Beacon Academy '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.18 (fleet 0.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 1–11 (8%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 1–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 1–11 against 2.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | crew | 0.43 | -0.98 | 1–11 | 2.3 | −1.41 | 1.0 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier Silver | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 0.56 |
| MISSA GOQ RED | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.5 | -0.11 |
| MISSA Central GLC Quals | Skipper | A | 2 | 12.0 | -1.19 |
| Grosse Ile Open Great Lakes Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | -0.61 |
| 2023 Kick Off Classic | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 0.83 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| CYC 2023 MISSA Icebreaker | Crew | A | 6 | 11.8 | -0.03 |
| MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | Crew | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| 2023 Illinois State Championships | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.3 | -0.21 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Banks Blackwell Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.2 | -0.50 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Tier 3 Regatta - Oct. 2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 14.6 | -0.77 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| New Trier Regatta | Crew | B | — | — | — |
| Fall 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Varsity In-house Zarmy #5 | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | -0.35 |
| JV Zarmy House #2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.8 | 0.43 |
| JV Zarmy House #1 | Skipper | A | 1 | 18.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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