| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 8–2 |
| 3 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 7–3 |
| 4 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 6–4 |
| 5 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 2–6 |
| 7 |  |
The Hague School | The Tritons | 2–6 |
| 8 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 1–7 |
| 9 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,226 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 40 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.366 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.03 ± 0.39: a typical event, more orderly than 38% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 7.42 | 9.58 | 9–1 | 6.9 | +2.16 | 2.3 | 10% |
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.53 | 8.51 | 8–2 | 5.8 | +1.98 | 2.4 | 7% |
| 7 | The Hague School The Tritons | 2.33 | 3.44 | 2–6 | 1.2 | +1.11 | 0.5 | 35% |
| 9 | Maury High School Commodores | 2.32 | 2.01 | 1–7 | 1.2 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 7.99 | 7.12 | 7–3 | 8.0 | −0.87 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 5 | Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints | 6.33 | 5.27 | 4–4 | 4.8 | −1.06 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 6 | Grafton High School Varsity | 4.04 | 2.90 | 2–6 | 2.8 | −1.14 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 4 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 7.53 | 6.36 | 6–4 | 7.5 | −1.17 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 8 | Poquoson High School Islanders | 2.85 | 1.58 | 1–7 | 1.8 | −1.27 | 0.5 | 92% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeline Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.18 | 4.70 | 8–1 | 5.6 | +2.52 | 3.1 | 5% |
| Maggie Campbell | Norfolk Collegiate School | 2.76 | 4.92 | 9–1 | 6.9 | +2.16 | 2.3 | 10% |
| William "Bo" Angus | Christchurch School | 2.03 | 4.02 | 8–2 | 5.8 | +1.98 | 2.4 | 7% |
| Huaqiu "Cho-Cho" Williams | The Hague School | 0.78 | 1.89 | 2–6 | 1.2 | +1.11 | 0.5 | 35% |
| Ava Morgan | Maury High School | 0.56 | 0.25 | 1–7 | 1.2 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 77% |
| Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro | Christchurch School | 3.28 | 2.41 | 7–3 | 8.0 | −0.87 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Cam Brewer | Poquoson High School | 0.97 | -2.03 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Evan Harris | Poquoson High School | 0.37 | -2.63 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
The Tritons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
The Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Commodores | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Saints | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
The Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Oaks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Oaks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Islanders | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-3-6 |
| 23 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Saints | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
The Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Saints | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
