| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 13–2 |
| 2 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | 12–3 |
| 3 |  |
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | Maroons | 7–8 |
| 4 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 7–8 |
| 5 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 3–12 |
| 6 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | 3–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,326 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 45 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.577 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.26 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 24% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Forest High School | 6.73 | 8.08 | 13–2 | 10.6 | +1.35 | 1.6 | 13% |
| 3 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 4.50 | 5.74 | 7–8 | 4.0 | +1.24 | 2.1 | 7% |
| 2 | Grosse Pointe South High School | 6.63 | 7.45 | 12–3 | 10.3 | +0.82 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 6 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 4.27 | 4.01 | 3–12 | 3.5 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 4 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 5.89 | 5.44 | 7–8 | 8.1 | −0.45 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 5 | Minnetonka High School | 5.96 | 3.57 | 3–12 | 8.4 | −2.39 | 6.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Gish | Lake Forest High School | 2.26 | 3.61 | 13–2 | 10.6 | +1.35 | 1.6 | 13% |
| Benny Wild | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 1.52 | 2.76 | 7–8 | 4.0 | +1.24 | 2.1 | 7% |
| David Ren | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 1.49 | 2.72 | 7–8 | 4.0 | +1.24 | 2.1 | 7% |
| Doug Cowan | Grosse Pointe South High School | 2.12 | 2.94 | 12–3 | 10.3 | +0.82 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Tristan Tucker | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 0.74 | 0.48 | 3–12 | 3.5 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 72% |
| Avery Baldwin | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.81 | 1.36 | 7–8 | 8.1 | −0.45 | 0.3 | 82% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Scouts | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Maroons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Maroons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Blue Devils | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Blue Devils | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Maroons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Maroons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Devils | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Scouts | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Maroons | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Blue Devils | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Maroons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-3-6 |
| 39 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Maroons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Blue Devils | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Scouts | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Skippers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 1-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Blue Devils | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | Charlie Gish '24 Henry Scholz '23 Tristan Mcdonald '24 |
Paige Roby '22 Mary Carter '24 Rachel Pogany '22 Josie Janowicz '23 |
|
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue Devils | Braden Vogel '23 Doug Cowan '22 Gavin Webster '24 |
Grant Corrion '22 Eric Brieden '23 Colin Hexter '23 |
|
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | Maroons | Benny Wild '22 David Ren '24 Elizabeth Frost '23 |
Lydia Frost '24 Benjamin Luu '22 Amy Ren '23 Bryan Pan '23 |
|
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | Avery Baldwin '25 Jack Baldwin '22 Peter Barnard '23 |
Jack Duffy '23 Olivia Schmitt '22 Daniel Sandoval '22 |
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Jacob Zils '23 Max Sigel '22 Tryg Van Wyk '22 |
Lucy Zinn '24 Marley Barrett '23 Ana Stewart '23 Emma Komis '22 |
|
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | Deana Fedulova '24 Rem Johannknecht '22 Tristan Tucker '22 |
Cora Star '22 Lucia Duffy '25 Lucy Harley '23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
