Lake Michigan Invite

HostMacatawa Bay Junior Association
Date10/06/2018
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Lyons Township High School	Mixed	35	18	53
2	Grand Rapids Christian High School	GRC-EGR Mixed	39	23	62
3	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRMS Blue-mixed	13	65	78
4	New Trier HS	Trevian	42	37	79
5	Lake Forest High School	Varsity	42	45	87
6	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	67	27	94
7	Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ	56	42	98
8	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	64	48	112
9	St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Mixed	38	75	113
10	West Ottawa High School	Mixed	62	74	136
11	Whitney Young	Dolphins	72	81	153

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRMS Blue-mixed	6	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	13	Owen Bannasch '22 Lilly Neill '19
Lyons Township High School	Mixed	9	7	2	3	2	2	8	2	35	Jack Bergman '20 Olivia Niego '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Mixed	4	5	4	8	3	4	5	5	38	Kate Crannell '20 Olivia Schmitt '22
Grand Rapids Christian High School	GRC-EGR Mixed	1	2	5	6	4	6	7	8	39	Owen Steger '21 Ava Van Otteren '22
Lake Forest High School	Varsity	3	3	RAF	5	7	3	2	7	42	Brit Vondersitt '20 Tristan Mcdonald '23
New Trier HS	Trevian	7	4	6	2	5	DSQ	3	3	42	Nick Leamon '20 Molly Morris '21
Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ	10	11	8	4	8	5	6	4	56	Jenna Kozal '20 Gavin Lamphier '22
West Ottawa High School	Mixed	5	6	10	11	6	8	10	6	62	Joshua Elwood '21 Grace Gaul '22
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	2	9	3	9	10	9	11	11	64	Francis Depke '21 Kate Robbins '21
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	11	8	9	7	11	7	4	10	67	Gabe Kobza '20 Paige Roby '22
Whitney Young	Dolphins	8	10	7	10	9	10	9	9	72	Brody Schwartz '20 Neil Rockey '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Lyons Township High School	Mixed	1	1	4	3	1	3	3	2	18	Julian Bornstien '20 Christopher Connally '20
Grand Rapids Christian High School	GRC-EGR Mixed	4	4	3	1	2	2	2	5	23	Ava Van Otteren '22 Owen Steger '21
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	2	3	1	2	5	DSQ	1	1	27	Spencer Glickson '22 Kyle Mcdonald '22
New Trier HS	Trevian	5	5	2	5	3	5	6	6	37	Casey Bertocchi '22 [1-4] George Barton '22 [5-8] Cal Lutton '22 [1-4]
Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ	3	2	6	4	6	7	7	7	42	Ben Stevens '20 Dayton Mcgrail '20
Lake Forest High School	Varsity	8	10	7	6	4	1	5	4	45	Tristan Mcdonald '23 Isaac Martinez '23
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	7	6	5	7	DSQ	4	4	3	48	Robert Dazynski '21 [1-8] Kate Gallagher '21 [1-4] Rem Johannknecht '22 [5-8]
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRMS Blue-mixed	9	7	9	9	8	6	8	9	65	Lauren Scolari '20 Teresa Nunez '19
West Ottawa High School	Mixed	6	8	DNF	DNS	9	8	11	8	74	Harmon Vandenberg '22 Seth Weller '19
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Mixed	10	9	8	10	7	OCS	9	10	75	Caroline Creamer '20 Reyna Puri '22
Whitney Young	Dolphins	DNF	11	10	8	10	9	10	11	81	James Rockey '20 Anneliese Kelner '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue-mixed	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Lake Forest High School Scouts	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Lake Forest High School Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Lyons Township High School Mixed	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	6	6	8	8	10	10	1	1
New Trier HS Trevian	7	7	9	9	11	11	2	2
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Mixed	8	8	10	10	1	1	3	3
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	9	9	11	11	2	2	4	4
West Ottawa High School Mixed	10	10	1	1	3	3	5	5
Whitney Young Dolphins	11	11	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue-mixed	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Lake Forest High School Scouts	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Lake Forest High School Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Lyons Township High School Mixed	6	6	8	8	10	10	1	1
Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	7	7	9	9	11	11	2	2
New Trier HS Trevian	8	8	10	10	1	1	3	3
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Mixed	9	9	11	11	2	2	4	4
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	10	10	1	1	3	3	5	5
West Ottawa High School Mixed	11	11	2	2	4	4	6	6
Whitney Young Dolphins	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	Owen Bannasch '22	Lilly Neill '19
BRMS Blue-mixed	Lauren Scolari '20	Teresa Nunez '19
Grand Rapids Christian High School	Owen Steger '21	Ava Van Otteren '22
GRC-EGR Mixed	Ava Van Otteren '22	Owen Steger '21
Lake Forest High School	Gabe Kobza '20	Paige Roby '22
Scouts	Spencer Glickson '22	Kyle Mcdonald '22
Lake Forest High School	Brit Vondersitt '20	Tristan Mcdonald '23
Varsity	Tristan Mcdonald '23	Isaac Martinez '23
Lyons Township High School	Jack Bergman '20	Olivia Niego '20
Mixed	Julian Bornstien '20	Christopher Connally '20
Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit	Jenna Kozal '20	Gavin Lamphier '22
MUDJ	Ben Stevens '20	Dayton Mcgrail '20
New Trier HS	Nick Leamon '20	Molly Morris '21
Trevian	Casey Bertocchi '22 [1-4] George Barton '22 [5-8]	Cal Lutton '22 [1-4]
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Kate Crannell '20	Olivia Schmitt '22
Mixed	Caroline Creamer '20	Reyna Puri '22
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Francis Depke '21	Kate Robbins '21
Grizzlies	Robert Dazynski '21 [1-8]	Kate Gallagher '21 [1-4] Rem Johannknecht '22 [5-8]
West Ottawa High School	Joshua Elwood '21	Grace Gaul '22
Mixed	Harmon Vandenberg '22	Seth Weller '19
Whitney Young	Brody Schwartz '20	Neil Rockey '22
Dolphins	James Rockey '20	Anneliese Kelner '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Lake Michigan Invite

Division A

Division B

From the notes