Lake Forest Academy '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.98 (fleet 1.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–9 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 3–9 against 4.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.05 | 0.30 | 3–9 | 4.1 | −0.75 | 0.5 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.8 | 0.30 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier Gold | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 0.25 |
| MISSA GOQ RED | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.0 | 0.62 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Central Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.2 | 1.11 |
| 2023 MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.7 | 0.93 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Elise Brandt |  New Trier HS |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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