Tier 3 Regatta - Oct. 2

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 9 9
2 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 2 18 18
3 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 19 19
4 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 31 31
5 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 32 32
6 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 5 34 34
7 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 4 40 40
8 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 3 40 40
9 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 41 41
10 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 3 51 51
11 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1 57 57
12 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 63 63
13 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 3 68 68
14 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 2 69 69
15 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 6 70 70
16 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 4 73 73
17 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Trailblazers 73 73
18 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 1 86 86
19 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 92 92
20 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 95 95
21 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 96 96
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 1 3 1 1 3 9 Keegan Chatburn '25
Mary Carter '24
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 2 2 7 2 2 5 18 Oliver Gray '25
Emery Sularz '25
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 9 1 3 4 2 19 Matthew Ranker '24
Gavin Roby '24
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 8 6 5 6 6 31 Taylor Rode '23
Paige Roby '23
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 5 9 6 3 9 32 Santiago Benes '24
James O'Toole '23
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 5 OCS 2 4 5 1 34 Elise Brandt '25
Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia '26
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 4 3 5 14 11 7 40 William Styslinger '24
Skye Elzaurdia '23
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 3 6 4 8 8 14 40 Peter Garrison '24
No Show
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 7 8 7 7 12 41 Jack Bezaitis '23
Rohil Bose '23
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 3 10 11 9 17 4 51 Eva Decastro '24
Annabel Rush '23
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1 4 15 15 15 8 57 Thomas Snyder '23
Niklas Swanson '24
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 13 14 10 13 13 63 Katja Siebrits '24
Caden Greco '24
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 3 18 13 17 10 10 68 Evan O'Connor '23
Henry Ramsey '25
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 2 14 20 11 9 15 69 Christopher Sawicz '24
Sofia Sandoval '25
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 6 11 12 18 12 17 70 Karis Laplante '23
Ava Pankauskas '24
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 4 12 10 13 20 18 73 Kate Dischner '24
David Szymanski '24
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Trailblazers 16 18 12 16 11 73 Levi Gell '24
Elias Dunn '23
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 1 15 21 20 14 16 86 Kira Mahoney '25
Laine Reshefsky '24
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 17 19 19 18 19 92 No Show
Nicholas Neenan '23
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 19 17 16 21 DNS 95 Parker Lofstrom-Austin '24
No Show
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 20 16 21 19 20 96 Leo Zematis '23
Connor Vannatta '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Trailblazers1616161616
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 11919191919
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 21515151515
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 333333
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 411111
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 11717171717
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 21414141414
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts 31818181818
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Romans 12121212121
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Romans 22020202020
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 11111111111
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 244444
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 322222
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 155555
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 266666
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 377777
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 488888
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 599999
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 61010101010
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSaint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 11212121212
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSaint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 21313131313

Conditions — 10/02/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.6 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From SSW (207°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.4 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1014.5 hPa Rain0.28 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Chicago Yacht Club: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.56 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Chicago Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Chicago Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →