Christchurch School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.01 (fleet 3.21) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–15 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 6–2 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 3 | 28–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (46 matches) the record is 32–14 against 29.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-23 | VISA Team Championship | skipper | 2.41 | 4.87 | 4–1 | 1.9 | +2.46 | 2.7 | 7% |
| 2021-11-06 | MASSA Gold Fall Team Championship | skipper | 2.22 | 2.74 | 13–5 | 11.9 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2021-10-23 | VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | skipper | 1.98 | 0.09 | 5–7 | 7.6 | −1.89 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 2021-10-09 | VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | skipper | 1.92 | 4.68 | 10–1 | 7.6 | +2.76 | 3.5 | 4% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Team Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| VISA HRA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.4 | 2.46 |
| VISA Christchurch Regatta 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 1.62 |
| VISA CCS Fleet Race Regatta 1 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.5 | 2.27 |
| Baker Trophy 2022 | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA York/Grafton Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.83 |
| VISA Team Race Championship and Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| VISA NA Team Race Regatta 2 | Skipper | TR | 11 | 91% | — |
| VISA Kecoughtan/Phoebus Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | 1.27 |
| VISA Fall Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.7 | 1.60 |
| VISA Christchurch Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | 1.17 |
| MASSA Gold Fall Team Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| MASSA Fleet Racing Silver Championships | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 4.37 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 2.52 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jordan Vieira |  Eckerd College |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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