacon Academy	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	12%	upset
1	62	Lake Forest Academy	Evanston Township HS	65%
1	63	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Lake Forest Academy	77%
1	64	Evanston Township HS	Beacon Academy	54%
1	65	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Evanston Township HS	86%
1	66	Lake Forest Academy	Beacon Academy	69%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Romans	1-2-5	def.	Trailblazers	3-4-6
2	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Wildkits	4-5-6
3	Trevian	1-3-6	def.	Grizzlies	2-4-5
4	Maroons	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
5	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
6	Scouts	1-2-4	def.	Romans	3-5-6
7	Grizzlies	1-2-5	def.	Trailblazers	3-4-6
8	Maroons	1-3-4	def.	Wildkits	2-5-6
9	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Trevian	3-4-6
10	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
11	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Grizzlies	3-4-5
12	Romans	2-3-4	def.	Maroons	1-5-6
13	Wolfpack	1-2-3	def.	Trailblazers	4-5-6
14	Wildkits	1-3-4	def.	Varsity	2-5-6
15	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Trevian	3-4-5
16	Maroons	1-2-3	def.	Grizzlies	4-5-6
17	Scouts	1-2-5	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-6
18	Romans	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
19	Trevian	1-2-5	def.	Trailblazers	3-4-6
20	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Wildkits	3-5-6
21	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
22	Grizzlies	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
23	Scouts	1-3-4	def.	Trevian	2-5-6
24	Romans	1-2-4	def.	Wildkits	3-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Trailblazers	4-5-6
26	Wolfpack	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
27	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
28	Grizzlies	1-2-4	def.	Wildkits	3-5-6
29	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Trailblazers	4-5-6
30	Romans	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
31	Trevian	2-3-5	def.	Varsity	1-4-6
32	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Wildkits	3-4-5
33	Maroons	1-3-4	def.	Trailblazers	2-5-6
34	Romans	1-3-5	def.	Grizzlies	2-4-6
35	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
36	Trevian	1-3-4	def.	Wildkits	2-5-6
37	Varsity	1-3-4	def.	Trailblazers	2-5-6
38	Romans	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
39	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Grizzlies	3-4-5
41	Wildkits	1-2-6	def.	Trailblazers	3-4-5
42	Trevian	2-3-5	def.	Romans	1-4-6
43	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
44	Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.	Grizzlies	3-4-5
45	Maroons	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
46	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
47	Romans	1-2-5	def.	Trevian	3-4-6
48	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Wolfpack	2-4-6
49	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
50	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Wolfpack	1-5-6
51	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Romans	1-5-6
52	Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.	Trevian	3-4-6
53	Maroons	1-2-4	def.	Romans	3-5-6
54	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
55	Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.	Romans	3-5-6
56	Scouts	1-3-5	def.	Trevian	2-4-6
57	Maroons	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
58	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Romans	4-5-6
59	Maroons	1-2-6	def.	Wolfpack	3-4-5
60	Trevian	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
61	Trailblazers	1-2-6	def.	Grizzlies	3-4-5
62	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Wildkits	3-4-5
63	Grizzlies	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
64	Wildkits	1-2-4	def.	Trailblazers	3-5-6
65	Grizzlies	1-4-5	def.	Wildkits	2-3-6
66	Varsity	1-2-3	def.	Trailblazers	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Charlie Gish '24 Henry Scholz '23 Owen Kohut '25 Tristan Mcdonald '24	Maddie Rode '26 Mary Carter '24 Jackson Schwartz '25 Jack Carter '27
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	Avery Baldwin '25 Matthew Schmitt '25 Peter Barnard '23	Jack Duffy '23 Thomas Snyder '23 Sofia Sandoval '25
New Trier HS	Trevian	Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Izzy Rietz '23 Nathan Finkelstein '26	Mallory Dieball '24 Lucy Elvart '24 Bennett Waters '26
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	Christian Prendergast '24 Domenic Sacchetti '23 Timothy Hesse '23	Maya Mahoney '23 Laine Reshefsky '24 Emery Sularz '25
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	Bryan Pan '23 Elizabeth Frost '23 Jack Colyer '25	Clara Blucher '26 Lydia Frost '25 Amy Ren '23
Jones College Prep	Eagles	Grace Renz '26 Jake Weinstein '23 Nissa Berman '26 Peter Stewart '24	Damian Amoruso '26 Gavin Eskilson '25 Georgia Beal '24 Orla Gilroy '25
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	Deana Fedulova '24 Henry Chen '26 Lake Linebaugh '26	Aidan Elliot '23 Matthew Pfeiffer '25 Lucia Duffy '25
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	Bennett Gottesman '23 Finn Mcdaniel '24 Quinn Stevens '23	Harper Jamison '24 Miles Dechant Dechant '23 Annie Miller '23
Lake Forest Academy	Varsity	Elise Brandt '26 Matthew Sexton '24 Mimi Sexton '26	Lukacs Khorzad '26 No Show Myles Haight '26
Beacon Academy	Trailblazers	Gretchen Nevel '23 Merritt Woolridge '23 Noah Blake '23	Levi Gell '24 Gavin Parsons '24 Stella Brown '23

Conditions — 04/22/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.2 kn

avg · max 11.5 kn

Gusts to 24.5 kn

From W (268°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine4.6 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1011.0 hPa Rain0.04 in Snow0.16 in

What this breeze does at Lake Forest Sailing — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Lake Forest Sailing in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest Sailing by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Lake Forest Sailing, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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