Beacon Academy '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.29 (fleet 0.48) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–11 (8%) as crew 1–8 (11%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 1–11 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | — | 1–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 2–19 against 4.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.34 | -1.08 | 1–11 | 2.3 | −1.41 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2022-04-09 | MISSA CENTRAL BAKER QUALIFIER | crew | 0.30 | -1.20 | 1–8 | 2.1 | −1.50 | 0.9 | 95% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| May Madness Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.2 | 1.05 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yeah Buoy! Regatta 2022 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 0.75 |
| Banks Blackwell Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.0 | -0.78 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA CENTRAL MALLORY QUALIFIER | Crew | B | 3 | 9.7 | — |
| MISSA CENTRAL BAKER QUALIFIER | Crew | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Shepherd Championship | Crew | A | 2 | 13.5 | — |
| Kick Off Classic | Crew | A | 6 | 11.7 | — |
| Art Johnson | Skipper | A | 8 | 22.0 | -2.97 |
| Fall 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Zarmy Varsity House #4 | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
| Varsity Zarmy House #2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.7 | -0.56 |
| Varsity In-house Zarmy #5 | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 0.09 |
| Varsity Zarmy House #1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 15.3 | -1.25 |
| House Varsity Zarmy #3 | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 1.32 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Lake Max Fall Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 16.7 | -3.51 |
| Halloween Spectacular | Skipper | A, B | 5 | 21.2 | -2.87 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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