Evanston Township HS '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 (fleet 0.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–15 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 5–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 8–15 against 5.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.69 | 0.96 | 3–9 | 2.6 | +0.26 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2022-04-09 | MISSA CENTRAL BAKER QUALIFIER | skipper | 0.51 | 2.18 | 5–6 | 2.5 | +1.68 | 2.5 | 6% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Keelboat Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 2.9 | — |
| 2022 Keelboat National Invational Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 10.0 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA MALLORY QUALIFIER (District Championship) | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.0 | 0.34 |
| MISSA CENTRAL BAKER QUALIFIER | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Banks Blackwell - Central GLQ | Crew | A | 2 | 13.5 | — |
| 2021 Fall Scramble | Skipper | A | 3 | 18.0 | -0.91 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Varsity In-house Zarmy | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.2 | -0.97 |
| Latin School of Chicago Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 10.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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